Photo Kevin Barrett

Mathematically, the Philadelphia Union are not yet eliminated from the Leagues Cup.

But only the top four MLS teams qualify, and Philadelphia cannot finish any higher than fourth among the MLS’s qualifiers. And as far as we can discern, their chances hang by the slenderest possible of threads.

Only if Austin and Chicago both lose, is it mathematically possible for the Union to advance to the fourth MLS qualification place. If either Austin or Chicago secure any points tonight, the Union are eliminated. 

But the Union tap off in the eastern time zone well before those two future-determining central time zone matches.

The details

These are the four MLS teams with mathematically surviving, similar, slender, advancement chances. Their first tiebreaker would be goal difference, so we rank them on it.

Team

Points
Goal difference
Third opponent, venue, tap-off time

Charlotte
6 pts
+4

Has finished play

Portland

3 pts
+1
Tijuana
Portland
10:30 PM

Philadelphia*
3 pts
+1
Santos Laguna
Philadelphia

7:00 PM

New York City*

3 pts
+1
Necaxa
New York

7:30 PM

Philadelphia precedes NYC currently in the Fair Play disciplinary table -5 to -9.

The determining matches

In the matches crucial to Philadelphia’s advancement:

Austin plays Club America In Austin at 8:30 PM ET. Club America must win to be certain advancing on the Liga MX side of the tournament.
Chicago plays Cruz Azul In Chicago at 9:00 PM ET. Cruz Azul will advance with any points

If Chicago and Cruz Azul were deliberately to play for a draw in regulation, each thus securing a point, both would advance and Philadelphia, together with its one and two potential six-point colleagues, would be eliminated. 

But Philadelphia and New York City start play well before the tap off in Chicago, so they would not know beforehand if they were eliminated by such collusive result manipulation. 

Our best guess

From one datum unearthed by the indefatigable Jillian Allmoney of The One Team We Agree On, #TOTWAG, we expect Richter’s lineup and bench choices to emphasize preparation for NYC FC in the Bronx on Sunday. Allmoney has indicated to PSP colleague Alex Hayden that previously rehabilitating striker Stas Korzeniowski will be available for selection against Santos Laguna

We guess that Richter thinks the minuscule chance of Leagues Cup advancement is less important than doing everything possible to secure a win against NYC FC and its consequent possibility of moving up the eastern conference table towards the playoff line.

Six of Richter’s top 16 will start and five of those will play 60 minutes or less. The other five starters will be deep reserves, and the bench could easily see the two Union II players since they are rostered to the Leagues Cup. We predict the following game day roster, starters in bold.

1
GK
Rick

2
LB
Wagner

3
LCB
Pierre

4
RCB
Martinez

5
RB
Westfield

6
DM
Bueno

7
DM
Rafanello

8
AM
Bender

9
AM
Q Sullivan

10
S
Anello

11
S
Alladoh

12
S
Jakupovic

13
S
Korzeniowski

14
S
Damiani

15
AM
C Sullivan

16
AM
LeBlanc

17
AM
Bedoya

18
DM
Jean Jacques

19
DM
Lukic

20
CB
Harriel

21
OB
Uzcategui

22
GK
Marks

23
GK
Blake

Not dressed: Japhet Sery, Milan Iloski, Indiana Vassilev