Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 13’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills.

Acrisure action in late November feels built for games like this. Buffalo walks in 7-4, trying to turn a shaky middle stretch back into a real AFC push. Pittsburgh sits 6-5, bruised but very alive, with Aaron Rodgers back and a crowd that still expects Tomlin to drag this roster into January. The weather looks cold, wet and mean, exactly the kind of day where hits linger and mistakes snowball. This is not just another AFC game; it is a test of which team actually handles heavyweight stress better. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 13’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The efficiency gap says this should be Buffalo. The Bills sit around +0.123 EPA per play, with +0.153 through the air and +0.088 on the ground, which essentially means almost every snap is nudging the scoreboard in their favor. Pittsburgh is barely above water at +0.008 overall and actually losing value on rushing plays at -0.003, so their margin for error shrinks every time they hand it off. Success rate tells the same story: Buffalo is moving the chains on roughly 47.2% of snaps, while Pittsburgh sits closer to 43.6%, living in more second-and-long and third-and-medium.

Third downs tilt the same way, with Buffalo converting 43.3% and turning away 62.1% defensively, while Pittsburgh sits at 40.2% and 56.1%. Quarter splits sharpen it further, with the Bills positive in every quarter and peaking at +0.178 EPA in the third, while the Steelers go negative in both the third and fourth. That is the profile of a team that stacks quiet wins on early downs, then separates after halftime once depth, conditioning and play-calling adjustments start to matter more than vibes.

The Steelers still have a very real path, and it lives in the trenches. Buffalo’s run defense is the obvious soft spot, allowing +0.107 EPA per rush, 143.9 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry, and Pittsburgh’s offense is built to stress exactly that with 12 and 13 personnel, heavier looks and an RPO rate at 13.6%. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell get to run behind an offensive line sitting near the top 10 in run block win rate, while Buffalo is more comfortable in nickel and dime spacing than in true heavy boxes. The Bills are also missing both starting tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, against a defense that blitzes on 32.7% of dropbacks, plays man on 36.2% and already has 34 sacks, so edge pressure plus disguised second-level heat can absolutely show up.

That matches uncomfortably well with a Buffalo offense riding a three-game streak of three turnovers, their longest single-season run of sloppiness since the mid-2000s, now playing in 35-degree drizzle. If Tomlin’s defense wins first down, hammers the edges, and drags this into a field-position and takeaway contest instead of an EPA showcase, the big Buffalo graphs start wobbling fast.

Bills vs. Steelers pick, best bet

I still think the market is light at Bills -3. The spread implies a narrow field-goal game while you are holding a 0.115 EPA-per-play gap and a late-game edge where Buffalo is still at +0.101 EPA in the fourth quarter and Pittsburgh is at -0.048. The total hovering in the mid-40s keeps every point valuable, but a flat -3 gives you push protection on the exact script the market already expects. Buffalo’s 64% usage of 11 personnel, 35.9% motion rate and 26.1% play action rate all point toward a spread, motion and RPO-focused plan that attacks Pittsburgh’s 36.2% man rate with picks and crossers, rather than asking a backup tackle pair to hold up on long-developing five-man protections. The Steelers sit at 22.4% motion and lean on 13.6% RPO to simplify things for Rodgers in heavy sets, which plays right into a Bills defense that lives in nickel and dime and creates 49.9% pressure without blitzing often.

The game I see starts tight and then tilts. Early, Pittsburgh’s heavier personnel and RPOs test Buffalo’s soft run fits while Rodgers takes controlled shots off play action, and the Steelers’ blitz looks try to stress a patched Bills offensive line. As the game stretches, Buffalo’s motion and spread structures start finding answers against man coverage, James Cook keeps nudging the chains on the ground and through checkdowns, and Josh Allen’s scrambling punishes aggressive third-down calls. The quarter-by-quarter trend lines suggest the Bills’ efficiency will eventually show up on the scoreboard, especially once Pittsburgh’s offense has to chase in obvious passing situations against a pass defense sitting at -0.071 EPA per dropback. I expect some early slog and at least one wild Allen turnover, but over four quarters the structural edge wins out.

Bills 27, Steelers 20, and I’m comfortable laying -3 with Buffalo.

Best bet: Bills -3 (-110) at Steelers

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For a prop lean, James Cook 18+ rushing attempts (-130). Buffalo is averaging about 147 rushing yards per game at 5.0 a pop, and Cook’s sitting on a true feature-back role: roughly 65–70% of the carries and 75% of the backfield opportunities in recent weeks with 100+ scrimmage yards in 8 of 11. In a game where both tackles are out, the weather is mid-30s and messy, and we like Bills -3 in a script that tilts their way after halftime, it makes too much sense for them to lean into their most efficient phase (run EPA around +0.09) instead of asking Allen to drop back 40 times against a blitz rate north of 30%. Pittsburgh’s best path is shortening the game with their own run game; Buffalo’s answer is to match that with Cook, bleed clock, protect the ball after three straight three-turnover games, and let their third-down / second-half edge show up. That’s exactly the environment where 18–20 carries for Cook is a feature,

Best prop lean: James Cook 18+ rushing attempts (-130)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!