“The thing that gives us life and hope and opportunity is Donald John Trump.”
Coming from a Democrat, that may sound odd, but for Democratic strategist T.J. Rooney, it’s the key to winning back Pennsylvania congressional seats.
“Our house is still in disorder. Our tide is rising, and it’s because of one person: Donald Trump,” Rooney said, referring to how Democrats nationwide have performed on a Trump-free ballot.
In the last election, Democrats saw surges nationwide, even taking local seats in deep-red states for the first time in decades.
For the 2026 midterms, a trio of national nonpartisan political forecasters have Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District of Brian Fitzpatrick; the 7th, with Ryan Mackenzie; Scranton’s 8th, Rob Bresnahan; and the 10th, Scott Perry in Harrisburg, all in play to be flipped.
“I think the seventh is more vulnerable because Ryan Mackenzie is a first-term member of Congress. When you are in your first term running for your second, that is when you are the most vulnerable,” said Republican strategist Sam Chen.
In the 8th District, Chen added that for Republicans to stay, they should keep the message local.
“Speak to the issues that your district is having. Ignore the national kind of hype, hyped-up issues,” he stressed.
Northampton County Republican Committee head Glenn Geissinger says the lack of GOP enthusiasm in this past election was a wake-up call for the party.
He does think the governor’s race could change that in 2026, bringing out more Republicans who recently stayed home.
However, Chen says that may not make up for President Trump not being on the ballot.
“The president draws all the attention, the political landscape and the news. So because he’s in office, you’re going to have a higher number of Democrats come out, and because he’s not on the ballot, you’re going to have fewer Republicans coming out,” he said of past elections.