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With no single headline event driving attention today, Erie Indemnity (ERIE) is drawing interest for its recent share performance, including a negative 3 month return and a weaker 1 year total return.
The stock’s recent moves sit against a backdrop of annual revenue of about US$4.0b and net income of roughly US$648m, supported by positive annual revenue and net income growth figures.
See our latest analysis for Erie Indemnity.
At a share price of US$286.88, Erie Indemnity’s recent 1 day and 7 day share price gains sit alongside a 90 day share price return that is 11.1% lower and a 1 year total shareholder return of 23.4% lower. This suggests momentum has cooled, even as longer term total shareholder returns over 3 and 5 years remain positive.
If you are comparing Erie Indemnity with other insurers or financial names, it could be a useful moment to scan for ideas across fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot different risk and growth profiles.
So with Erie Indemnity’s cooling 1 year return but still positive 3 and 5 year track record, is the current US$286.88 share price an overlooked entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
On earnings, Erie Indemnity trades on a P/E of 23.2x, which sets a clear premium against both peers and our fair multiple estimate at the current US$286.88 share price.
The P/E ratio compares what investors are paying today for each dollar of earnings, and it is a common yardstick for insurers and other financial companies. For Erie Indemnity, this higher multiple sits alongside earnings that are forecast to grow, but not significantly, and at a pace that is slower than the wider US market.
Relative to the US Insurance industry average P/E of 12.6x, Erie Indemnity’s 23.2x looks materially richer. It is also above the estimated fair P/E of 15.1x that our model suggests the market could gravitate toward. That premium hints that investors are currently paying up for the company’s high quality earnings and strong 28.1% return on equity, even though forecast earnings and revenue growth rates are below broader market levels.
Explore the SWS fair ratio for Erie Indemnity
Result: Price-to-Earnings of 23.2x (OVERVALUED)
However, you also need to weigh risks such as a 23.4% 1-year total return decline and a P/E premium that could compress if sentiment toward insurers softens.
Find out about the key risks to this Erie Indemnity narrative.
Our DCF model also points to Erie Indemnity trading on the expensive side, with the current US$286.88 share price sitting above an estimated fair value of US$221.51. In this case, both earnings multiples and cash flow point to a premium, which raises the question: what is the market paying up for?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
ERIE Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Erie Indemnity for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 874 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
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A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Erie Indemnity.
If Erie Indemnity is on your radar, do not stop there. The market is full of other angles to consider, and the right screener can quickly surface them.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ERIE.
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