Second-guess the last play all you want. Things didn’t go how anyone in Western New York drew it up. For much of the afternoon, it felt like the Buffalo Bills’ offense had no business playing for a win late in the fourth quarter against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that came in prepared to shut them down. But Bills Mafia has been down this road with their favorite football team.

It’s been a difficult season to enjoy in Bills Country, where despite a lot of wins and some surprisingly flashy stats, well… the team just doesn’t look like it has the right stuff to go all the way. Yet here they were, one play away from taking down the defending Super Bowl Champions just two games before the postseason.

The decision to go for two? It was the right choice. It was in that moment that Josh Allen was finally in the zone, playing his best football of the day. Kicking for a tie to force overtime first of all guarantees nothing (even if the defense had completely shut down Philly’s offense in the second half), and Allen was likely on borrowed snaps given his injury status.

One hundred times out of 100, a team with Josh Allen at quarterback is going to put the ball in his hands to go for the win. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady even had a good two-point play at the goal line drawn up. Even wide receiver Khalil Shakir found separation and opportunity. Allen just missed the throw, and badly.

In reality, it’s probably best the Bills lost in Week 17. They no longer have the AFC East to play for. That’s going back to Foxborough, MA and the New England Patriots. With it comes a first-place schedule in 2026.

As for Buffalo, they have quite a few things to work through in the coming days. If head coach Sean McDermott and company could play early with the same brand of urgency they show late in games, they might be able to do some heavy lifting as a road dog in the playoffs.

There wasn’t a lot that stood out in this loss, but a few of my thoughts are below.

The Bills go as Josh Allen, James Cook III go

For much of the afternoon, yards were tough to come by for Buffalo’s two best players. It’s been a career season for running back James Cook III, and another stand-out campaign for Josh Allen — even if it hasn’t always looked like an MVP journey.

The Eagles have had their own share of challenges in 2025 but, like the Bills, continue to stack wins while positioning themselves well for the playoffs. Recently, the Chicago Bears seemed to expose a fatal flaw in Philly’s run defense, but that appeared to wake them up as evidenced by much of the work they did defending the run against the likes of Cook and Allen.

In fairness, Allen is injured (whether he’ll admit it directly or not) and he did still make some incredible plays with his arm and legs in “gotta have it” moments. But there’s potential trouble brewing in Allentown right now. He’s hobbled, though postgame x-rays were negative. That’s welcome news to One Bills Drive and Bills Mafia alike. Still, we don’t know enough about what’s going on with Allen’s right foot to clearly understand if it’s short term or something that could linger into the postseason.

What’s clear is that Buffalo relies too much on Allen’s ability to sprinkle magic all over a group of players often in over their heads, talent wise. It works a lot of the time because Cook has now matched Allen’s intensity and ability — of course both have their offensive teammates who block to thank for a lot of their success. But the point stands: Cook’s emergence as a bona fide elite featured running back has carried the Bills through much of the 2025 season.

Things become infinitely tougher after next Sunday. Anyone on the roster from 2024 understands that point. The team needs more players to step up on offense, and to be honest things looked a bit improved on that front against the Eagles. Yes, even if it was still sloppy, still a fairly low overall output on offense. But there’s zero consistency, unless you count mailing it in until the third quarter of almost every game.

For all the narratives one can pin on a board toward building out the story of the Bills’ 2025 season, everything comes back to Josh Allen and James Cook. When their opponent reigns them in, Buffalo will struggle to make enough plays elsewhere to steal a win. By and large, Cook and Allen both finished with decent enough stat lines. Still, the plays they couldn’t are what stand out most.

Get healthy soon, Matt Prater

This one might get a lot of pushback, but I place a lot of blame for the Bills’ loss to the Eagles on one play: Michael Badgley’s missed extra point. First of all, if you’ve never kicked a football in meaningful situations while battling adverse weather, it’s not anywhere near as simple as analysis will lead you to believe. It’s pretty clear to me that Badgley angled his boot lower to account for the weather and to get more velocity on it where he connected.

That slight change proved to be a fatal flaw, and the Bills had to chase that missed point at the end of regulation. If Badgley simply made that first XP, then they’re not chasing points — the final play instead rather likely an XP to go one point up at 14-13 with mere seconds to play.

But because of Badgley’s missed XP — his second in as many games with the club — I believe head coach Sean McDermott lost complete confidence in the kicking unit to convert in the crunch. Maybe the Eagles’ special teams block unit is just that good?

There are plenty of folks arguing that Buffalo should have kicked for one. But there was no guarantee Badgley makes that kick, especially if he’s in the wrong headspace. Furthermore, playing for overtime lengthens the game and the Bills’ opportunity to win, but how much more was Allen going to be able to do if the tape shows that he was struggling and injured on the two-point try?

It’s a lot of weight to place on a missed point, but when the team loses 13-12, every point stands out.

Bills’ defense continues trending up

The 1985 Chicago Bears and 2000 Baltimore Ravens they are not, but this Bills defense could still surprise some teams down the road. Before you get too worked up, it’s well understood that the Eagles haven’t fielded a record-setting offense in 2025. Yet there have been plenty of games this season where Buffalo’s defense allowed inferior teams to look like record-setting clubs against them.

Not so in Week 17. Quarterback Jalen Hurts went 0-for-7 in the second half, and many of those incompletions could have been caught if not for the Bills’ savvy defensive backfield. Flashy stats? You’re not going to find those in most games with this defense. They work best as a unit, and rise to the challenge at the best time.

That was true Sunday against Philadelphia, and without the defense’s second-half effort, Buffalo never has a chance to win the game at the end. If the Bills can get healthy enough on defense, we could see a unit that fares much better in the postseason.

For all the criticism levied his way in recent seasons, linebacker Matt Milano is playing fantastic football in 2025. He was all over the field again in Week 17, and he seems to be playing like the Milano of old — without reservation. Can he keep it up in January?

Joe Brady needs to wake up sooner

The Bills looked like a completely different offense after halftime, even if yards were tough to come by. Much of that change was due to the play calling, which once again saw offensive coordinator Joe Brady reach into his bag of tricks for the hook & ladder on fourth down late in the game.

Why does he wait so long to do such things? Is it simply that the plays he goes to late work because of the defense, or is it actually that mundane play calling early holds the offense back? We can’t know for certain whether Brady refuses to call certain things early instead of late, or if Allen changes out of such ideas.

We only understand that, like clockwork, once the chips are down these Bills begin to move the ball through the air. To his credit, Brady did call a game that worked in more downfield passing on Sunday — which was strange given the weather. It worked early, and wide receiver Brandin Cooks finished with 101 yards on four catches. There should be more of that, even when tight end Dalton Kincaid is healthy.

I’d mentioned elsewhere that perhaps Brady was unwilling to show Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio too many wrinkles. It remains a possibility that these teams meet again, in a little game named Super Bowl LX. However, if it’s true that Brady won’t stray from his script before halftime, then the Bills may need to get used to chasing points late in the playoffs.

About that penalty on Sam Franklin Jr.

Early in the game, special teams gunner Sam Franklin Jr. made a heck of a play to dispose of the blocker in front of him. In doing so, his opponent fell down and proceeded to pretty clearly trip Franklin who then careened into Philly’s return man. The net result of that play was an injury for the returner, a personal foul penalty on Franklin, and turnover caused by fumble that wound up erased by penalty.

That play was a massive 14-point swing if you think about it. Instead of the Bills getting 1st & Goal off a rightful turnover, the Eagles retained possession and were gifted bogus penalty yards due to their own player tripping Franklin into the return man. From there they went down the field for a touchdown.

It’s unfortunate that an injury occurred, but the correct call should have been tripping by the receiving team, with the Bills declining it as a result of the play.

Bills march quietly toward the postseason

If it appears as though the Bills aren’t one of the more-talked-about playoff teams, that’s because most people are focused on the huge turnover in AFC teams. Buffalo entered Sunday as the five seed, but now falls back to seven as the last-place team in the AFC. They can jump back to the six seed if the Houston Texans lose in Week 18 while Buffalo wins it’s home finale against the New York Jets.

If that’s not all to be, that’s a heck of a seven seed in the Bills — when you consider the playoff experience at head coach and quarterback, never mind the roster elsewhere. Disappointment would set in with fans if The Ralph didn’t get one more home playoff game before being torn down, but perhaps almost anywhere other than rainy windy, cold, and sometimes snowy Orchard Park, NY in January will benefit Josh Allen and the offense.

Well, maybe not Houston, TX.

Interestingly, Allen and McDermott are still winless against the Eagles. Philadelphia is the last of 31 opponents the pair needs to check all the boxes on their victory tour around the NFL with Buffalo. If they want another shot in the near future, it’ll have to come in Santa Clara, CA.

Bills vs. Eagles Week 18 game stats (courtesy NFLGSIS)