Eagles (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (11-4), Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Point spread/ML – Eagles +1.5/-112 Bills -1.5/-108
Total points (O/U) – 44.5
Analysis: Surprisingly, this game will be played above freezing, and as a result, the precipitation (50% chance) will be rain. The Bills have the 4th-ranked offense, and 11th-ranked defense, 2nd-best against the pass. But that D has betrayed them of late, allowing 85 points in their last 3, albeit all wins.
The Eagles’ D is starting to really find a groove, allowing 40 points over their last 3. The line opened at Bills -2.5 and quickly moved a point in the Eagles’ direction.
Picks: OVER 44.5 points
Passing Props (O/U)
Jalen Hurts – 189.5 yards, 1.5 passing TD (+154/-210), 16.5 completions, 25.5 attempts
Josh Allen – 195.5 yards, 1.5 passing TD (+146/-198), 18.5 completions, 27.5 attempts
Analysis: Hurts has thrown 2+ TD passes in 3/L4, just missed the number in his last two, only because the Eagles stopped throwing the ball with a big lead. They will likely lean on him a bit more Sunday. Allen has slumped of late, averaging 174.3 ypg over his last 4. Some of that is because the run game has been working for them, but those numbers raise eyebrows. He is also dealing with a foot injury, but he should be ready to go.
Picks: Hurts OVER yards, OVER attempts, OVER completions; Allen OVER yards
Rushing Props (O/U)
James Cook – 87.5 yards, 19.5 attempts
Saquon Barkley – 81.5 yards, 18.5 attempts
Allen – 31.5 yards, 6.5 attempts
Hurts – 30.5 yards, 7.5 attempts
Analysis: This should be an interesting showdown between Cook (113 ypg over L5) and the Eagles’ run D, which has held teams to 104 yards or fewer in 7/L9, and get Pro Bowl DT Jalen Carter back from injury. Conversely, Buffalo’s run defense ranks 30th of 32 teams, and they’ve allowed 406 rushing yards in their last 2. Saquon Barkley should be salivating for this one.
Picks: Cook OVER attempts; Barkley OVER yards, OVER attempts; Allen OVER yards, OVER attempts; Hurts OVER yards
Receiving Props (O/U)
AJ Brown – 61.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
DeVonta Smith – 44.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
Khalil Shakir – 40.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
Dallas Goedert – 33.5 yards, 3.5 receptions
Dawson Knox – 18.5 yards, 2.5 receptions
Cook – 12.5 yards, 1.5 receptions
Barkley – 12.5 yards, 2.5 receptions
Analysis: The Eagles’ passing offense is starting to click, and now they will get future Hall of Famer Lane Johnson back at right tackle to give Hurts even more time in the pocket.
Over his L6, Brown is averaging 10 targets, 7/88 with 4 TD. He is re-establishing his connection with Hurts. Cook has had 2+ catches in 6/L7.
Picks: Brown OVER yards, OVER receptions; Cook OVER receptions
Anytime Touchdowns
Barkley -110
Cook +100
Hurts +115
Allen +125
Brown +170
Smith +220
Goedert +250
Knox +300
Kincaid +330
Shakir +350
Eagles D/Bills D +950
Analysis: This game will feature some scoring. Barkley is kicking into gear, and should thrive against Buffalo’s soft run defense. Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards, it should be difficult to keep him out of the end zone.
Picks: Barkley, Cook, Goedert, Knox