Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 9’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.

Acrisure will breathe like a forge this afternoon, a low roar threading through cool air and history. Indianapolis arrives at seven–one with the AFC’s top seed in its pocket and a plane to Berlin on deck, the kind of human-week wrinkle staffs swear they can mute. Pittsburgh counters with four–three urgency, a crowd that rattles snap counts, and a franchise reflex that stiffens when the schedule turns heavy. Noise will bite into cadence, Wrolstad’s crew will police hand-fighting, and you can feel two arcs colliding: Daniel Jones’ redemption push against Aaron Rodgers’ November theater. Tomlin’s home-dog reflex will press both sidelines into sharper fourth-down choices and bolder early-down shots. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 9’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Indianapolis brings the league’s most ruthless efficiency, averaging 33.8 points and 385.3 yards per game with balance that travels. Jones has stacked 2,062 yards at 71.2% with thirteen touchdowns and three interceptions, taking only nine sacks, which keeps the playbook open on second down. Jonathan Taylor drives the heartbeat with 850 rushing yards, 106.3 per game, and 5.9 per carry, the kind of floor that forces light boxes to pay. The pass game layers into that gravity: Michael Pittman has 43 catches for 446 yards and six touchdowns, while Tyler Warren adds 492 yards on 37 grabs as a seam-and-screens stressor. The opponent profile invites aggression because Pittsburgh allows 386.0 yards, bleeds 273.3 through the air, and has produced only five interceptions despite twenty-two sacks.

The other matchup still crackles. Pittsburgh scores 25.0 per game on 297.1 yards, a modest volume that can still sting when protected. Rodgers has 1,489 yards with sixteen touchdowns and five picks on 68.3% completions, and he still unlocks space vertically. D.K. Metcalf sits at 461 yards and five touchdowns on twenty-seven receptions, the classic backside iso that punishes single-high. Jaylen Warren gives them 373 rushing yards at 4.5 per carry, enough to keep early downs honest if the interior moves people. That meets a Colts defense allowing 19.3 points, 93.1 rushing yards, and 252.0 passing yards while stealing ten interceptions and piling twenty-three sacks, with DeForest Buckner at four and Nick Cross leading with fifty-six tackles.

Pittsburgh’s intangible stew matters. Illness scratches gutted the second level late in the week, and the safety room remains in flux, a continuity tax that shows up on seams, crossers, and red-zone leverage. That dovetails with your file’s schedule-adjusted lens: over the recent window, Pittsburgh is one of the two most permissive defenses in fantasy terms for opposing quarterbacks, a proxy that tracks with real EPA and air damage allowed. Acrisure’s noise still complicates Indy’s protections, but Indianapolis has already framed the week around silent counts and condensed splits, a tell that tempo, motion, and quicks will headline the first fifteen. Clean November weather keeps footing true and extends kick range, which nudges total volatility higher.

Colts vs. Steelers pick, best bet

The counterargument leans into heritage and situational gravity. Mike Tomlin as a home dog energizes that building, and Rodgers still manipulates safeties with cadence and eyes. Wrolstad’s crew can tilt a few hidden yards with defensive holding and DPI, and Indianapolis does fly to Europe after this, which can compress late-week install and sap detail. Those are real wrinkles, and they can stretch a spread. They do not erase the structural edge, because Indianapolis sustains drives with early-down consistency and red-zone precision while Pittsburgh’s back end leaks explosives and spacing rules.

The market lists Indianapolis at -3.5 with a 50.5 total, and both teams have lived on overs in these intersections. Indianapolis 6-2 ATS, with overs hitting in five of eight; Pittsburgh games have cleared in five of seven. The series leans high at Acrisure, and clean weather removes the classic North-shore drag. Slate notes tag this environment fast-paced and shootout-viable, and the ref tilt historically softens a Tomlin home-dog edge while adding basis points to pass-heavy sequences. In short, spread angles exist, but the stronger conviction sits on the total.

Indianapolis should lean into eleven and condensed stacks, stressing Pittsburgh’s rotating safeties with motion, jet looks, and glance RPOs that pull the second level wide. Taylor’s left-side menu matches a documented vulnerability: Pittsburgh has allowed 4.7 yards per carry and a 14.4% explosive-run rate to that lane, while Taylor has ripped better going left with a majority of his explosives there. That run threat sets Jones on rhythm throws between the numbers, with Warren living on seams and screens and Pittman owning digs and intermediate outs against off coverage. Pittsburgh will counter with simulated pressure and width from T.J. Watt to squeeze launch points, but Jones’ sack avoidance and quick-game commitment keep down-and-distance friendly. On the other sideline, Pittsburgh should chase chunk answers. Rodgers will spam tempo, hard counts, and quicks to Metcalf, then hunt two or three deep shots off max protect. Jaylen Warren’s efficiency buys second-and-manageable, but the script tilts to Rodgers’ hands once Indianapolis posts a two-score stretch. That’s where the volatility spikes and the over breathes.

I hear the Steelers-side cases. Noise hurts snap timing, and Tomlin’s groups often punch back after public drubbings. There’s also a human-nature angle with Indianapolis glancing at passports and Berlin logistics. Still, the math and the matchups steer the call. Indianapolis has scored at least twenty in every game and cleared thirty in four straight, and Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks last by yards allowed. Pair that with Rodgers’ efficiency and the crowd’s live-wire shove, and the total owns more paths than the side. I do like Steelers with the points more than the Colts, however.

I’m on the over 50.5, decisive and grounded in efficiency differentials, coverage attrition, and environment clarity. The spread leans Colts on the board and Steelers in my gut. But the stronger edge rides climate, cadence, and explosives that cut both ways.

Projected score: Colts 30, Steelers 27.

Best bet: Steelers vs. Colts o50.5 total points (-120)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

For a prop lean, Jonathan Taylor 120+ rushing yards (+210) is the swing. The runway aligns with Pittsburgh’s left-side leak: 4.7 YPC allowed and 14.4% explosive rate to that edge. Taylor has averaged 6.7 per carry on designed left runs, with 17 of his 23 explosives there. Eleven personnel and condensed splits will drag safeties wide, then hammer that gap with duo and counter. Acrisure’s clean weather and Wrolstad’s crew keep the clock moving and drives extended. Indianapolis’ 26.75 implied total projects sustained red-zone trips and 20–24 carries. At 5.9 per tote, 20 carries clear this number with breathing room. The Steelers’ illness scratches and safety shuffle fray fit-and-fill, especially on seams and cutbacks. Jones’ 71.2% rhythm forces lighter boxes, so linebackers hesitate a beat. I’ll fire 120+ at +210, ladder-friendly, tied to a script that leans left and leans heavy.

Best prop lean: Jonathan Taylor 120+ rushing yards (+210)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!