Get ready for a blast of cold air with an early season arctic outbreak, with probably the coldest sustained chill since February.

For Berks County and the rest of eastern Pennsylvania it is more of a glancing blow compared to locations in the Great Plains, Tennessee Valley and even the deep South.

Showers are likely Sunday night into early Monday, then expect much colder conditions later Monday with a high in the mid-40s, low clouds and a biting sustained northwest wind in the teens, according to AccuWeather.

Tuesday is likely to be the coldest day of the week with a morning flurry, then a high in the low 40s, with the wind shifting from northwest to west and still strong, AccuWeather says.

For the rest of the workweek, there will likely be a moderating trend with highs near 50 each day, but a few degrees colder on Saturday with cloudy and gloomy conditions.

The only day the morning low is expected to get below freezing is Tuesday with a low in the upper 20s. That won’t be the first subfreezing temperature for Berks this fall, since the official low at Reading Regional Airport on Friday was 30 degrees.

That was a little later than average in Berks. There have been 16 years that the first freezing temperature for fall was Nov. 10 or later, with the latest date for a first freeze of Nov. 25, 1963.

A dip in the jet stream will take the arctic outbreak, moderating as it goes, to the Gulf Coast, with freeze and frost warning across the deep South from Texas to Georgia from Monday through Wednesday.

For example, in Montgomery, Ala., the Tuesday low is expected to be below freezing, a rude awakening for the first half of November that far south.

October in Berks

Looking back at last month’s weather, mostly seasonable cool and dry conditions dominated, with numerous days of sparkling sunshine.

The monthly analysis by Jeffrey R. Stoudt, who is a retired meteorologist, a Berks weather historian who has helped shape the official database for the county, and founder of the Berks Area Rainfall Networks, a group now in its 43rd year:

“A warm period from 4th to 7th inclusive warmed to the 80s, highest 85 on the 5th, after seasonably cool early mornings in the low 50s. However, the last day of this stretch had a low of 63, the warmest daily low of the month. This still could be considered summer’s last hurrah, and was a typical late-season warm spell.

“Fair weather was dominant and was interrupted by 11 days with measurable rain, mostly meager amounts. Only three events brought moderate or heavy rain during storms that spanned the 7th-8th, 13th-14th and 29-30th. The greatest of which was the last of these when 1 to 2 inches was widespread, which included 0.99 inches at (the airport), the greatest contributor to an official final total of 2.69.

“There were no date precipitation records. Most October rain totals in Berks began with a 3, but ranged between 2.4 and 4.6 inches.”

The October deficit of 1.11 inches, and just 0.10 inch so far in November at the airport, has left the annual total there through Saturday at 39.61 inches, just 0.12 above normal.

Reading Regional is one of only two airports in the coverage area of the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, N.J., to have its head above water, and barely. Other locations, such as Allentown; Mount Pocono; Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del., have significant deficits.

The larger picture of Berks as computed by a division of the weather service shows a slight deficit overall.

On the temperature end, the early warm days in October created a temperature surplus that was only eroded slightly through the rest of the month. The monthly average temperature of 56.9 degrees was 1.7 above normal.

“A few daily lows in the low- or mid-30s with scattered frosts late in the month is typical,” Stoudt said. “…  Low-down areas were most susceptible to freezing because cold air drains to low-lying areas during clear nights with little wind, which were several this October. … temperature ranges are usually large, often over 30 degrees, on such days.

“A few daily high temperatures stayed below 60, coolest 58 on four different days, is rather mild. Most Octobers bring one or more daily highs in low 50s or even cooler. There were no date record temperatures.”

Berks County October weather

Temperature: 56.9 degrees

Normal: 55.2 degrees

Precipitation: 2.69 inches

Normal: 3.80 inches

Records: None

Source: National Weather Service

Rainfall totals from the Berks Area Rainfall Networks:

• Strausstown, 4.61

• Auburn, 4.52

• Bernville, 4.52

• Mohnton, 4.07

• Shartlesville, 3.99

• Wernersville, 3.93

• Henningsville, 3.88

• Knauers, 3.78

• Lincoln Park, 3.77

• Cornwall Terrace, 3.73

• Topton, 3.72

• Wyomissing, 3.72

• Reading E, 3.65

• Bechtelsville, 3.62

• Shillington, 3.60

• West Reading, 3.50

• Dryville, 3.48

• Birdsboro, 3.44

• Reiffton, 3.44

• Womelsdorf, 3.40

• Cacoosing, 3.35

• Mohrsville SW, 3.34

• Morgantown, 3.30

• Vinemont, 3.30

• New Morgan, 3.26

• Boyertown, 3.25

• Cumru Township building, 3.15

• Lobachsville, 3.15

• Boyers Junction, 3.07

• Muhlenberg Park, 3.07

• Bechtelsville NW, 3.04

• Oley Furnace, 2.94

• Quaker Hill, 2.94

• Greenfields, 2.90

• Mohrsville, 2.86

• Oley, 2.75

• Hamburg, 2.56

• Elverson NE, 2.49