Some weeks you win, some weeks you lose. Week 6 of the NFL season was a losing week for my NFL Projection Model, but overall, things have been pretty good so far this season. I’d take a five percent return on investment for the entire season, and we are sitting at 20 percent, so I’m playing with “house money” a bit here. I don’t expect to hit at this rate for the entire season — last week was the first step into some regression — but hopefully we can hit at that five percent clip the rest of the way and end with a great season.

Last week’s record: 1-3, -2.30 units
Season record: 20-12, +7.04 units, 20.0% ROI

Only three plays on the card to kick things off this week, but I’ll be looking to add some more in the coming days. It’s hard to bet some totals this week as the weather could get a little tricky in a couple of games, so keep an eye out. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

Week 7 best betsPittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-105) at Cincinnati Bengals

Worst price to bet: Steelers -5.5 (-110)

Trey Hendrickson is expected to be out tonight for the Bengals, and that’s bad news for this defense. This firmly makes the Cincinnati defense the worst in the league according to my model, and the matchup couldn’t be worse tonight. This season, Aaron Rodgers ranks 32nd out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when facing pressure, according to TruMedia. When he’s facing no pressure? He ranks seventh. That’s enough for me to think the Steelers score enough to win by the margin tonight.

Houston Texans +3 (-102) at Seattle Seahawks

Worst price to bet: Texans +3 (-110)

Listen, the Seahawks have been impressive this year. They’re playing well on both sides of the ball, and that’s more than what the Texans can say. I still don’t have a ton of faith in the Houston offense, but I think this matchup favors the Texans’ defense. Sam Darnold and the offense have been awesome in the early going of 2025, but they’re very reliant on explosive plays. The Seahawks offense ranks third in explosive plays, but the Texans defense ranks eighth in explosive plays allowed. The Texans have an argument for the best defense in the league, and I’m backing them on Monday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-104) at Detroit Lions

Worst price to bet: Buccaneers +4.5 (-110)

Baker Mayfield has been playing at an MVP level so far this season, and it’s time for me to back him in a marquee matchup. If history has told me anything, I’m sure the Bucs offense and Mayfield will be dreadful in this spot, but my model can’t get to this number. The Bucs have had a solid injury report so far today, and there is a possibility they get a handful of players back, including Mike Evans. We all know the Lions’ secondary has been riddled with injuries, and I think Mayfield can make them pay.