A potential nor’easter is expected to hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic this week, including some of the Philly suburbs.

The first major snowstorm of the season will likely blanket central Pennsylvania overnight Monday, with a “plowable” accumulation expected by Tuesday morning. While the southeastern part of the state won’t be getting quite as much powder, flakes are forecast for parts of Bucks, Chester and Montgomery counties. Up to an inch of snow and sleet is expected to fall between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. Tuesday, per the National Weather Service.

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With Thanksgiving barely in the rearview mirror, it might seem early for a wintry mix. The wider Philadelphia region tends to see the most accumulation in January and February, when total snowfall averages have been 7.2 inches and 8.5 inches, respectively, since 1999. December is much milder by comparison. It’s averaged 3.8 inches over the same time period, and few flakes have fallen in recent years. In 2024, the NWS reported just 0.3 inches of snow for the Philly region for December. Meteorologists observed only traces of snow, less than the smallest measurable amount, during the Decembers of 2021-2023.

The last time the early winter month saw any serious flurries was in 2020, when the NWS recorded 6.6 inches. It’s been even longer since a foot or more of snow piled up in the Philly area in December. Over the past 25 years, it’s happened only twice. The snowfall reached 12.7 inches in December 2010, and a hefty 24.1 inches in December 2009. 

The upcoming season is unlikely to upend these trends. Current NWS winter predictions for the Mid-Atlantic are skewing drier than average, while the Old Farmer’s Almanac is likewise forecasting a “milder and drier” season for the Atlantic Corridor, with below average snowfall and precipitation. Yet some of the coldest periods are expected in mid- to late December, so maybe there’s hope for the city to have its first white Christmas since 2002.

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