Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

SoFi settles under the roof with Los Angeles 6–3 chasing AFC position and Pittsburgh 5–3 jostling for January leverage. The division math bites now: the Chargers press for West control while the Steelers stalk North ground and tiebreakers. Jim Harbaugh’s first season has hardened identity and raised the floor in money spots. Mike Tomlin arrives with Aaron Rodgers and a defense that travels, aiming for a résumé win under lights. Third downs and red-zone choices will echo in the standings on Monday morning. One clean four-minute drive could swing seeding and recalibrate both conference races. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 10’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The spine favors Los Angeles on money downs. The Chargers’ offense converts 49.21% on third down, a league-leading engine that sustains drives. Their red-zone defense allows touchdowns on 46.43%, a top-tier clamp that trades sevens for threes. Team efficiency sits balanced: offense at +0.03 EPA/play with a 46.19% success rate, defense allowing −0.03 EPA/play with 40.60% success allowed. The pass game holds at +0.04 EPA/dropback with 67.78% completions and 2,434 passing yards. On the other sideline, Pittsburgh’s offense profiles at +0.03 EPA/play with a 42.92% success rate and +0.07 EPA/dropback, efficient but less steady between the 20s. Each defense plays its part: Los Angeles squeezes explosives with heavy zone and ranks third at 5.60 yards per coverage snap allowed, plus sixth by first-down-plus-TD rate at 30.6%. Those are possession levers that travel into the fourth quarter.

Quarterback Justin Herbert has absorbed 28 sacks and 155 total pressures, with the Chargers sitting 31% in pressure rate allowed. The last three games elevated heat to 47% of his dropbacks, the kind of tide that flips calls. Pittsburgh’s front arrives with a 53.6% pass-rush win rate and 32 sacks, a wave fueled by edge rusher T.J. Watt at an 82.1 grade, and edge rusher Nick Herbig at 90.4. That collision is the loudest frequency in the building. The Chargers will counter with tempo, motion, and condensed splits to shave time-to-throw and deny free runs. They need the ball out under two-point-six seconds on early downs to normalize pressure and reassert third-down rhythm.

The coverage dialogue shapes targets. Pittsburgh plays man on 33.3% and zone on 62.6%, toggling disguise late to bait throws. Wide receiver Keenan Allen punishes zone with 183 routes, 35 catches, a 25.7% target rate, and 0.53 fantasy points per route. Against man, he still commands attention with a 29.5% target rate across 88 routes. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston leads Chargers wideouts versus man at 0.50 points per route with a 12-for-152 line on 91 routes and an 18.7% target rate. Wide receiver Ladd McConkey sits at 15-for-208 against man with a 25.0% target rate and supplies formation flexibility that distorts leverage. Those splits let Los Angeles script choice: force zone with stacks, punish man with Johnston’s vertical isolation, and keep Allen humming in the seams when safeties widen.

Pittsburgh’s case is real and rests on trench truth and middle-field poise. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers guides a passing ledger with 68.98% completions and 17 touchdowns, and he rarely wastes snaps. Wide receiver George Pickens leads the Steelers versus zone with 246 routes, 35-for-528, a 19.1% target rate, and 0.48 points per route. Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson trail in volume, but they threaten space when linebackers turn their hips. The run game must give Rodgers second-and-manageable; Los Angeles has allowed 987 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns. That is the soft seam if Pittsburgh stacks positive scripts. The counterweight lives where it started: Los Angeles is one of the league’s most zone-heavy defenses at 81.2% with top-six efficiency on the two stickiest coverage measures. They force completion, rally, and squeeze explosives, then harden in the low red.

Injury and personnel nuance tilts the board. Tackle Joe Alt is out for the season, and Los Angeles patched with tackle Trevor Penning, who grades at 50.4, while the interior holds near a 65.7 composite. That exterior stress meets Pittsburgh’s four-man heat without sacrificing coverage layers. Yet the Chargers still keep their pass game above water by sequencing. Herbert’s group leans pistol looks, gap runs to punish light boxes, and layered play-action that tempts safeties into muddy tackling angles. If Los Angeles keeps Herbert clean on the first read and hits a 55%-plus success rate on throws under ten yards, the third-down edge stays intact.

Steelers vs. Chargers pick, best bet

The Chargers land as small home favorites at −3 because third-down superiority and red-zone defense are stable edges. Pittsburgh stays live because the protection mismatch produces negative plays and because their red-zone defense sits in the low-50s, also trading touchdowns for kicks. The scoring spine points downward: Chargers red-zone offense hovers near 50% while both defenses guard the paint, and sacks turn long drives into long field goals. If this game lives on twelve to fourteen red-zone snaps and five or six field-goal attempts, the total drifts under expectation.

I expect the script to grind and then pop in bursts. Los Angeles should open with quick game, jet motion, and bunch releases to manufacture free access and suppress Watt’s runway. The Chargers will mix duo into light boxes just enough to earn play-action, then hit Allen on glance and crossover layers when safeties widen. Pittsburgh should lean duo and counter to keep second downs short, then use play-action crossers and choice routes to tilt hook defenders. Pickens will test the outside shoulder when shells condense, but Rodgers will cash the underneath when Los Angeles sits patient. The middle eight should decide posture: win that stretch by three points and you likely own the final possession.

The counterargument says Pittsburgh flips this by battering protection and stealing a short field. That path is credible because 53.6% pass-rush wins travel, and 32 sacks are not an accident. The refutation points back to structural edges. The Chargers’ defense ranks third by yards per coverage snap and sixth by first-down-plus-TD rate allowed, which limits explosive conversions. Their offense survives with design: 49.21% third-down conversions stretch possessions, and Herbert’s accuracy sustains even when the run game is a passenger. If the giveaways stay even, those levers usually matter more than one pressure mismatch.

Third-down excellence and red-zone clamps usually bleed clock and compress variance, and both defenses are built for that exact trade. The numbers point to a chess match of sustained drives that die inside the fifteen and a scoreboard that moves in threes. I’m on the total, not the side. Primetime unders were a pitfall in the first bit of the season. Maybe not so much anymore. At 44.5, I’m say we take the gamble.

Final: Chargers 23, Steelers 20.

Best bet: Chargers vs. Steelers u44.5 total points (-105)

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For a prop lean, over 19.5 yards (−110) on Quentin Johnston’s longest reception fits the script. He leads Chargers wideouts versus man at 0.50 points per route with 12 for 152 on 91 routes. That’s 12.7 yards per catch against single coverage, and Pittsburgh plays man on 33.3% of snaps. Their zone sits at 62.6%, which nudges Los Angeles to hunt declared man on money downs. Los Angeles sustains 49.21% on third down, manufacturing extra shots for Johnston’s boundary isolation. Pittsburgh allows 16.1 receiver catches per game, so volume feeds the explosive chance. Even with a 53.6% pass-rush win rate, one clean release plus layered play-action can spring it. I expect one target to clear 19.5 once Justin Herbert forces single-high rotations.

Best prop lean: Quentin Johnston longest reception o19.5 yards (-110)

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