Penguins Analysis: Three Players to Re-Sign, One Big Maybe

The furious intensity of the Stanley Cup Playoffs can be a cruel drug. One day, preparations, both mental and physical, are underway. Coaches are game planning and everyone’s focus is forward on the game. The next day, there is … nothingness. The Pittsburgh Penguins experienced that record scratch moment Thursday after their season ended in overtime of Round One Game 6 to the Philadelphia Flyers at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

And now, instead of coach Dan Muse, the focus shifts to general manager Kyle Dubas and his continued efforts to reshape the Penguins organization.

Dubas has few decisions with regard to the current roster. There is not a cavalcade of free agents with whom he must negotiate, and the negotiations that will take place do not figure to be complicated or messy. Not even with Evgeni Malkin.

The Penguins have more than enough salary cap space for next season. The organization has just $58.2 million committed to 17 NHL players next season, and the salary cap will rise to $104 million. No, cap space won’t be an issue, but pushing the team forward–not necessarily to be immediately better–will be the focus.

The public will intently watch the Evgeni Malkin situation. Heck, even Malkin will be watching the Malkin situation. Perhaps Friday, reporters will learn that Dubas delivered a new contract to Malkin or sent a save the date card for negotiations. Or, perhaps we will get the final verdict on the contract saga.

Regardless, the offseason has begun.

Penguins to Re-Sign

1. Ryan Shea

It is very simple. He fits with the Penguins, and the Penguins need him. The defenseman performed yeoman’s work for the first half of the season playing beside Kris Letang and showed himself to be defensively aware in all situations and able to clean up messes when the play broke down. He and Letang did not have great chemistry, and the pairing was limited, but in the process Shea showed an ability to contribute in the offensive zone while playing physically in front of his net.

“He’s earned his payday,” Dubas said last month on the 32 Thoughts podcast.

Shea, 28, is finishing a two-year deal that carried a mere $900,000 cap hit. The defenseman is in his prime and led the team with a healthy plus-30 rating, which was 13 goals better than the next best player, Parker Wotherspoon. Shea also set career highs in goals (6), assists (29) and points (35).

Sources have indicated that the player is quite content in Pittsburgh and is not eyeing free agency unless shoved that way.

Expect Shea to get $3 million-plus per season over a few years.

2. Egor Chinakhov

As a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, Chinakhov, 24, has some leverage, though not the same leverage as an unrestricted free agent. The Penguins acquired the young, hard-shooting, slick skating winger from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a small care package of future draft picks (a 2026 second-round draft pick, and a 2027 third-round draft pick), and Danton Heinen.

At mid-season, AFP Analytics, which has a good track record of properly projecting UFA and RFA contracts based on calculations of production and previous market forces, projected Chinakhov to get $2.1 million for next season.

Then Chinakhov settled with the Penguins and went on a tear in the second half. He will get more than the mid-season projection and might get a longer-term deal. Dubas has the power to choose the term, but bringing back a potential pillar of the Penguins’ top six for years to come is a no-brainer.

How many wingers have a 90 mph wrist shot? Pay him. Pay that man his money (Rounders reference).

3. Connor Dewar

If there was any doubt about his return, Connor Dewar settled the discussion with a strong playoff performance. In the regular season, he set career highs with 14 goals, 30 points, and a plus-14 rating.

His tireless and scrappy work on the Penguins’ fourth line added identity and grit to a team that often lacks it. His speedy chemistry with Blake Lizotte (and Noel Acciari), created a formidable fourth-line that flipped territory and allowed the top players to start their shifts in the offensive zone. And the Penguins’ penalty killing was a top-5 unit for most of this season.

4. Goalie?

Prospect Sergei Murashov needs to begin next season in the NHL. There’s not much debate, so the Penguins cannot bring back both Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner.

Silovs, 25, is fresh from his brilliant performance in the Game 6 loss and is a restricted free agent. Stuart Skinner, 27, has a couple of Stanley Cup Final appearances on his resume and was Muse’s choice to start the playoffs.

Skinner is projected to get a two-year deal worth about $3.8 million. Silovs is slated for a one-year deal at about $2 million, according to AFP.

Our early projection defies public consensus. While most expect Silovs to return, PHN believes Skinner’s higher price tag will be worth it not because he is better than Silovs, but because he would be a better mentor and tandem partner for Murashov. Silovs aspires to be the lead goalie somewhere–he progressed this season and our gut feeling from conversations throughout the season is that he wants the net. Skinner’s experience and temperament make him more likely to share his toys with another rookie next season.

As one person close to the organization described him, “Skinner is comfortable in his own skin.”

Bonus: Maybe?

This category is solely for Evgeni Malkin. His contract status has as much to do with the organization’s direction as it does his age, as it does his resurgent play this season, as it does his struggles in the playoffs.

There are more variables to consider, not the least of which is the purely symbolic nature of re-signing him or letting the soon-to-be 40-year-old walk.

PHN’s gut feeling is that when a parent tells you–“We’ll talk later” or “We’ll see,” it usually means no. And that’s our gut on this situation, too. Dubas could have dished a contract between the end of the regular season and playoffs, or at any point after Malkin began making public comments.

Malkin’s injuries later in the season–a shoulder and an undisclosed upper-body malady–don’t burnish his credentials to return.

Tags: arturs silovs Evgeni Malkin kyle duabs stuart skinner

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