Which breakout NHL teams are built on a sturdy, sustainable foundation that will clinch them a playoff spot in April? Which ones are masquerading and likely to flame out the longer the season drags on?

It’s an intriguing time in the league calendar to ask who’s for real or not. We’re more than 30 percent through the NHL season, but the standings, particularly in the Eastern Conference, are unusually packed. Only a handful of points separate 8th and 16th place in the East, meaning nobody is truly in or out of it yet.

There are eight NHL teams currently in playoff contention who missed the postseason in 2024-25. Let’s take a look under the hood at those eight teams to see who fits the profile of a realistic playoff contender. Note that we aren’t including the Bruins, despite them being in the wild-card race, because they’re 13th in the East by points percentage and are currently banged up.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 13-7-5

Why they’re excelling: The Penguins have looked like a completely different team under new head coach Dan Muse. Pittsburgh ranks top 10 in the NHL so far in creating high-danger chances per 60 at five-on-five, which matches the eye test of their dynamic, improved offense.

The old guard has been outstanding. Sidney Crosby is on a 59-goal pace, Evgeni Malkin is producing a point-per-game, and Erik Karlsson has rebounded to peak form. The Big Three’s supporting cast has exceeded expectations because of some surprise contributors. 18-year-old Ben Kindel has been a revelation, and GM Kyle Dubas also hit home runs on several bargain bin acquisitions: Parker Wotherspoon has been a shockingly effective top-four shutdown presence on Karlsson’s pair. Anthony Mantha (27-goal pace) and Justin Brazeau (six goals and 12 points in 12 games) were crushing it on Malkin’s wings until Brazeau’s injury.

Pittsburgh is the only team in the league to rank in the top five in both special teams categories, with a second-best power play and fifth-best penalty kill in the NHL. When you look under the hood, neither one of those successes screams “unsustainable.” The Penguins’ power play has displayed unbelievable puck movement, creating high-danger chances and expected goals at one of the highest marks in the league. Their penalty kill ranks second-best at limiting expected goals against, which points to sustainability, too.

The Pens’ five-on-five play is improving, too, as they controlled a positive share of shots, scoring chances, and expected goals in November.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: Pittsburgh’s NHL-leading 8-2-2 October record was driven in large part by elite goaltending. Artūrs Šilovs and Tristan Jarry combined for a dominant .921 save percentage in October, which was the best mark in the NHL by a country mile.

The big concern: Will Pittsburgh’s goaltending see a fall-off at some point? Šilovs, a notoriously streaky goaltender, has already come back down to Earth. He went 1-3-2 in November with an ugly .869 save percentage and has been pulled in back-to-back starts. Jarry has delivered above-average play since the tail end of last season, but his long-term track record as a starter has been spotty. Pittsburgh’s team defense is leaky (26th-ranked expected goals against rate at five-on-five), so it will be challenging for Pittsburgh to limit goals against if its goaltending hits a wall, which it could very well do given the inconsistent track record of its tandem.

The Penguins have also benefited from a soft early schedule; in October, only four of their 12 games were against playoff teams from last year. Pittsburgh has the toughest remaining schedule in the Eastern Conference in terms of opponent quality, according to Tankathon.

Pittsburgh should remain competitive so long as its red-hot special teams remain elite. However, I do wonder whether Jarry can sustain his strong start, and whether the old guys could slow down in the second half, especially with this condensed schedule.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 4.5/10

Anaheim Ducks

Record: 16-9-1

Why they’re excelling: The Ducks abandoned former head coach Greg Cronin’s ultra-conservative, offensively limited brand of hockey for a thrilling run-and-gun approach under Joel Quenneville. That change has paid tremendous dividends — several of Anaheim’s young players have broken out, and the Ducks have emerged as the second-highest scoring team in the NHL, behind only the Colorado Avalanche.

Leo Carlsson is playing at a 114-point pace, Cutter Gauthier is on pace for 47 goals and Beckett Sennecke, the No.3 pick in 2024, is playing like a Calder Trophy finalist. Chris Kreider has been a dream fit (13 goals in 22 games), and Troy Terry is producing at over a point-per-game clip as well. On the back end, Jacob Trouba is having a renaissance year.

Anaheim’s offensive explosion seems built on a pretty stable foundation, too. They aren’t riding an unsustainably hot shooting percentage (they’re shooting around 10 percent at five-on-five, which is barely above league average), they generate shots at a prolific clip, and the rate at which they’re creating expected goals offensively is top-10 in the NHL. If anything, the public analytics might be underselling how potent the Ducks are offensively because they manufacture so much rush offense, which public expected goal models can’t always accurately capture.

It also speaks volumes that the Ducks went 5-1-0 during a challenging early November stretch where they played heavy hitters like the Devils (before Jack Hughes’ injury), Avalanche, Stars, Golden Knights, Jets, and Panthers.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: For as electric as the Ducks are offensively, they’re equally as chaotic defensively. Nearly every Ducks game is a back-and-forth track meet. Anaheim is one of the most permissive defensive teams in the NHL, with its 2.99 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five ranking 31st in the league. The Ducks give up a lot of rush chances and can also make elementary mistakes with their net-front defensive coverage.

Overall, though, I’m bullish on the Ducks’ playoff chances. I believe they have enough high-end offensive skill and sturdy enough goaltending — Lukáš Dostál, who should return from injury in a couple of weeks, has been a consistently above-average starter — to outgun a lot of teams in these high-event games. Anaheim also has the third-easiest strength of schedule in the NHL for the remainder of the season.

Making it through the next couple of weeks without Dostál will be key, though — the Ducks have given up at least four goals against in four of five games since their star netminder’s injury.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 7/10

Macklin Celebrini has made the Sharks must-watch TV this season. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

San Jose Sharks

Record: 13-12-3

Why they’re excelling: Macklin Celebrini has made the Sharks must-watch TV. The 19-year-old phenom is scoring at a 121-point pace. His running mate, Will Smith, has also broken out as a point-per-game player. Add William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli to the mix, and you’ve got the foundation for a pretty lethal top-six attack.

Yaroslav Askarov has also performed at an elite level, except for a tough outing on Wednesday night against the Capitals. He and Celebrini have single-handedly won the Sharks games in which they’ve otherwise been outplayed.

NHL’s Top Goalies 2025-26

San Jose’s penalty kill has emerged as a strength; it ranks 11th in the NHL and recently went a perfect eight-for-eight in a win over the Canucks.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: The Sharks are a ton of fun to watch, but there are a lot of red flags regarding their playoff prospects.

Firstly, they get crushed defensively and have very little puck possession. San Jose’s five-on-five expected goal share of 42.3 percent is the worst in the NHL this season. Since the 2021-22 season, there have been 19 instances where a team had an expected goal share below 45 percent through the first two months of the season. Eighteen of those 19 teams (95 percent) missed the playoffs.

The Sharks’ blue line isn’t playoff-caliber, and the team’s goal differential is minus-13.

Celebrini and Askarov should keep singlehandedly winning games here and there, but there isn’t enough substance beyond that to believe they’ll win a playoff spot. Playoffs or not, though, San Jose’s growth should be celebrated as a massive success because nobody imagined they’d take such a big leap.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 2/10

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 14-11-2

Why they’re excelling: The Red Wings have four elite players who are each performing like one of the best skaters at their respective positions.

Dylan Larkin is scoring at a 42-goal, 91-point pace, and his linemate, Lucas Raymond, has the eighth-highest points-per-game clip of all wingers in the NHL. Moritz Seider is enjoying a monster breakout season. Seider is dominating his difficult two-way matchups, driving a 60 percent share of shots and 58 percent of goals at five-on-five. He’s also on pace for nearly 60 points. Alex DeBrincat is scoring over a point per game as well. There aren’t many other teams in the wild card mix that can boast such gaudy results from the top of their lineup.

Detroit’s power-play is clicking at an above-average clip, and the team’s five-on-five process has been encouraging, as they’ve controlled 51 percent of shot attempts and expected goals this season.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: Detroit’s been sunk by some of the worst goaltending in the NHL. John Gibson has been a bust acquisition, sporting an ugly .868 save percentage and ranking third-worst among all NHL goalies this season for goals saved above expected. Cam Talbot’s play has been mediocre, too, leaving the Red Wings with a team save percentage that ranks 28th in the NHL.

Detroit’s secondary scoring has been a massive issue. When the Larkin line isn’t on the ice, the Red Wings have mustered just 1.66 goals per 60 at five-on-five. They have a whopping minus-23 goal differential without the Larkin line on the ice at five-on-five.

I’m a big believer in the Red Wings’ star talent, but if they want to punch a ticket into the postseason, they’re going to need at least one of their goaltending or depth scoring to turn around. It’s plausible one of those weaknesses could bounce back, but I’m not super confident in the netminders or depth talent they have.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 4/10

Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 15-8-3

Why they’re excelling: Head coach Rick Tocchet proved in both Vancouver and Arizona that he can turn rosters lacking talent into plucky, competitive teams that stay alive in the playoff race thanks to his excellent defensive structure and low-event style. That’s happening once again in Philly.

Tocchet’s Flyers rank among the league’s top 10 in both limiting five-on-five shots and expected goals against per 60. Their neutral zone defensive structure does an effective job of limiting rush chances against, which was particularly evident in their recent win over the Devils.

Blue indicates areas where the team is surrendering fewer than league-average shots. Image courtesy HockeyViz

Dan Vladar’s breakout has also been key. The 28-year-old Czech netminder is rocking a .906 save percentage and has saved nearly 11 goals above expected, which ranks 12th best among NHL goalies.

Up front, Trevor Zegras has been a home run acquisition, leading the Flyers with 26 points in 26 games.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: Will the Flyers, who lack a true first-line center, a bona fide No.1 defenseman, and generally don’t have enough elite talent, manufacture enough offense? Philadelphia ranks bottom five in the league at both generating shots and expected goals offensively at five-on-five. Tyson Foerster’s two-to-three-month injury absence is a devastating blow, as he’d scored six goals in his last seven games on top of driving excellent defensive results.

It’s no guarantee that Vladar, a career backup who’s never played more than 30 games in a season, will keep performing as an above-average starter.

Philadelphia’s fourth line is also one of the worst in the league. Garnet Hathaway has scored zero points in 26 games, and the Flyers have been outscored 9-0 during his five-on-five shifts.

Matvei Michkov is a big X-factor to keep an eye on. The Flyers’ prized sophomore star has had a slow start offensively (14 points in 25 games) and averaged less than 15 minutes per game under Tocchet, amid questions about his conditioning. Unless Michkov bounces back as an elite game-breaker, I don’t think Philly has enough offensive punch to hold onto a playoff spot despite its defensive solidity, especially with Foerster’s long-term injury.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 4/10

Seattle Kraken

Record: 11-7-6

Why they’re excelling: The Kraken’s stingy defensive play and stellar goaltending have helped them grind out low-event wins. Lane Lambert’s coaching style sucks the oxygen out of games, as shots, scoring chances and goals are all hard to come by at both ends of the rink. Seattle scores the fewest goals per 60 offensively and concedes the third-fewest goals against per 60 at five-on-five.

Seattle does an excellent job of protecting the slot and limiting high-danger chances defensively. That’s created an insulated environment where their goaltenders are rocking a .934 save percentage at five-on-five.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: The Kraken remind me a bit of last year’s Calgary Flames. They struggle to score goals offensively and lack star talent, but they’re a scrappy, hard-working group that defends with pride and relies on strong goaltending.

Just like last year’s Flames, though, I ultimately expect them to fall short in the playoff race. There are just too many limitations with this Kraken team, especially offensively. Seattle is 31st in goals scored per game and doesn’t have a single player on pace to reach 55 points this season. Seattle’s controlled just 43.3 percent of expected goals at five-on-five, which ranks 31st in the NHL. As we noted in the San Jose section, there are 19 instances where a team had an expected goal share below 45 percent through the first two months of the season, and 18 of those 19 teams missed the playoffs.

The Kraken also have the worst penalty kill in the NHL. They have a minus-seven goal differential on the whole this season, and only the Nashville Predators have spent less time this season leading games.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 2/10

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 12-9-5

Why they’re excelling: Since last year, the Blue Jackets have quietly been one of the most dynamic, high-octane offensive teams in the Eastern Conference. Columbus has scored the most five-on-five goals of all NHL teams since 2024-25, on the back of a loaded offensive group led by Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko and Adam Fantilli. Columbus’ forward group is very deep, with the widely panned acquisitions of Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood looking like early home runs.

Coyle is driving excellent two-way results in a demanding shutdown role and is on pace for 57 points. Wood has chipped in with seven goals in 20 games.

21-year-old Denton Mateychuk is breaking out and elevating Columbus’ top-four defense. Most importantly, the Blue Jackets finally appear to have sturdy goaltending as Jet Greaves has 8.1 goals above expected.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: The Blue Jackets aren’t horrific defensively, but they still give up shots and chances at a concerning rate. That includes both even-strength and their penalty kill, which ranks 22nd in the league this season. That helps explain why Columbus has blown so many leads and suffered late-game collapses, essentially throwing points away.

Moving forward, though, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about Columbus’ playoff chances. A playoff berth is far from a slam dunk given how competitive the Metro is, but their foundation seems strong.

The Blue Jackets are the only team in the Metro division, besides Carolina and Washington, that controls a positive share of five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals. They’re oozing with speed and skill throughout the lineup. They have been unlucky finishing-wise this season (they’re generating high-danger chances at a prolific rate, but their actual scoring rate has lagged), which I’d expect to improve over the balance of the season. And the emergence of Greaves is massive because last year’s Blue Jackets team would have made the playoffs if not for subpar goaltending.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 6.5/10

New York Islanders

Record: 14-10-3

Why they’re excelling: The Islanders have morphed into a fast team with offensive pop that loves to trade chances at both ends.

Every time I watch the Isles play, I’m pleasantly surprised by how quick and dynamic they look. New York is the seventh-fastest team in the NHL this year, according to PuckAlytics — they’ve been one of my favorite teams to watch.

Matthew Schaefer’s arrival has fundamentally transformed the team. The 18-year-old has been a top-10 defenseman in the league this season, making a game-changing two-way impact on the team.

I think a lot of outsiders also overlooked how significant it’d be to get a healthy Mathew Barzal back (he played just 30 games last season). Barzal has been the engine for the Islanders’ second line, which has given New York a dangerous punch behind the Bo Horvat-led top line, which has been feasting (Horvat has 16 goals in 27 games).

Ilya Sorokin is also catching fire after a slow start, with the seventh-best goals saved above expected rating in the NHL.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: A consequence of the Isles’ fast, run-and-gun style is that they surrender a lot defensively. New York ranks 31st in the NHL at suppressing high-danger chances against at five-on-five.

The Islanders don’t have much high-end, game-breaking talent on the wing, a weakness that Kyle Palmieri’s ACL injury will further test. Their power play remains a significant weakness, ranking 31st this season. New York’s back end is also a little bit shaky beyond Schaefer and Adam Pelech.

New York’s playoff chances will be heavily influenced by whether Sorokin can keep delivering elite netminding. If he stays hot, that will paper over a lot of the Isles’ defensive concerns. And if that happens, I think this team has enough offensive juice with Schaefer, Horvat and Barzal leading the charge to grab a wild-card spot. But if Sorokin slips to even average form, I don’t see a path to the playoffs, especially given their injuries.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 4/10

Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 11-9-6

Why they’re excelling: Between Connor Bedard and Spencer Knight, the Blackhawks have been led by two of the best players in the league this season. Bedard is producing at a 120-point pace, and Knight is an early Vezina Trophy candidate.

The Blackhawks have also gotten solid top-six contributions from Tyler Bertuzzi (14 goals in 23 games), Andre Burakovsky (18 points in 21 games), and Frank Nazar (though he’s struggled since returning from injury). Combined, that’s helped Chicago rank ninth in the NHL in goals per game so far.

Chicago’s special teams have also put up gaudy results, with its power play and penalty kill both ranking in the league’s top 10.

Biggest question mark(s) and outlook: The Blackhawks don’t dictate five-on-five play like most playoff-caliber teams. They’ve controlled less than 46 percent of scoring chances this season, which ranks 28th in the NHL. They’re at a notably better baseline than the Sharks in this regard, but it still isn’t the most sustainable recipe for success. We’re already seeing potential evidence of that, as the Blackhawks have lost six of their last seven games.

Chicago’s power play could also be in danger of regressing in the second half. Despite their gaudy results on the man advantage, the Blackhawks rank 30th at creating shots per 60 and 28th at creating high danger chances per 60 on the power play.

The Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are very likely to claim the three divisional playoff spots in the Central. That would mean the Blackhawks need to beat out more established/talented teams such as the Oilers, Jets, and Mammoth for a wild-card spot, which seems unlikely.

Making the playoffs confidence meter: 3/10