Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
Monday night in Pittsburgh should feel like steel on your teeth, with breath hanging in the lights. Miami shows up playing loose after a season that got reset in public. Pittsburgh shows up tense, because the home crowd has been sharp lately. This game also lives under one brutal reality: T.J. Watt is not walking through that tunnel. The spotlight will reward the team that stays patient when the first punch misses. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Miami’s recent profile is the cleanest identity on the board, and it’s built to travel. Over the last five weeks, Miami is at +0.088 EPA/play, with +0.115 rush EPA/play and only a 40.6% pass rate. That is deliberate, protective football, and it’s fueled by De’Von Achane’s heater. He’s at 520 yards on 72 carries for 7.2 per carry, plus 12 catches on 12 targets for 109 yards. He’s punched in four rushing touchdowns in that window, and the workload never blinks. The efficiency is violent, too, at +0.257 rushing EPA per attempt and 385 yards after contact at 5.35 per attempt. Jaylen Wright has added 144 yards on 33 carries with a touchdown as the steady complement. Tua Tagovailoa is 54-of-85 for 628 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions, absorbing eight sacks, so the run game is still the safest steering wheel. Jaylen Waddle has 16 catches for 226 yards and two scores on 27 targets, with a 15.4 aDOT and 2.63 yards per route.
Miami’s defense has matched the surge, sitting at -0.137 defensive EPA allowed with a 40.5% pressure rate and an 8.6% sack rate. It has 13 sacks in four games, plus six interceptions in that same stretch, and Bradley Chubb’s 22 pressures and 2.5 sacks are the teeth.
Pittsburgh’s recent profile is the opposite. Over the last five weeks, it’s -0.043 EPA/play, with -0.084 pass EPA/play, and the offense is living on thin margins. Aaron Rodgers has completed 57.4% over that span with -0.153 EPA/play and a 41.0% success rate, totaling 678 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on 101 attempts.
The backs are where Pittsburgh can buy cleaner answers. Jaylen Warren has 248 rushing yards on 60 carries at 4.1 per carry with two scores, but the real value is in the routes, with nine catches on nine targets for 84 yards and a receiving touchdown. His rushing efficiency has been thin at -0.013 EPA per rush, while his receiving efficiency has popped at +0.625 EPA per catch, which tells you exactly how Pittsburgh should use him. Kenneth Gainwell has been even more quietly productive as a pass-game piece, with 151 rushing yards on 28 carries at 5.4 per carry, plus 23 catches on 23 targets for 167 yards and two receiving touchdowns. His efficiency reads like a cheat code in this window, at +0.093 EPA per rush and +0.502 EPA per catch, and that’s a huge deal in a cold game where easy completions are oxygen.
DK Metcalf has 23 catches for 286 yards on 40 targets, sitting at 2.42 yards per route with an 11.1 aDOT, and Darnell Washington has been a sneaky chunk lever at 10-for-13 for 161 yards with 107 yards after catch. The defense hasn’t created enough chaos lately, with only six sacks and two interceptions across the last five games, and that’s why the Pittsburgh side keeps coming back to drive extension and third-down execution rather than splash plays.
Dolphins vs. Steelers pick, best bet
The Pittsburgh case starts with exactly two things: cleaner quarterback stewardship over the full season and better third-down work lately. Pittsburgh has thrown only nine interceptions across the season, while Miami has thrown 14, and that gap matters in a cold game. Pittsburgh’s offense has also converted 42.6% on third downs recently, while Miami sits at 30.0% with a negative third-down EPA. That is the “extend drives, tilt field position, win late” blueprint. The problem is that our Week 15 betting scars (Patriots/Bengals/Panthers) remind me to handicap the failure modes, not the best-case version. We just watched an underdog bet die on quarterback chaos and drive-killing mistakes. We just watched a home dog bet die when the second half changed. Miami’s current plan reduces those swings, because it can win without living in dropback variance. Pittsburgh’s current plan asks Rodgers to be sharper than he has been recently, and it asks a defense without Watt to win third downs the hard way.
The Miami risk is real, and it’s the kind that can fake you out. Their defense is producing takeaways at an inflated recent rate, with six interceptions in four games after only seven in 13 games on the season. That spike can cool off fast, and I respect that regression. Achane’s 7.2 per carry can cool off, too, because gravity always shows up. But Miami doesn’t need perfection to cover a field goal here. It needs early-down competence, clean tackling, and a game plan that keeps Tua from wearing the whole outcome. Tua’s last five weeks show three touchdowns with three interceptions, plus eight sacks on 85 attempts. That is not pristine, but it’s manageable if Miami can keep the run game humming. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 138.0 rushing yards per game in this recent window, with +0.089 EPA allowed per rush attempt and a 47.8% success rate allowed. That is the runway Miami wants.
I expect Miami to lean into wide-zone and motion, then marry it with quick throws off run looks. It should live in early-down rushing volume and force linebackers to fit repeatedly. I expect Pittsburgh to answer with heavier boxes and more simulated pressures, trying to steal throws. Without Watt, Pittsburgh should still hunt disruption with disguise, not pure rush wins. On offense, Pittsburgh should treat the backs as extensions of the run game, because the passing EPA has been thin. Jaylen Warren has been far more efficient as a receiver than a runner lately, and Kenneth Gainwell has been a real value touch player. Miami should counter with tight coverage leverage and a pass rush that has been finishing, because its sack rate has spiked. If this game becomes a fourth-quarter patience test, I’d rather hold the field goal with the team that can keep its own offense on schedule.
The board is giving me Dolphins +3 (-110), with the total at 42.5 and the moneyline at +140. I’m staying disciplined and taking the points. This is not me fading home field, or chasing a streak. This is me betting the team whose recent efficiency is real, whose run game is driving the engine, and whose defense is creating more negative plays. Pittsburgh has scored seven points in a recent game, and that volatility is the tax. Miami has won four straight while allowing only 13.3 points per game in that stretch, and it’s doing it without needing a pass-fest.
I’m taking Dolphins +3, and I see a grinder that ends 23-20 Miami.
Best bet: Dolphins +3 (-110) at Steelers
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For a prop lean, I’m taking Kenneth Gainwell 25+ receiving yards at +100. His recent usage is exactly what I want in a cold, pressure-heavy primetime game. He has 23 catches on 23 targets for 167 yards over the last five weeks, plus two receiving touchdowns, and that’s not fluky efficiency. He’s producing +0.502 EPA per catch, which tells you these aren’t empty dump-offs. Miami’s defense is hunting quarterbacks right now, with a 40.5% pressure rate and an 8.6% sack rate, and that kind of heat usually turns reads into quick outlets. Rodgers has been stuck in mud recently, sitting at -0.153 EPA/play with a 41.0% success rate, so Pittsburgh’s cleanest answers should be rhythm throws and back releases. Miami’s run game also pushes a more compressed script, which keeps Pittsburgh in “chain-moving” mode instead of hero-ball. If this turns into a field-position grinder, I want the back who’s been the most reliable underneath valve, and I’ll take plus money for a line he can clear with four or five catches.
Best prop lean: Kenneth Gainwell 25+ receiving yards (+100)
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