In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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One Sheet Of All Pirates SPs:
Expected Starters
Paul Skenes (RHP)
2025 Stats: 187.2 IP | 1.97 ERA | 0.95 WHIP | 29.5 K% | 5.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Aces gonna ace. Skenes has 3 different pitches at 94+ mph with different movement and his ability to throw exceptionally hard and locate well is bonkers. He actually has three flaws in his arsenal – a mediocre feel for spin, a four-seamer with an average SwStr rate against RHB, and a lack of depth to fend off LHB – but he so easily navigates through lineups, generating weak contact vs RHB, while the four-seamer carves up LHB at an 18% SwStr rate that has returned two straight seasons of sub 2.00 ERA ball. He’s a crafty/command pitcher who happens to have elite velocity. You know what’s wild? I don’t think he’s mastered his approach yet. I mean, he’s still 23-years-old and is still figuring out how to best use his weapons. His quality floor is so high that I have him ranked above Skubal (GASP!) and I’m stoked to watch him pitch for another season. He’s just so good.
Quick Take: He’s dope and makes us feel dope. He allowed absurdly low ICR marks on everything to RHB, while he’s still figuring his secondaries for LHB, letting the four-seamer cook at a 18% SwStr in the meantime. Expect elite marks across the board, though he’ll likely have slightly less volume than Crochet and Skubal.
Mitch Keller (RHP)
2025 Stats: 176.1 IP | 4.19 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 20.0 K% | 6.8 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Not this again. The one thing Keller brings to the table is volume. That means his 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP from last year came with 17 Quality Starts (over half of his outings!) as those ratios speak to some great days and some poor days. He’s not going to pitch exactly to those ratios all season, of course. How does he get to the finish line? With as much thrill as a bus sitting in traffic. He’ll get there, but can I just get there already? Why does it have to smell like this while I wait? Keller’s fastballs are deadzone with average velocity, making his sinker the more effective one of the pair as RHB hope to see the four-seamer and get the sinker on the inner half instead, often rolling over for an out. That said, HUGE props to Keller for his HR prevention on his four-seamer across the last two seasons against RHB – He allowed 14 HR combined from 2021-2023, and hasn’t allowed one since. What’s that? Oh, he still allowed HRs, of course. Just against LHB (6 HR off the four-seamer last year alone). Womp womp.
There are some days that Keller has his sweeper or slider earning whiffs to RHB, and that’s all rad and dandy when it shows up, but it’s mostly for RHB (just one pitch returned above a 9% SwStr rate to LHBs last year – his slider that was thrown just 12% of the time and heavily in two-strike counts), and I can’t endorse a pitcher who returned a 41-48% ICR on 87% of his pitches against LHB last year (his changeup was okay…?).
If you want to go for Keller, you must be in a deep league that loves Quality Starts. And that’s cool! Heck, I’d even say you can stream Keller here and there in 12-teamer QS leagues. But hot dang, please don’t settle for this. You could do so much more with your draft pick.
Quick Take: Keller’s best asset is his volume – three straight seasons of max starts with a long leash – but you’re better off not having his ratios root your team from taking off, especially over such a large number of frames. His fastballs are too hittable and he lacks overwhelming secondaries to take over games, making him a streamer in QS leagues, and a target only for 15-teamers at the shallowest.
Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)
2025 Stats: 69.2 IP | 2.71 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 24.3 K% | 8.2 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Does Ashcraft break the Huascar Rule? I’m not sure. His slider is one of the best in baseball at 92 mph, returning 70%+ strikes at a 33% CSW to LHB, while barely missing the 70% strike clip to RHB, but making up for it with a 21% SwStr rate across 39% usage. The rest? Not nearly as good, despite the high 96/97 mph velocity. His four-seamer returned a 4.63 PLV despite a 62% strike rate and that velo – it’s an Empty Velocity fastball. However, Ashcraft wisely turns to the sinker as much as his four-seamer to RHB, trusting it 24% of the time to plenty of weak contact. If only that worked against LHB, too.
It should be no surprise that the biggest concern is against LHB, where the fastballs are failing him often. However, between 22% sliders and 31% curveballs, Ashcraft has the potential to wriggle out of at-bats without a ton of damage. I’m not quite ready to trust the command of his hook, but watching it dive under bats at 84/85 mph is all kinds of gorgeous. Think about it: You know 84 mph sliders are mediocre. What if that had a boatload more movement at the same velocity? That’s Ashcraft’s curveball. Oh snap. Sadly, he doesn’t come with Chandler’s precision and I’m concerned relying upon Ashcraft’s slider to get everything done.
Ashcraft’s 2025 season can also be a little deceiving. These numbers I’m citing came from a season of mostly relief appearances, or limited starts – Ashcraft didn’t throw 75 pitches in a single game, tallying five frames just three times. That means fewer times against the third through the lineup, higher velocity (he can gas it), and better results. He wasn’t tested for a wider arsenal a whole lot and now the Pirates will be asking him to go 80+ pitches every five days. Injury risk aside, I worry how much it’ll impact the per-inning performance.
In your 12-teamers, I’m fine giving it a shot and seeing how it goes. The slider is certainly disgusting and leaning more on the sinker to RHB + nailing down the curveball and keeping the four-seamer up while pushing his slider over 22% usage could improve his marks against LHB. It may not be smooth sailing, though, and I’m concerned we have a HIPSTER on our hands.
Quick Take: The 92 mph slider is as alluring of a breaker as you’ll find, but despite the high 96/97 mph velocity, Ashcraft’s heaters are not the stable foundation we normally see from fastball/slider arms. Command and arsenal depth is a concern, while his lack of experience going deep into games has me concerned he won’t take the step forward the velocity and slider suggests.
Bubba Chandler (RHP)
2025 Stats: 31.1 IP | 4.02 ERA | 0.93 WHIP | 25.0 K% | 3.2 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
I swear, the Pirates better not deny us even more time of the Bubba experience. His four-seamer doesn’t have the greatest movement, but the velocity and command are elite. The stellar foundation sits 98/99 mph and he pounds the top of the zone with confidence, leaning into its flat 1.2 HAVAA at nearly 17″ of vert and decent horizontal that creates 89th percentile total four-seamer break. That’s why we’re all hyped about the fella. It’s a better heater than all of the other young arms save for Misiorowski (better than Burns even!) and Chandler has better command of his. So what’s the downside? Well, there are many questions.
First, what will his volume look like? He doesn’t have the same “if healthy” volume floor as the Pirates are likely going to keep him around 140-150 IP in his first full season. It may lead to getting pulled before 80 pitches often, making it hard for him to find the sixth inning as frequently as his peers. Second, I still need to see more from the rest of his arsenal. He features an 89 mph gyro slider (and an 85 mph curveball…with the same movement save for four more inches of drop?!) that wasn’t dotted down-and-away as I expected given his phenomenal four-seamer feel. It was still highly successful paired with the four-seamer and returned 70% strikes across its 32% usage to RHB, but just 12% whiffs at a 23% whiff rate (that’s awfully low). He should get more whiffs with it, but that’s the road of wishcasting and I’m trying not to do that. I wish there was a deeper RHB approach instead of mostly fastball/slider (wait, where’s a sinker? I thought this was the Pirates?!) but he was limited and we’ll likely see it expanded in 2026.
Against LHB, the changeup takes the stage to support the heater, and like the slider, it’s not quite there yet. There’s fantastic fade at 92 mph – especially relative to the four-seamer – but he gets on the side of the ball a bit too often, falling off the side of the mound on delivery, making it float away from the desired spot. It’s double-plus when executed, but I want a consistent #2 pitch, not a volatile #1/#3.
I’m stoked to watch more. He’s going to be different from last season, probably with a little less velocity and your standard slipping on the Shag Rug, but make no mistake, this isn’t Jobe 2.0. Chandler’s four-seamer is too big to fail and I’d bank on development far more than failure.
Quick Take: Chandler is a talented arm with a massive fastball that he uses to attack the zone without fear. The slider and changeup are not quite as refined, but are still effective even in their present forms, and I’d expect growth somewhere across the full arsenal as he starts out of the gate for the Pirates. If he were to add a cutter and sinker to the mix to aid against LHB and RHB, respectively, the sky’s the limit.
On The Fringe
Jared Jones (RHP)
2024 Stats: 121.2 IP | 4.14 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 26.2 K% | 7.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
He’s already on the 60-day IL, which makes his earliest return May 25th, and we may see Jones return close to the date as he recovers from Internal Brace UCL surgery. We’ve already seen him throw a bullpen this spring and if you compare Jones and Chandler, Jones’ skillset is better. Whoa. Yeah. Don’t forget, his four-seamer was a Fan4+ darling, with a slider that missed far more bats than Chandler’s. Then there was a sinker getting introduced, a flirtation with more changeups, and I just love the guy. If he comes back around June 1st, that seems like a fantastic timeline for him to pitch four straight months through the end of the season, marking him as one of the premier IL stashes during your draft. It’s just that simple. Once you have your established starters, let yourself enjoy one of Cole, Jones, Wheeler, or Rodón. Don’t go too heavily into these guys – you’re going to need at least one if not multiple IL spot before they return and there is always risk that rehab doesn’t go according to plan or they don’t look the same (Strider) – but yes, I’m expecting Jones to be easily inside the Top 30 SP a week after he returns. Take that as you will.
Quick Take: He’s an elite talent when he’s on the mound, it’s just a matter of health. He can return as soon as May 25th from Internal Brace UCL surgery and you should have him circled as an IL stash among Wheeler, Cole, and Rodón.
José Urquidy (RHP)
2025 Stats: 2.1 IP | 7.71 ERA | 3.00 WHIP | 21.4 K% | 21.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The Pirates took a chance on Urquidy after he missed all of 2024 and nearly all of 2025 recovering from TJS and in the absurdly brief 2.1 inning showcase last season, Urquidy had the same fastball of old, featuring 100th percentile iVB at his above-average – but not absurdly high – arm angle, and generally the same stuff as he had prior, which makes me awfully intrigued. Urquidy at his peak was a fastball/change arm, though he had a great feel for a big curveball to LHB, and his slider/sweeper was an effective weapon to RHB. In addition, he adapted a sinker inside to RHB, commanded it well, and it did its best to tamp a rough campaign. We also saw Urquidy throw five cutters in his moment on the bump last season, featuring it 29% of the time to RHB at 88 mph after only displaying the pitch 7% of the time in 2022. Sure seems like he gravitated toward it during rehab and I’d expect it to appear in the season ahead.
As long as Urquidy has his spot in the rotation, I kinda dig this for 15-teamers. He was a command pitcher prior, had a down year (maybe already injured and pitched through it?), and now that he has the same stuff as before, it sure seems like the perfect flier for a Toby to return to form, doesn’t it? That said, this is a deeper league play and not one for your 12-teamers, sadly. Hopefully he turns into a streamer across the season, but I wouldn’t chase this in drafts.
Quick Take: Urquidy had a down year in 2023, then has disappeared from the public eye as he’s recovered from TJS. The stuff is generally the same and the Pirates seem ready to trust him in a lengthy role for the season to provide safety for their younger arsenal. Don’t count him out quite yet in your deeper leagues.
Names To Know
Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)
He looks like the sixth option for the Pirates, though he’s been in the same situation as Ashcraft – limited by the Pirates a ton in 2025 and questionable to be trusted again. He did begin the season with a little more trust, including 92 pitches in just his second game of the season, and he was regularly in the rotation until he was demoted in the middle of May and brought back in July to pitch out of the pen the rest of the way. And also like Ashcraft, Mlodzinski has an Empty Velocity four-seamer at 96 mph, and he also has a great slider, but at 88 mph, not Braxton’s 92 mph. He also carries an 85 mph curveball that is all kinds of filth and I simply don’t understand why Carmen features it just 10% of the time to both RHB and LHB. Paired with his sinker that has two-plane ride and dive to RHB (he needs to command it a little better) and suddenly you have a recipe for something interesting. Just stop throwing the four-seamer so much, alright? But it had a 36% ICR to LHB. Fine. But can we lower it from 43% to like 30%? There’s actually enough toothpaste here for a full season, we just gotta roll the tube.
Thomas Harrington (RHP)
Yeaaaah, I don’t think Harrington should be on your radar. He sits 92 mph with a mediocre with good command + a cutter & slider/sweeper that have too much lift at their low velocities to be major weapons to counteract the lack of velocity. LHB see splitters as the main counter to the 92 mph heater and, well, it’s a splitter. I love them as #3 pitches as a putaway pitch, and I hate them when they need to fill the “strike that isn’t a fastball” void. I suggest looking elsewhere.
Mike Clevinger (LHP)
The Pirates signed Clevinger as an NRI and the dude hasn’t been anything properly worthwhile since 2019 with the Guardians. Can we not? Cool, thanks.
Mason Montgomery (LHP)
He’s a reliever, as much as I want to gush about his potential as a starter. But he was terrible as a reliever for the Rays with a 5.67 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Yeah, he couldn’t find the zone n whatnot, but he had an 18% SwStr rate and a four-seamer that is still disgusting at 99 mph with a flat attack angle, good extension, and 17-18″ of vert that is likely not incredible at his arm angle. If only he had a better slider and a third pitch, let alone the chance to be a starter. Sigh.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Hunter Barco (LHP, 25, AAA) – Watch Video
Barco got a taste of the majors last season as a reliever for two games during the final week of the season and I’m not too impressed by his arsenal. It’s a 93+ mph fastball with two-plane movement but neither are special (at a 22-degree arm angle, is 14″+ vert good…? I don’t think it’s enough, but I may be wrong), with a splitter and gyro slider that has a bit extra sweep at 82 mph. He earned 82 punchouts in 73.2 IP during his time in Triple-A last season and it’s just…not enough? I think this is a wait and see, especially without a typical changeup to label him as a potential SWATCH (splitters are not reliable, y’all).
Wilber Dotel (RHP, 23, AA) – Watch Video
I kinda dig Dotel. His four-seamer sits mid-90s and appears to come at a flat angle with good vert (still waiting for data) and mixes in a sinker sporadically (as one should!), an upper 80s slider/cutter with two-plane break, and even a split-change that can miss bats against both LHB/RHB, albeit with standard volatility. 2025 began and ended in Double-A, with 125.2 IP and a strong 131/43 K-to-BB ratio, and if he adds a little more polish in Triple-A this year (and the data confirms the eye test), he’ll turn some heads.
Antwone Kelly (RHP, 22, AA) – Watch Video
There’s reliever risk with Kelly as a fastball-first arm with a whiffable secondary and not much else, especially with some questions of his slider control. He took a step forward in 2025 to grab a 27% strikeout rate with a sub 8% walk rate in 107.1 frames of A+ and AA, and climbed to triple digits in brief moments. Expect a move to Triple-A shortly and flirtation with a call-up by the end of the year if the arsenal fills out well.
Seth Hernandez (RHP, 19, ROK) – Watch Video
Hernandez was selected 6th overall by the Pirates in 2025, armed with a mid-90s heater that can touch 97/98 mph. A spiked curve is a trusty companion as a legit hammer with proper depth, with a slider and change to fill out the package. He showcased great control in High School and he dominated the Dominican League over the winter, but we haven’t seen him face professional batters yet. I’d be shocked if Hernandez makes such an impression that he finds his way to Pittsburgh this season, let alone in 2027.