HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHP) — Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission is warning Pennsylvanians that rapid data center development could impact the reliability of energy across the commonwealth in coming years.

The PUC released Monday an independent analysis from Synapse Energy Economics, which examined whether enough electric resources will be available to reliably serve customers as demand—largely connected to data center development—continues to grow.

The analysis found that the regional power grid, operated by PJM, would fail to meet the company’s own reliability standards from 2027 through 2030, according to the PUC.

“Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads,” said PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank. “Data center development brings significant opportunities, but that growth cannot come at the expense of the families and businesses that already depend on reliable and affordable electric service. This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable. We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand.”

The PUC urged PJM to take additional action, as it predicts the demand for energy will outpace the supply, making service more unreliable for customers. The analysis found that based on the current environment, reliability risk by 2030 would be nearly six times PJM’s standard.

“In the study’s severe scenario, projected new data center demand across PJM between 2029 and 2030 alone exceeds the current annual electricity demand of the entire Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” the PUC wrote in a press release.

The PUC said it is taking several measures to address the growing demand.

In May, the PUC established a model large-load tariff designed to ensure that customers requiring 50 megawatts or more of electricity bear the costs they add to the electric system rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers.The Commission is also implementing Act 45 of 2025, which provides an additional layer of accountability for Pennsylvania utility load forecasts submitted to PJM – an increasingly important “double check” as data center proposals drive projections of future electricity demand.

Click here to read more about how the PUC is addressed the impacts of data centers.

In a statement, PJM said it agrees that electricity demand, primarily driven by data centers, continues to grow faster than the ability to build new power sources, “potentially compromising reliability of the system over the next five years while also contributing to increased electricity costs.”

“PJM has taken a number of actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases associated with data center development,” wrote Jeff Shields, PJM’s senior manager of external communications.

PJM also pointed to actions Pennsylvania has taken to set “common-sense” rules for data center development and remove barriers for new energy resources, along with establishing “a price cap and floor on our capacity markets to protect both consumers and suppliers from market volatility.”

“PJM believes these combined, focused efforts can preserve reliable electrical service in the near and long term without unfairly burdening regular ratepayers,” Shields wrote.

READ MORE | PA governor signs executive order on AI data centers: ‘Nation’s strictest guardrails’

Previously, on Aug. 13, PJM said it had filed an Interim Resource Adequacy Service proposal to address concerns that electricity demand is growing faster than new power supplies.

“To help protect residential and existing customers from power outages during severe heat or cold or other extreme conditions, Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS) would provide a path for data centers and other Large Load customers to connect to the grid without sacrificing reliable electrical service for the rest of the system,” according to a hand-out from PJM.

Click here to learn more about PJM’s proposal.

CBS 21 has also reached out to PJM for comment on the PUC’s concerns.