New polls show a key Pennsylvania state Senate race in a virtual dead heat and a Democrat narrowly leading in a Lehigh Valley-area state House race — contests that could determine which party controls the state legislature.
One of the polls by the nonprofit State Navigate shows Democrat Mark Pinsley and Republican incumbent Jarrett Coleman running nearly even in the state Senate 16th District. In the poll , 47% of respondents said they planned to vote for Pinsley, Lehigh County’s controller, while 46% chose Coleman and 7% were still undecided.
State Navigate surveyed 1,031 likely voters in the district, which covers western Lehigh County and upper Bucks County, from Sept. 18-20. The results fall well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
“I am not surprised by the recent polling numbers in the 16th District,” Pinsley said. “Voters are clearly rejecting the status quo and business-as-usual politics. They want to elect leaders who will work for the people, not the powerful.”
Coleman did not immediately return a message seeking comment.
“I am not taking anything for granted,” Pinsley said. “The poll that matters most is the one on Nov. 3. I will keep meeting voters where they are, learning their concerns, and sharing how I plan to work for them in the state Senate.”
In a separate State Navigate poll of the 187th House District, Democratic challenger Rachel Cuevas received 47% of support to Republican Rep. Gary Day’s 44%, with 9% undecided. The poll, taken between Sept. 18-20, surveyed 307 likely voters in the district. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.6 points.
“We’re a campaign based on commonsense ideas and kitchen table issues, and this poll shows that our message is resonating with voters,” said Cuevas, a human resources professional who lives in Alburtis.
Cuevas said her campaign is focused on affordability, which includes bringing down property taxes and making healthcare affordable and accessible.
“The results today are a product of the work we’ve done to get here — meeting people where they’re at, whether they’re Republicans, independents or Democrats, and showing them that I’ll be a representative that works for the people,” she said. “Lehigh County is ready for change, and we’re ready for someone with a fresh outlook on the future rather than the entrenched politicians we’ve had here for decades.”
Day did not immediately return an email seeking comment. He represented the region for 14 years, in 2008-22, before losing to Ryan Mackenzie when their districts were redrawn after the 2020 census. He won the seat again when Mackenzie ran successfully for Congress in 2024.
His website says he is committed to addressing the priorities of his constituents, including promoting economic growth, combating inflation, ensuring children’s safety in schools, and protecting the freedoms of every resident.
In the 16th District poll, State Navigate found Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro leads Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity 57%-37% in the gubernatorial race. Respondents gave Shapiro a 58% favorable job performance rating.
Shapiro had the same 20-point lead in the 187th District poll, 56%-36%.
As in other polls, disapproval of President Donald Trump may be dragging down other members of his party. Trump’s approval ratings were underwater in both districts: 58% strongly or somewhat disapprove of his job performance compared with 40% strongly or somewhat approving in the 16th District. In the 187th, 62% disapprove and 36% approve.