Eagles (11-6) vs 49ers (12-5), Sunday 4:30
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Point spread/ML – Eagles -4.5/-225 49ers +4.5/+188
Total points (O/U) – 44.5 points
Analysis: Sunday will not be a typical winter afternoon in South Philadelphia. Forecasters predict temps in the upper 40s, which could mean a fast track and less limits on the passing game.
The biggest boost for the Eagles is the return of future Hall of Fame tackle Lane Johnson. In his career, the Birds have a .656 win % when he plays, compared to an 18-28 record in the game he’s missed. This line opened at -3.5 for the Eagles, which means a lot of folks are backing the Birds.
Picks: OVER 44.5 points, Eagles ML
Passing Props (O/U)
Jalen Hurts – 208.5 yards, 19.5 completions, 29.5 attempts
Brock Purdy – 228.5 yards, 20.5 completions, 32.5 yards
Analysis: Purdy has a 4-2 career postseason record, and in the games he’s started AND finished, he’s averaged 264 yards/game. Like Hurts, Purdy doesn’t hurt his team with turnovers: he’s thrown just one pick in 171 career playoff attempts.
Hurts isn’t usually asked to do a lot of heavy lifting, but as the 49ers pass defense has struggled all season (25th in yards allowed, last in sacks), this could lead to him putting up numbers.
Picks: Purdy OVER yards; Hurts OVER yards
Rushing Props (O/U)
Saquon Barkley – 79.5 yards, 18.5 attempts
Christian McCaffrey – 58.5 yards, 17.5 attempts
Hurts – 31.5 yards, 6.5 attempts
Purdy – 16.5 yards, 4.5 attempts
Brian Robinson – 13.5 yards
Analysis: This feels like a game where the Niners could struggle to establish a run game, although Johnson’s return could open up some things for Barkley and Co. Another big factor is the lack of health among the Niners’ linebackers. Seattle ran for 180 yards last week, and SF has allowed 124 yds/game over their L5.
Hurts vs SF presents an interesting matchup. He adds a big-time weapon to the offense when he does cut and run, but the Niners have only allowed 224 rushing yds to QBs this season, about 13 a game.
Picks: Barkley OVER yards, Hurts OVER yards, OVER attempts; McCaffrey UNDER yards
Receiving Props (O/U)
AJ Brown – 66.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
George Kittle – 59.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
DeVonta Smith – 55.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
McCaffrey – 45.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
Dallas Goedert – 39.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
Jauan Jennings – 45.5 yards, 3.5 receptions
Barkley – 15.5 yards, 2.5 receptions
Jahan Dotson – 7.5 yards, 0.5 receptions
Kyle Juszczyk – 6.5 yards, 1.5 receptions
Analysis: Hurts really leaned on Brown down the stretch, the Eagles WR1 has averaged 6.7/91 over the last 6 games. Look for Goedert to continue his big red zone production; SF has allowed 10 TDs to TEs this season.
McCaffrey may not see a lot of daylight in the run game, but Purdy will look for him as a checkdown option. He had 102 catches this season. Kittle also sees a lot of targets, averaging 7.7 targets/game over his L7.
Picks: Brown OVER yards, Goedert OVER yards, OVER receptions; McCaffrey OVER yards, OVER receptions, Kittle OVER yards, OVER receptions
Anytime Touchdowns
McCaffrey -140
Barkley -125
Hurts +115
Brown +150
Kittle +185
Smith/Goedert +190
Jennings +250
DeMarcus Robinson/Ricky Pearsall +380
Purdy +550
Eagles D +800
49ers D +1100
Analysis: Hurts has 10 TD in nine career playoff games, easy call. McCaffrey and Kittle will get a large majority of the touches on offense, especially in the red zone.
Picks: Hurts, Brown, Goedert; McCaffrey, Kittle