Less than two weeks from Election Day, a new poll shows Democrats are in a relatively strong political position.
A Franklin & Marshall College poll released today finds President Donald Trump’s approval rating is among the lowest of any recent chief executive, support for Democrats in the race for control of Congress is rising and Gov. Josh Shapiro has a significant lead in his bid for reelection.
The poll shows 70% of registered voters in Pennsylvania disapprove of Trump’s job performance while just 29% approve — a sizable decline since an October 2025 poll when his approval rating was 41%.
AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein
President Donald Trump (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at the Lancaster college, warned that if Trump’s net approval ratings don’t rise his party will enter the midterms with a lower rating than any of his predecessors. That includes his rating entering the midterms in 2018, when Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House of Representatives.
The survey finds nearly 60% of registered voters believe the president’s policies have hurt more than helped them personally. While 75% of Republicans think policies have helped them, only 7% of Democratic and 31% of independent voters believe that.
But, Yost said, there are some Republicans who may choose not to cast a ballot because of those policies. Among the 20% of Republicans who say his policies have hurt them personally, only 2 in 5 said they are likely to vote.
The poll also finds Democrats have a sizable advantage on being able to deal with voters’ greatest concern — the economy. Registered voters said they trust Democrats over Republicans on that issue by 46% to 21%.
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That could be a contributing factor as to why Democrats hold a 7-point lead among registered voters and 14-point lead among likely voters in their preferences for House races on a generic ballot that does not cite specific candidates.
But, Yost said, the outcome of individual races will depend on who turns out to vote.
The poll finds about 85% of registered voters say they are certain to vote in the midterms, although only about half say they are very interested in the races. Democrats currently hold the turnout advantage over Republicans, 63% to 55%.
Yost said the number of respondents who said they were likely to vote suggests turnout may be a bit lower than the two most recent midterms elections.
He said the current pool of likely voters includes 13% of registered voters who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election. These voters are overwhelmingly supporting Democratic candidates for governor and Congress.
The gubernatorial race
Yost said that unlike Trump, Shapiro’s job approval ratings are holding up pretty well considering how much pessimism exists among voters.
The poll shows 44% of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of his job performance while 48% have an unfavorable view — consistent with his approval ratings in August.
Gov. Josh Shapiro, left, and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. (Commonwealth Media Services)
The survey also finds Shapiro maintains a significant lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. He leads the state treasurer 54% to 33% among registered voters and 59% to 36% among likely voters in the race for governor.
Yost said Shapiro’s advantage in the gubernatorial race is a result of the general positive views that voters have of him and the relative anonymity of his Republican challenger, noting that 42% of voters say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
How the poll was conducted
Included in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll is a detailed explanation of how the survey was conducted:
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted Oct. 7 through 18. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.
The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 808 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 340 Democrats, 331 Republicans and 137 independents.
The sample of registered voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference.
Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography and party registration) using an algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics among state voters. Estimates for age, geography and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data.
The sample error for this survey is 4.1 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is 5.6 percentage points for the likely voter sample.