Both Pennsylvania and Maine went to the polls yesterday ahead of the State of the Union address. All three were expected to be Democratic holds so the margin of victory was what people were looking for.\u00a0
\u00a0<\/p>\n
In Maine, HD-94 was on the ballot\u00a0in Lewiston.\u00a0There aren\u2019t Presidential results broken down by state house seat. There is some confusion with how well MVP Harris did in this state house district because Maine sucks at allocating ballots to precincts. However, the\u00a0best estimate has MVP Harris winning this district by less than 15 points.<\/p>\n
x<\/p>\n
Re-upping this. We think this +13 figure is probably pretty close to the mark, but there are error bars you don’t normally see with other states.<\/p>\n
We’ve also seen +5 Harris floating around out there, but we don’t know what that’s based on and don’t think that’s right.<\/p>\n
[image or embed]<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 The Downballot (@the-downballot.com<\/a>) February 24, 2026 at 8:56 PM<\/a><\/p>\n Our results were an UNDERPERFORMANCE with\u00a0a 6-point win. This was still a relief\u00a0because there was chatter on The Downballot that we had a real chance of losing this race…<\/p>\n x<\/p>\n BREAKING: Scott Harriman just won his election to Maine\u2019s HD-94! <\/p>\n He\u2019s ready to join the legislature and work to bring down the cost of living, expand health care access, and fight back against Republican extremism.<\/p>\n [image or embed]<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (@thedlcc.bsky.social<\/a>) February 24, 2026 at 8:45 PM<\/a><\/p>\n \nThere were quite a few factors in the underperformance:<\/p>\n \tA divisive caucus that broke the party along racial lines. In Pennsylvania, we were expected to win the special elections for HD-22 and HD-42 and we did.<\/p>\n In PA-HD-42, which is in the Pittsburgh area, we won by about a 34-point overperformance. That\u2019s one of the better ones this year and a salve after the Maine news above. Jen Mazzocco ran a pretty good campaign.<\/p>\n x<\/p>\n Final results in the Pennsylvania #HD42 (Harris+29) special election:<\/p>\n Jen Mazzocco (D)- 81.6% A 34 point overperformance from 2024 in the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh!<\/p>\n \u2014 Uncrewed (@uncrewed.bsky.social<\/a>) February 24, 2026 at 9:43 PM<\/a><\/p>\n In PA-HD-22, which is in the Lehigh Valley, our candidate Ana Tiburcio overperformed by a solid 17-point margin. Note that this district is heavily Latino by CVAP which means way fewer votes.<\/p>\n A good sign for November especially in HD-22…<\/p>\n x<\/p>\n This district had the second-biggest swing to Trump between 2020 and 2024 of all the specials in the cycle so far. The biggest was in NJ SD-32, which is also heavily Latino, and where the Democrat in the special also outperformed *both* Harris and Biden.<\/p>\n [image or embed]<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Daniel Donner (@donnermaps.bsky.social<\/a>) February 24, 2026 at 10:43 PM<\/a><\/p>\n The Pennsylvania overperformances are more evidence\u00a0in a long string of them. I doubt we will see that level in November but high single digits to low double digits are possible. That would easily win the House of Representatives and put the Senate in play as well!<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how you can help: by donating anything you can spare to these 15 House challengers and the 9 critical Senate races.<\/p>\n
\n\tA better than normal GOP candidate.
\n\tLarge Muslim minority which is celebrating Ramadan right now.
\n\tNo attempt to get our constituencies to the polls including the college students.
\n\tOn the fringes of the large snowstorm that hit over the weekend.<\/p>\n
Joseph Leckenby (R)- 18.4%<\/p>\n