It’s 2026. America’s 250th birthday celebration is coming to Philly. The wheels have been hot-glued back onto the Eagles wagon. And our state’s senior U.S. Senator John Fetterman is more popular with Republicans than Democrats. 

There have been innumerable strange occurrences in the last decade in politics, but almost none more so than Fetterman’s transition from 2022 progressive darling to bane of America’s left wing. Whether in his obstinate refusal to appease Hamas and their growing number of supporters in the U.S., insistence that borders should exist and be enforced, or calling out Democratic intransigence on the government shutdown, Senator Fetterman has emerged as a voice of reason to many in Pennsylvania — and an apostate to the Democratic base.

Polling shows that Fetterman enjoys solid approval ratings overall, most significantly with Republicans (62-21 approve to disapprove), and floundering marks with Democrats. And he shows no signs of relenting; In an era where aesthetics and statements matter more than actual votes (Fetterman sides with his Democratic colleagues much more often than not), there is no room for him to reassume the progressive posture demanded by activist Democrats.

If a primary were held today, he’d lose — which is why state Democrats from Pittsburgh’s Rep. Chris Deluzio and Conor Lamb (who lost to Fetterman in the 2022 Senate primary) to Philly’s Rep. Brendan Boyle are becoming more vocal in criticizing him. As veteran Pennsylvania reporter Holly Otterbein shares in Axios: “Potential Democratic challengers are already bashing Fetterman — and each other — years ahead of schedule. Some Democratic officials are openly contemplating running against Fetterman.”

Fetterman has no path forward as a Democrat after his first term in the Senate. 

There is a way forward — but not inside his current party. It can start this year: he leaves the Democrats.

This need not involve joining the Republicans, which he has repeatedly insisted he will not do; instead, Senator Fetterman could mimic Maine’s Angus King and declare as an Independent — and then caucus with Republicans.

Fetterman could continue to vote his conscience on abortion, healthcare, and whatever other issues he cares about, while carrying his effective voice into the Senate majority on immigration, foreign policy and reindustrialization. He will find on the Republican side a caucus that is actually interested in listening to him.

Because Senator Fetterman is living through a social phenomenon that so many of us know too well: that Democrats demand ideological conformity, and exile dissenters. It is their modus operandi for holding and maintaining power. Republicans, with all of our flaws, are just not like this. The Senator could make himself a happy home as a maverick Independent, and work his leverage within a grateful majority caucus — while giving himself an actual shot at winning reelection if he wants to run again in 2028.

The sticking point would be on the Republican side. State and national leaders would need to agree to clear the field from the right, allowing Fetterman to run as an Independent without an endorsed Republican opponent. This would require institutional acknowledgement that even at the highest water mark, Pennsylvania is still a blue state that sometimes flips red. Our junior U.S. Senator Dave McCormick squeaked past Democrat Bob Casey by around 15,000 votes in 2024; contrast this with Casey’s own thirteen-point trouncing of his Republican opponent in 2018, as well as Democrats’ double-digit wins in the 2025 off-year judicial elections.

That is to say, even in very good years for Republicans, winning a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania is a very hard thing to do.

The most current likely outcome in our next Senate election is this: Senator Fetterman loses a Democratic primary in 2028 (I’d bet my house on it), and then either runs as an Independent or drops out. If the field includes Fetterman and a strong, endorsed Republican opponent, Fetterman will siphon more votes from the right than the left, based on his approval ratings and the Democrats’ unmatched ability to get a message out and whip their base into action. 

Such a matchup would nearly guarantee a further-left Democratic Senator replacing him next term. Acknowledging this reality, Pennsylvania Republicans would notch a win by welcoming Fetterman mostly into the fold — even if informally.

For Fetterman, this means planning now so that he does not become next season’s Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin, both hounded out of office by left-wing activists and the media for their apostasy (moderation) on key fiscal and social issues. The playbook is to cut the Senator off from the left, ensure he loses a primary, and replace him with somebody more dogmatic. The only alternative is to clear a lane on the right.

Of course, the open question is around Fetterman’s health, following a stroke during the 2022 campaign — something that legacy media and progressives stoutly refused to talk about at the time. Now, as he has pivoted to the center, they suddenly talk, and leak, about it. Fetterman suffered a series of strokes in the fall that landed him in the hospital.

With his party base and legacy media moving against him, now is the best opportunity for Fetterman — and those who yearn for normalcy and moderation in politics — to make a change. Our Senator needs to decide for himself whether he wants to seek reelection in 2028. If he does, he has no path as a Democrat. But he could forge one as a maverick Independent, a partial if incomplete win for Republicans and a huge one for Pennsylvanians who want sanity in our politics.

Albert Eisenberg runs the political messaging agency Red Bridge. A Philadelphia native, he is an original co-founder of Broad + Liberty, and has been featured in Politico Magazine, RealClearPolitics, the Philadelphia Inquirer and elsewhere. @‌Albydelphia.