Photo: Reunion. License here.
This afternoon the Cincinnati Reds will be looking to pick up a series win after grabbing a victory in two of the first three games of this series. The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to salvage a split after their win last night in a rain-filled mess of a game. First pitch today is scheduled for 1:40pm ET.
Starting LineupsStarting Pitchers
Chase Burns
On June 27th we saw Burns have one of his worst starts of the year. He allowed five runs to Pittsburgh in a game the Reds ultimately won. It was just the second time all season he had allowed more than two runs in a game. Since then he’s allowed six earned runs in four starts and looked better, though he has struggled with his walks during that time. In his two starts before the one in June against the Pirates he allowed four hits in 12.0 shutout innings.
Neither lefties no righties hit particularly well against Burns, but right-handed hitters don’t hit at all. Left-handed hitters are better across the board and are at least serviceable when facing him and show solid power in the rare case when they do get a hit.
Splits
SplitPAH2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGRHH16831802844.194.232.281LHH2875492113384.215.304.398
Pitch Usage
4-seamSliderChangeVelo97.890.490.1Usage57%38%6%
Mitch Keller
It’s been an inconsistent season for Keller. His ERA was 3.64 after 11 starts. Then over his next eight start it was 7.62 as he allowed 52 hits in 39.0 innings and gave up nine homers. Since the All-Star break he’s made two starts and allowed just two runs in 10.1 innings. He was dominant in his first start against Cincinnati back on May 1st, giving up one run in 7.0 innings. But at the end of June the Reds scored four runs against him in 6.0 innings. Pittsburgh won both of those games.
The splits against Keller are big. Right-handed hitters walk at a good rate against him, and they make plenty of contact. But that contact has led to nothing in terms of hits or power output. Lefties hit for a high average and they show good power against him.
Splits
SplitPAH2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGRHH172305021735.196.285.268LHH31581192112152.283.343.479
Pitch Usage
4-sm2-smCutterCurveSliderSplitVelo93.492.489.677.883.888.8Usage31%18%8%9%25%9%When and WhereGame time: 1:40pm ETWhere: Great American Ball ParkWatch: Reds MLB Channel, Reds.tv (in-market), MLB.tv (out of market).Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)Forecast: 75°, cloudy, 15% chance of rainNews and Notes
Rehabbing Reds
Yesterday saw Brandon Williamson make a rehab start with Double-A Chattanooga where he threw two hitless innings but allowed a run because he walked two batters and hit another one. Next week he’ll move up to Triple-A to continue his rehab. He’ll be joined there by Nick Lodolo, who will be making his first rehab start since his blister issues popped up again.
Division StandingsTeamWLGBPlayoff OddsMilwaukee69410.099.9%Chicago63486.593.0%Pittsburgh565614.027.7%St. Louis545715.56.0%Cincinnati525817.01.5%Playoff Odds via Fangraphs About The Author