The governor has poured personal funds and high-profile endorsements into contested primaries, risking intra-party backlash as he pursues a strategic path to national prominence.
If Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro aims to help Democrats regain control of the U.S. House, his path could run through Pennsylvania, where he is directing his efforts to flip four districts currently held by Republicans.
Shapiro has pledged to back three candidates in these districts, including one competitive primary. He also recruited an ally for the position of state party chair and donated more than $925,000 from his own account this cycle, including $400,000 in April, according to campaign data.
A victory in these districts alongside the re-election of Shapiro himself could significantly boost his political profile should he seek the presidency in 2028. At the same time, it carries political risks: he is trying to help Democrats unseat long-serving incumbents and strengthen his candidate’s position in the 7th District.
“Josh isn’t the kind of person to put his name behind something without a strong push… he’s not the kind to get discouraged,”
– one of the Pennsylvania Democratic strategists (anonymous)
The governor surprised some Democrats and disappointed others by backing Bob Brooks – the head of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association – in the race against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
Brooks supporters say he will better appeal to the district’s working-class voters than his rivals – former U.S. Attorney Ryan Crosswell, former head of the nonprofit Carol Obando-Derstine, and former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure.
“I think of Josh Shapiro as a great governor, but I don’t understand why he would wade into such a competitive primary,”
– former U.S. Representative Susan Wild, who supports Obando-Derstine
The biggest test will come in November, when Democrats need to defeat Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan, Scott Perry, and Mackenzie.
Bresnahan and Mackenzie were elected in 2024 after defeating incumbent Democrats in tight races. Fitzpatrick and Perry have held those seats for a long time, and Democrats have repeatedly tried to tilt the field in their favor. Democrats hope for a favorable climate during the midterms to seize the initiative across all four districts. It is also noted that Donald Trump will not be on the ballot in November, which could affect turnout; Josh Shapiro himself, who won in 2022 with a 15-point margin, will top the ticket.
“Governor Shapiro is fighting to keep taking steps to benefit our community and stop Washington’s chaos, brutality, and corruption that hurt Pennsylvania families,”
– Manuel Bonder
The state’s most promising district is considered the 7th: Mackenzie defeated Wild in 2024 by just a one-point margin. Wild, who first flipped the district in 2018, decided not to run again.
Brooks, supported by a broad range of state politicians and national circles, has made his campaign’s core theme – support from Shapiro – a centerpiece. In the campaign site’s “red box” section, it states that the most important thing is that likely Democratic primary voters learn of the governor’s support for Brooks. Shapiro has already held a fundraising event in support of Brooks last year and appeared in Brooks’ first television ad at the start of this month.
Crosswell, the fundraising leader in the race, noted during recent debates that he has raised more money than his rivals, “not relying on other people’s coalitions as a burden.”
Patri Karlis, a Democratic volunteer from Bethlehem who supports Crosswell, criticized Brooks’ emphasis on endorsements. “I want to hear what they will do as congressmen, who they are as people and what issues they see,” Karlis said. She also noted that she supports Shapiro’s re-election, but would like to see more trust from the governor toward Democratic voters about which candidate best represents their region in the U.S. House.
Shapiro said in a statement that Brooks “has always supported him” and he “is proud to back him in this race and stand with him in the fight for a more affordable life.” The governor noted that he met Brooks during firefighter union lobbying in support of firefighter benefits before the state legislature.
“Politics is a dirty business – many Washington insiders who don’t want more working people in government are deliberately digging up old Facebook posts,”
– Brooks
Some Latino leaders also claim that Brooks is not actively engaging with their communities. The district has a 23% Latino population; Allentown, the largest city in Lehigh County, has about 56% Latino population. Brooks’s allies, including Allentown’s first Latino mayor, Matt Tuerk, say that Brooks regularly attends Latino community events. Victor Martinez, a district radio station owner, previously published that Shapiro had “sent the wrong message” and that the governor was motivated by a desire to win firefighters’ support. Shapiro’s office later reached out to him, and the governor explained on air that his support was “personal” rather than political.
“I support Bob because I believe in him,”
– Josh Shapiro
Regarding the primaries, expectations vary: some believe Brooks has the stronger position, while others think Crosswell could use his campaign as a vote of confidence.
The Cook Political Report’s analysis rates the 7th district as a “swing district,” as do the 8th and 10th, where Bresnahan, Perry, and others will face strong opponents. The 1st district, where Democratic Commissioner Bob Harvie challenges Fitzpatrick, is considered leaning Republican.
“I see Fitzpatrick as probably the toughest to beat, but over time luck may run out,” said Mike Mikus, a Pennsylvania political strategist. “You can’t keep pushing your luck when you’re riding a wave.”
The Republicans express optimism: “Good luck,” said Chris Pack, a Republican strategist who heads the super-PAC backing Fitzpatrick, “but Democrats will have a hard time assessing their chances in all four contests.”
Prospects and Next Steps
Fitzpatrick, a long-time incumbent and former FBI agent, has held his seat through the 2018 wave and again in 2024, when Donald Trump won the state, but his district overall leaned Republican. Democrats believe that gains in 2025, particularly in Bucks County, could bolster their candidates across the districts. Harvie is considered the stronger candidate since he represents the district and was elected in 2019 and 2023. “I was asked recently: how do you get people who vote for Fitzpatrick to vote for me? My answer: I already did,” said Harvie.
Shapiro backs Cognetti and Stelson and, according to two sources, is close to backing Harvie in the near future. Representative Chris DeLuzio praised the governor for his active involvement in the competition: “Josh Shapiro has been a great partner for me and others who are trying to restore the House of Representatives,” DeLuzio noted. “I know, as he does, that the majority can come through Pennsylvania.”
“Politics is a dirty business – many Washington insiders who don’t want more working people in government are deliberately digging up old Facebook posts,”
– Brooks
Regarding prospects, the 7th district is considered the most promising for candidate recruitment. Mackenzie defeated Wild in 2024 by a one-point margin, and Wild decided not to run again after her 2018 victory. Brooks has the support of numerous state politicians and national circles, but his campaign is dogged by questions about his engagement with diverse communities. In Allentown, with about 56% Latino population and in the district with 23% Latino population, leaders note Brooks’s active outreach to these groups. Radio station owner Victor Martinez previously said Shapiro sent the wrong message, but the governor’s office explained that his support was personal, not political.
Overall, Democrats expect that the 2025 midterms and successes in Bucks County will position their candidates better across the districts. In this context, Shapiro continues to work with potential candidates and back those who view him as a partner in reclaiming the U.S. House. Finally, the coming months are pivotal for Pennsylvania and national politics, as they will determine the balance in the House and Shapiro’s influence on future races.