Winter officially begins at the end of December, and soon, plenty of Philadelphians could be shoveling snow off their cars and sidewalks. But how much snow will the Delaware Valley get in 2025-26?

How the NEXT Weather Team projects winter snowfall forecast

As we head into winter, many factors come into play when predicting snowfall totals. Here’s what we look at, and what it means for Philadelphia this season.

Arctic and North Atlantic Winds: These influence cold air movement into our regionExisting Snowpack in Northern Latitudes: Current conditions compared to historical normsClimate Prediction Center Probabilities: Long-range outlooks for temperature and precipitationLocal Climatology and 30-Year Normals: Historical averages help set expectations

But one of the heaviest influences on our overall weather patterns in the United States has to do with the temperatures of the ocean water in the equatorial Pacific.

El Niño: Warmer waters typically bring wetter conditions.La Niña: Cooler waters often lead to drier, colder patterns.Neutral: Near-average temperatures mean less predictable impacts.

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CBS News Philadelphia

This winter will start in the La Niña pattern but transition to a more neutral phase through the second half of winter into early next year. 

Philadelphia’s snowfall normals

The “normals” for any given area in our region are based on a 30-year average, updated every 10 years.

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CBS News Philadelphia

Currently, we use data from 1991–2020, giving us here in Philadelphia an average annual snowfall of 23.1 inches, broken down as follows:

November – 0.2 of an inchDecember – 3.5 inchesJanuary – 7.1 inchesFebruary – 8.4 inchesMarch – 3.6 inches        April – 0.3 of an inchHow much snow did the Philadelphia region get last winter?

Last season, we had a total of just 8.1 inches: 

November – traceDecember – 0.3 of an inchJanuary – 4.6 inchesFebruary – 3.2 inchesMarch – none      April – trace

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CBS News Philadelphia

Significantly below normal, but much higher than just seasons prior when the Philadelphia area only recorded 0.3 inches of snow for the entire 2022–2023 season, tying for the second least ever recorded (also in 2019–2020), with the driest being the 1972–1973 season when only a trace of snow officially fell.  

How much snow will Philadelphia get this winter? 

To come up with a range, the NEXT Weather team takes all of this data, compares it to trends, years past, similar climate times, etc., and we’ve come up with our winter weather snow forecast of 18–24 inches for the season, so at or slightly below normal snowfall, with most coming down early in 2026.

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CBS News Philadelphia

Keep in mind that all snow isn’t created equal. Sometimes it’s a wet, heavy snow, while other times it’s light and fluffy with very little moisture content.

During these times, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere can be significantly less to produce higher totals.

Also, there is a big difference between having many light snows of 1–2 inches over and over versus two major storm systems, each dumping 10 inches. Both produce the same annual totals but have very different impacts.

Stay connected

As always, stay with the NEXT Weather Team for continual updates as we move closer and closer to winter.