3) Defensive battle could come down to kickers
On paper, Houston owns a slight offensive advantage but observers of both teams will admit neither boasts an explosive attack. Houston has the edge defensively, meaning we could be in for a low-scoring affair in Pittsburgh — which also means the outcome may rely heavily on the right feet of Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell and Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn. In a typical year, that wouldn’t be an issue for Steelers fans; Boswell has been ultra reliable over the course of his 11 years in Pittsburgh. But Boswell posted his lowest field goal conversion percentage (84.4) since 2022 this season, and although it didn’t end up hurting them, Steelers fans might still have visions of Boswell’s missed extra point that opened the door for the Ravens to nearly win in Week 18’s de facto AFC North title game. Fairbairn, meanwhile, has been absolute nails in 2025, proving to be one of the most reliable point producers on the Texans roster by routinely drilling kicks attempted at or near the edge of his range. Inside of 50 yards, he’s a perfect 35 for 35 this season and has posted a 91.7 conversion rate overall (his four misses came from 50-plus yards, but he’s converted 9 of 13 such attempts). It’s not the most seductive note in a playoff game, but we all know these games can often rest on the foot of a kicker — and we’re in for a battle of stalwarts on Monday night.