Persistent frozen temperatures have allowed Lake Erie’s ice cover to rapidly expand over the past week.

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Lake effect snow is synonymous with winters across Western New York. The longer Lake Erie stays unfrozen, the further into the season we will continue to see that lake effect snow.

But Lake Erie could be closed for business sooner rather than later thanks to the persistent cold staying locked in our region.

With this latest blast of arctic air, it’s hard to believe that just a few weeks ago we were seeing temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Those incredibly mild temperatures meant nearly all ice we had gained over the start of winter had melted. On Jan. 5, ice cover had already reached over 33 percent, but by Jan. 14, that had been reduced to just 1.86 percent ice cover. 

Since then, our temperatures have barely gotten back above freezing and as a result ice cover has been rapidly increasing. In fact, just one week after Erie ice cover reached its January low, that coverage had expanded to nearly 85 percent.

At last check, that coverage had gone back a little to around 75 percent. Even with our temperatures staying well below freezing in the past 24 hours, the recent gusty winds are to blame for the breaking up of some of that ice. 

But as we head into the weekend, those gusty winds are going to relax while those freezing temperatures won’t be going anywhere. Even extending into next week, we are looking at high temperatures staying stuck in the teens and 20s, and that means we are going to see that Erie ice cover growing again.

Lake Erie’s ice peaked last winter just shy of 96% coverage, which was the most we had seen since 2015 where we hit 98 percent. But if you are looking for 100 percent ice cover, you have to go back 30 years to 1996.

With the sustained cold ahead, Lake Erie’s ice cover will be into the 90-perccent-plus range very soon, and we will be seeing less and less lake effect snow as access to the snow-fueling moisture from the lake gets cut off. But as to whether or not we will see that ice cover officially reach 100 percent, we will have to wait and see.