If one thing is for sure, it’s that this season has reminded us that the NFL is as unpredictable as it is entertaining. The Pittsburgh Steelers were playing some of their best ball of the season, riding high off a three-game win streak capped off with a climactic upset over the Detroit Lions, before falling on their faces a week later, losing to the 3-12 Cleveland Browns. While Mike Tomlin’s club does still control their own destiny as they enter the regular season finale, this recent chain of events has put their playoff aspirations on life support.
ESPN analytics gives the Steelers a 42.5% chance to win on Sunday night in their win-or-go-home clash with their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. That part of the equation is relatively straightforward, but the biggest question at play here is who their first-round opponent will be. The rest of the AFC playoff picture has been decided already, but the next two weeks will help determine seeding for those vying for Wild Card berths. Today, we’re going to look ahead at those potential matchups by examining the pros and cons of each hypothetical outcome, ranking them in order of most-to-least favorable matchups.Â
1) Los Angeles Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cam Heyward sacks Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert on Sept. 24, 2024. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has built a tough defense without a ton of star power by deploying mass amounts of zone-match coverages and light boxes to keep a lid on explosive plays. Derwin James is one of the most versatile defenders in the league with his ability to play the run like a linebacker, cover different body types in the slot, and be an asset in their sim pressures. When these two teams met back in Week 10, this unit was responsible for one of Aaron Rodgers’ worst games as a pro, amassing -0.5 EPA/play on 35 dropbacks in the loss. Justin Herbert’s known for the cannon on his right shoulder, but he’s been more willing to scramble of late, leading to a career high in rushing yards. The Chargers are a pass-first offense with a trio of talented, albeit somewhat inconsistent, pass catchers that make for difficult 1v1 covers.Â
None of Los Angeles’ offensive metrics are overly impressive, mostly because of the health and performance of their offensive line, causing them to allow pressure on 45.3% of their passing plays this season, tied for worst in the NFL. Despite offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s reputation as a run-game aficionado, their early rushing success rate of 35.8% tells the story of how often they find themselves behind the sticks on offense. Defensively, they will allow you to dink and dunk by design, and it’s also pertinent to have some designed split-coverage beaters in the game plan to take shots downfield. Opposing teams have profited some with perimeter runs away from edge defender Khalil Mack’s direction, some of which have popped for explosive plays.Â
2) Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 29, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now
Speaking of teams peaking at the right time, Liam Coen’s Jaguars have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season and have climbed back into the driver’s seat of the AFC South. The acquisition of the sure-handed Jakobi Meyers has unlocked their passing game, with Trevor Lawrence showing never-before-seen confidence throwing on time to the middle of the field. Jacksonville’s run game is well put together behind two legit home run threats in Travis Etienne and Bayshul Tuten, who have combined for 41 carries in which they amassed 15+ MPH thus far. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has fresh ideas borrowed from the game’s top defensive minds, leading to an opportunistic defense that has intercepted 19 passes on the season. Off-ball backer Devin Lloyd has transformed into a true three-down weapon worthy of All-Pro consideration.Â
Talent has never been a question with Trevor Lawrence, but the highs and lows are still so incredibly vast that it’s difficult to peg which version of the former number one overall selection will show up on Sundays. It’s a good thing that he’s been firing on all cylinders lately and the receivers are catching the ball more consistently because they’ve been one of the least efficient run games over the past month. The secondary, one of the more shocking positive developments of the season, has been snakebitten by injuries, losing Travis Hunter and Jordan Lewis for the season. The front office tried to shore up their depth by adding Greg Newsome at the trade deadline, but the change of scenery hasn’t been what the doctor ordered. He’s allowed five touchdowns and missed six tackles since October.Â
3) Houston Texans
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud in a preseason game against the Houston Texans on Aug. 9, 2024. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now
Winners of seven straight, DeMeco Ryans’ club has been scorching hot behind the league’s best defense that’s holding opponents to a staggering 1.47 points per drive and a +15 turnover differential. The edge rush tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have dominant complimentary skill sets and have combined for 162 pressures and 26 sacks per PFF. With sticky cover corners, a free safety with unlimited range, and a slot defender that causes nonstop havoc, the Texans make things very difficult on quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud is a tough customer and smooth operator in the pocket that thrives on hitting his #1 target, Nico Collins, on in-breakers with ball placement that allows for yards after the catch. Their offensive line, while still average at best, is noticeably better at picking up twists/stunts and preventing fewer quick pressures as opposed to 2024.
The recent tweaks to their plan of attack offensively have been beneficial, but it’s impossible to study Houston’s offense without coming away with this conclusion: there’s far too much responsibility on the quarterback’s shoulders. Even during their hot streak, they’re still 27th in rushing success rate despite noble efforts for their rookie tailback Woody Marks. There’s very little to nitpick about their defense, seeing as they’ve only allowed more than 21 points twice this year. Because of the aggressive nature of their defense, they’re an average tackling team that will allow some explosive plays via the run and pass. In their two worst outings this season, Houston allowed a whopping 19 explosive plays on defense.
4) Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday evening. Ed Thompson/Steelers Now
Josh Allen might be the closest thing to Superman that we have in the league today now that he’s able to oscillate between facilitator and playmaker. However, the Bills’ run game has been dominant and extremely difficult to slow down, as the Steelers found out the hard way about a month ago. They’ll vary personnel depending on the opponent, but mid-zone weak and duo are the foundational concepts behind James Cook’s breakout as the NFL’s leading rusher to date. Buffalo ranks third in EPA/dropback in defending short throws under ten air yards, and Christian Benford has been tailing the opposing team’s best player each week over the second half of the season. Sean McDermott always seems to be in the crosshairs for the franchise’s shortcomings in the postseason, but he’s rattled off a couple of impressive individualized game plans in 2025.
The receiving corps lacks a true alpha on the boundary, and most of their threats are heavily dependent on the scheme to get them loose, meaning the Steelers would likely feel confident playing more man coverage in a rematch. It’s also worth noting that their right guard, O’Cyrus Torrence, is someone you can pick on in pass protection. The safety play has improved since a truly disastrous start, but this is a defense that really lacks speed at the second and third levels, which has led to an alarming amount of explosive runs allowed. To compensate for this, McDermott has been calling some more corner blitzes, among other wrinkles, to create negative plays for loss that get the opposition behind the sticks.
Mentioned In This Article: Buffalo Bills Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars Los Angeles Chargers Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers top