As the National Retail Federation predicts sales during November and December will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024, both industry experts and small-business owners expressed optimism about the holiday shopping season.
Consumers are projected to spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion — which would surpass the $976.1 billion spent last year, according to the NRF’s annual holiday forecast.
The forecast considers various economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
Additionally, NRF’s latest holiday survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, which is separate from the holiday sales forecast, found consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items — the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history, according to the organization.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
A record 186.9 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year — topping last year’s previous record of 183.4 million — according to the consumer survey.
Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving — remains the most popular day to shop as 130.4 million plan to make purchases that day, followed by 73.9 million on Cyber Monday (Dec. 1), according to the survey.
Clothing and accessories lead the list of most popular gift items at 50%, followed by gift cards (43%) and toys (32%), the survey found.
Liz Baldi, business development director for Scranton Tomorrow, a nonprofit community and economic development organization, feels more shoppers seem to be turning to local stores.
“I think the community recognizes the importance of having small-business owners and the quality products they offer,” she said. “It’s different than what you get at a big-box store. They’re unique gifts, they’re more personalized gifts, and a lot of the time they are one-of-a-kind items. There is also that personal aspect of going into a small business where a lot of the times you know the business owner — they’re our friends, our neighbors, our community members. It’s a more personal feel when you get to go in and tangibly touch the items, and pick things out.”
Baldi noted that many smaller retailers depend on strong holiday sales to both continue operations and potentially grow their shops.
“Oftentimes, they rely on the revenue from holiday shopping alone to see what they can do next,” she said. “Can they retain employees? Can they hire new staff? It also determines if they can make the business expansion that they’ve been working on for years a reality. It’s the busiest time of the year for them, and the time of year they count on most.”
More than 55 small-business owners registered for Small Business Saturday (Nov. 29) this year, the highest number ever in downtown Scranton, Baldi said.
“It’s encouraging for us to see that the small-business owners see the value in the events we put on and that they would like to participate,” she said. “It also signifies the growth that the downtown has seen.”
The decision to expand hours leading up to Christmas may also provide a boost for small businesses downtown, Baldi said.
Specifically, on Dec. 11, stores, bars and eateries will extend their hours to be open from 5 to 9 p.m., and free parking will be available, she added. Many shops will also begin opening each Sunday, starting Dec. 7.
“They want to make themselves easy to get to, they want it to be an enjoyable experience, and they offer discounts,” Baldi said. “I think our community sees what they’re doing and the effort they’re putting in, they appreciate it and they’re more prone to shopping small.”
A selection of Christmas merchandise available for purchase at Over the Moon on North Washington Avenue in downtown Scranton on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025. (ROBERT TOMKAVAGE/STAFF PHOTO)
Baby merchandise on display at Over the Moon on North Washington Avenue in downtown Scranton on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025. (ROBERT TOMKAVAGE/STAFF PHOTO)
A selection of picture frames and holiday merchandise for sale at Over the Moon on North Washington Avenue in downtown Scranton on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025. (ROBERT TOMKAVAGE/STAFF PHOTO)
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A selection of Christmas merchandise available for purchase at Over the Moon on North Washington Avenue in downtown Scranton on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025. (ROBERT TOMKAVAGE/STAFF PHOTO)
Kathi Whitney Davis, owner of Over the Moon, 123 N. Washington Ave. in Scranton, a gift store specializing in registry services for wedding and baby showers, stressed that having a profitable end to the year is vital for her business.
“It’s very important, and typically the fourth quarter is our strongest,” she said. “We’re anticipating a strong shopping season.”
Davis, who has owned the store for eight years, said she’s added much more inventory over time to appease different types of customers.
“I tried to make it so that there is something here for everyone,” she said.
Olivia Bennington, manager of the Giving Tree Wellness Center, 311 Penn Ave. in Scranton, expressed gratitude for the shoppers who regularly support local businesses.
“I think shopping small is definitely important, especially in downtown Scranton,” she said. “I’ve seen a lot of improvements in the last few years and that has mainly happened, in my opinion, from the support of our customers. I think it’s important to shop small during the holidays, too, because everything is a little more personal. There is more of a selection that you can tailor toward a specific person whereas shopping with a big corporation, everything is mass produced. It’s a little less from the heart.”
Bennington believes the Giving Tree benefits from customers looking to improve their overall well-being and those purchasing similar services for others.
“During the holidays, we sell a lot of massage packages,” she said. “I think especially in the new year, people are looking to better themselves mentally and physically. We really uplift people from beauty all the way to mental health. The rush starts right after Thanksgiving, and we have different Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday deals.”
Personalized silverplate dog and cat ornaments are available for $20 at Fly Me Home in Pittston. (COURTESY FLY ME HOME)
A cardinal ornament, pressed from a vintage silverplate tray, is available for $10 at Fly Me Home in Pittston. (COURTESY FLY ME HOME)
Wheat penny bracelets, sizes small to extra large, are available for $21 at Fly Me Home in Pittston. (COURTESY FLY ME HOME)
Fly Me Home, a gift shop in Pittston, specializes in upcycled silverware accessories, ornaments, mosaics, pottery, candles and more. (Courtesy Fly Me Home)
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Personalized silverplate dog and cat ornaments are available for $20 at Fly Me Home in Pittston. (COURTESY FLY ME HOME)
Dave Guzik — who opened Fly Me Home, a gift shop featuring upcycled accessories and home decor, pottery, candles and more in Hughestown, just outside Pittston, with his wife, Sue, 13 years ago — estimates the store takes in at least 25% of its overall business for the year from Thanksgiving to Christmas.
“Small Business Saturday is our biggest day of the year,” he said.
Amid uncertain financial times, sales have remained steady at Fly Me Home, 299 Parsonage St., Guzik said.
“I know the economy is a little tougher now, but it really seems like we’re pretty much on pace for what we’ve done the last few years,” he said.
Guzik thinks the combination of handmade products and an inviting decor brings people into the small business.
“I make all my stuff out of silverware — everything from jewelry to bracelets to bookmarks — and my wife does stained-glass mosaics and mixed media pieces,” he said. “The shop is so cute and nice. Some people just like coming in and looking around.”
The influx of new retailers in the Pittston area also attracts a variety of customers to the region, Guzik said.
“We get a lot of people that make their rounds,” he said. “There have been a lot of shops popping up. You think it’s competition, but it’s actually helpful. We get people from an hour or two hours away that come because it’s a destination.”