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To boost graduation rates, Philadelphia school leaders say they are looking to expand a key early high school support program to include 10th graders.

This comes after a district analysis released last month found that 97% of students considered “firmly on track” at the end of 10th grade graduated within four years. Students are considered on track based on the number of credits they earn.

The district first began monitoring whether ninth graders were on track to graduation in 2017. It partnered with longtime dropout prevention group Philadelphia Academies Inc. to launch initiatives meant to reduce ninth grade dropout rates and support freshmen in more than two dozen district high schools. The moves are backed by research that shows a strong relationship between the number of credits students have by the end of ninth grade and whether they’ll graduate within four years.

But the intense level of support, attention, and resources that comes with the ninth grade on track program doesn’t follow students to their sophomore year, said Aja Holden, the district’s executive director of the Office of Postsecondary Readiness. Holden said her team was hearing from young people that when they left ninth grade, they were asking “what about us?’”

The work to help more students stay on track to graduate dovetails with the Philadelphia district’s aim to improve the district’s four-year graduation rate and reduce the number of students dropping out. During the 2023-24 school year, the most recent year of available data, nearly 16% of students did not graduate within four years — an improvement from previous years, but still higher than the statewide rate. The number of students in grades 7-12 who dropped out of the district was nearing 4,000 in 2021-22 but has since fallen to 1,680 in 2024-25, according to district data.

Holden said the district is still exploring the possibility of an expansion to 10th grade, including what it would require in terms of resources and staff. The ninth grade on track program is funded through 2027 with $2.6 million of district money and $8 million from the Neubauer Family Foundation. (Chalkbeat receives funding from the Neubauer Family Foundation.)

“Do I believe it will happen? Yes.” Holden said. “Do I have an answer about quite when? No, not yet.”

The new analysis indicates some young people were falling back off track after ninth grade, and that recovery was rare for those who were behind when they started 10th grade. Around 91% of students who were off track at the end of 9th grade remained off track at the end of 10th grade.

Even among 10th graders with excellent attendance, only 14% who were off track regained on-track status, showing how difficult it is for students to recover from being behind.

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Students considered off track include those who may be missing a single requirement or several requirements. The more credits a student has missed by the end of 10th grade, the less likely they were to graduate within four years, the district’s analysis found.

The new analysis also underscores how influential ninth grade is for students. Around 80% of students who completed enough credits by the end of ninth grade to be considered on track to graduate stayed on track at the end of 10th grade.

But Holden said it also created a sense of urgency for her and her team to think about how to better support 10th graders too.

For Holden, high school success is more than just credits and grades. She said having a meaningful high school experience, full of good memories, strong relationships, and connections that can help students succeed after they leave the district is paramount.

“I need all of the students of Philadelphia, all the students in the district, all of our tens of thousands of high schoolers, to make it from start to finish,” she said. “I don’t want anyone to be left behind.”

Rebecca Redelmeier is a reporter at Chalkbeat Philadelphia. She writes about public schools, early childhood education, and issues that affect students, families, and educators across Philadelphia. Contact Rebecca at rredelmeier@chalkbeat.org.

Carly Sitrin is the bureau chief for Chalkbeat Philadelphia. Contact Carly at csitrin@chalkbeat.org.