CALGARY — Things are looking up for the Pittsburgh Penguins these days.
While in a playoff spot and enjoying a feel-good season, team president/general manager Kyle Dubas has stocked the cupboards with real talent for the first time in two decades.
The Penguins are especially pleased with their situation at forward, largely thanks to their three first-round picks in last June’s draft: all forwards whom the Penguins believe will become impactful players.
They are also smitten with their goaltending prospects, believing their organizational depth to be some of hockey’s best at that position. They aren’t as strong on the blue line, but starting with 19-year-old Harrison Brunicke, there is enough to like about their situation there, too.
Dubas and the Penguins do have a problem, though: Where will their star power come from in the future?
Sidney Crosby is 38. Evgeni Malkin is 39. Erik Karlsson is 35. Kris Letang is 38.
Those are the Penguins’ biggest names, and you don’t win championships without star power. Dubas has repeatedly stated that he has “urgency” to turn the Penguins into a championship contender year in and year out.
Even if Crosby continues his pursuit of ageless brilliance for a few more years, that won’t be enough. He’s been great in the past three seasons, none of which have resulted in a playoff berth. Malkin and Karlsson have turned back the clock this season — Letang has been noticeably better in recent weeks, too — but they’ll fade in coming seasons.
So, the Penguins look like they’ll have plenty of depth. They have wonderful middle-six candidates on the way. They’re still flush with draft picks. They have enough cap space to turn free agency into a bonanza. But the star-power problem is real.
Superstars very seldom become available on July 1. And when they do, bidding wars tend to cause overpays. Teams rarely let their best players get to unrestricted free agency, anyway.
There is one more problem: Crosby. Really. He’s so good that the Penguins are unlikely to get a top-five pick with him around. The Penguins are actually on an upswing. They aren’t great, but they’re in playoff position and, given their more than $50 million of projected cap space and young players ready to join the NHL, they might not be headed backwards for a while. The goal, of course, is to do more than hover in the middle of the pack.
So, if free agency and the draft are less impactful, the Penguins’ route to land a star is through trading.
The Penguins absolutely love Jason Robertson. They aren’t alone, of course. The 26-year-old Dallas Stars forward has 56 points in 49 games. He’ll be in extreme demand if the Stars make him available.
He is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this summer and an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027. Dallas has already locked up stars Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Jake Oettinger. Those six players will cost Dallas over $56 million annually through 2029.
Keeping Robertson, who is one of the NHL’s best wingers despite being kept off Team USA’s Olympic roster, is going to be an extremely difficult chore. The Penguins will be in a prime position behind an enticing mix of NHL veterans, draft picks and more than enough cap space to satisfy Robertson’s financial requests.
Robertson is a young star, and the Penguins badly covet one of those. They could spend whatever it takes to get him without badly disrupting their rebuild.
I don’t envision the Penguins trying to sign Robertson as a restricted free agent — the compensation for that approach is over the top. But I’d be shocked if Dubas didn’t engage in trade discussions if Dallas decides there’s no way it can bring him back long-term.
Trade season is open
The NHL trade deadline is set for March 6, and naturally, there will be a flurry of deals on that day.
However, we should see a handful of moves in early February as an Olympics roster freeze runs from Feb. 4-22.
We’ve already seen a couple of significant trades around the league in recent days, with Rasmus Andersson going from Calgary to Vegas and Kiefer Sherwood headed from Vancouver to San Jose.
General managers around the NHL are well aware that only a handful of teams are true “sellers,” which could lower the number of players available and escalate asking prices. In other words, the early bird might get the worm. NHL executives I’ve spoken with all expect more deals to be completed before Feb. 4.
Malkin discussion still on
The plan for Malkin’s representatives to meet with Dubas and the Penguins remains on schedule for the Olympic break.
Malkin’s stance hasn’t changed: He’d be willing to sign a one-year extension, he’d be willing to take a pay cut from his annual $6.1 million salary and he doesn’t have interest in playing for any other franchise. He realizes this could be his final season but doesn’t really want to retire yet.
The Penguins were not interested in giving him a new deal after last season. His performance this season — 10 goals and 35 points in 33 games — has exceeded everyone’s expectations. But he will be 40 this summer and has missed 13 or more games in 11 of his past 14 seasons, including this one.
Some perspective on Letang
I spoke with former Penguins assistant coach Todd Reirden, who’s now on Rick Tocchet’s Flyers staff, after the Penguins’ win against Philadelphia last week. Much as Tocchet was once known as the Phil Kessel whisperer, Reirden historically was able to push Kris Letang to considerable heights and continues to have a very close relationship with the longtime Penguins defenseman.
Reirden noted that Letang has been playing much better recently. He also said Brett Kulak is the perfect defense partner for Letang because of his skating ability. Reirden went so far as to note that Kulak has some similar attributes with Brian Dumoulin, the defense partner with whom Letang enjoyed his greatest success.
More than a decade ago, Letang became very agitated by having Rob Scuderi as his defense partner. Scuderi, especially at the end of his career, wasn’t a good skater. Letang didn’t feel comfortable with him. Ryan Shea, whom Letang played alongside most of the first half of this season, is a better player than late-stage Scuderi, but he doesn’t move like Kulak. This could well explain the very noticeable uptick in Letang’s recent play.
New contract for Shea?
Speaking of Shea, he is an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Penguins really like the soon-to-be 29-year-old who’s solidified himself, at worst, as a dependable third-pairing defenseman and a respected locker room presence.
Given the general lack of blue-line talent in the Penguins’ system — they have some talent there, yes, but most of it won’t be NHL-ready for a couple of years — I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shea receive a new contract before he’s able to hit the market.
He’s gotten better with each NHL season, and the Penguins would like to keep him around.