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With control of the U.S. House again expected to come down to a razor-thin margin next year, several congressional districts in Pennsylvania are emerging as some of the nation’s most competitive. As a result, control of the U.S. House may once again run through Pennsylvania.
Democrats have identified four districts they believe they can flip next year in Pennsylvania, more than any state: the 1st congressional district representing Bucks County; the 7th in the Lehigh Valley; the 8th in the Scranton area; and the 10th representing Harrisburg and York.
Three major, nonpartisan election forecasters — The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have placed PA-7 and PA-10 among the most competitive House seats nationwide. PA-8 is commonly rated as “lean” or “tilt” Republican across the three major forecasters. And PA-1 remains “likely” Republican, but analysts say the district could become vulnerable under the right conditions.
A western Pennsylvania seat, the 17th, representing Pittsburgh suburbs, appears on the outer edges of the competitive map, rated likely to remain in Democratic hands but giving Republicans the best shot at their own pickup in the state.
Brian Fitzpatrick: The ‘moderate’
In the northern Philadelphia suburbs, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is again preparing for a tough re-election fight in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, which includes all of Bucks County and part of Montgomery County. Fitzpatrick, a former special assistant U.S. attorney and FBI agent, first ran for Congress in 2016, replacing his brother Mike Fitzpatrick, who held the seat for four terms.
In 2018, the self-described moderate eked out a re-election victory despite being outraised and outspent 4 to 1. In 2020, he was one of only nine House Republicans to win a district carried by President Joe Biden. He went on to win by more than 10 points in 2024 in a district that Trump only narrowly won.
In the early years when Fitzpatrick represented the area, Democrats gained a majority advantage and a majority on the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, ending 40 years of Republican control. Republicans have since reclaimed a voter advantage, but in November, a high off-year election turnout led to a “blue wave” that saw Democrats win more local seats.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the seat “likely Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other prognosticators also see Fitzpatrick favored but not entirely safe.
Democrats appear to believe that the 2025 off-year elections show that dissatisfaction with Republican leadership in Washington is giving them a greater edge and that fights over the economy, abortion and “attacks on democracy” will help flip the seat. Several candidates have already stepped forward, including Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie, Delaware Valley University professor Tracy Hunt, eyewear company manager Robert Strickler and attorney Lucia Dora Simonelli.