{"id":154139,"date":"2026-04-01T08:59:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T08:59:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/154139\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T08:59:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T08:59:21","slug":"the-2026-primaries-likely-to-shape-the-pennsylvania-house-and-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/154139\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 primaries likely to shape the Pennsylvania House and Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Spotlight PA<\/a> is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and drives positive change in Pennsylvania. Sign up for our free newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

HARRISBURG \u2014 This spring, Pennsylvanians will vote in primary elections that will have huge ramifications for the way the state House and Senate look next year.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Spotlight PA analyzed all 228 legislative primaries \u2014 many of which are uncontested \u2014 on the May 19 ballot to pinpoint which are the likeliest to be competitive, impactful or otherwise worth watching.<\/p>\n

The general election in November is the ultimate decider of which party controls<\/a> each legislative chamber. But as the number of competitive districts shrinks<\/a> in Pennsylvania\u2019s General Assembly, a primary may be the only serious election a candidate faces before winning public office. The attitude and ideology of primary winners can shape what issues the Legislature approaches \u2014 such as skill games<\/a> and public transit<\/a> \u2014 and how the body addresses them.<\/p>\n

In Pennsylvania, primaries are open only to registered members of the political party<\/a>, meaning a fraction of a district\u2019s voters can decide the outcome. Each major party\u2019s leaders may also work to avoid contested primaries, to save energy and money for November. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, for instance, described his distaste for primaries in his memoir, noting a past one that \u201cjust sucked, as it always does when you are fighting with your own people and party.\u201d<\/p>\n

But primaries are also powerful, providing a chance for a party\u2019s voters (and well-heeled interest groups) to review the records of sitting elected officials or newcomers seeking office. They are also hard to predict, as each race is unique to its district and candidates.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithout a D or an R next to a candidate\u2019s name, the biggest cue voters use to make their choices is gone, making the choice about some other factors that are less clear,\u201d Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, said in an email to Spotlight PA.<\/p>\n

\u201cIncumbency, name recognition, policy positions and individual identities like gender, race and age are all elevated in importance in primaries and how voters prioritize these factors becomes key,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

State Rep. Bryan Cutler, R-Lancaster, a former House speaker who took office by primarying an incumbent, added that \u201cthe general idea of facing the electorate, in a primary and general, is what our commonwealth is built on.\u201d<\/p>\n

As leader, he oversaw the passage of the state\u2019s mail voting law, the legislative response to COVID-19 and several budget deals. Those compromises helped inspire<\/a> two unsuccessful primary challenges against him, Cutler said. But the job of state representatives, he argued, \u201cis to govern, not get reelected.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read on for more detail about Spotlight PA\u2019s rundown of primaries worth monitoring. The list is based on data from past elections and conversations with more than a dozen sources in both major parties, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss races.<\/p>\n

Exclusion from this list does not mean a primary race isn\u2019t important or won\u2019t be close. As circumstances evolve and Spotlight PA becomes aware of new information, races may be added. Candidate slates are up to date as of noon March 27, though some ballot challenges are ongoing.<\/p>\n

Primaries against sitting state lawmakers<\/p>\n

Serious primary challenges to incumbents often elicit a mix of frustration and dread in Harrisburg. Victories against sitting officials can embolden interest groups and make lawmakers think twice before making deals on tough issues. A primary loss for an established legislator can also help competitive seats flip from one party to another in the general election.<\/p>\n

These dynamics are prominent in the primaries against Republican state Sens. Camera Bartolotta and Chris Gebhard, both of which are expected to include conflict over skill games, one of Harrisburg\u2019s thorniest issues.<\/p>\n

Skill games are slot-like machines common in bars and convenience stores that exist in a legal gray area. Gebhard of Lebanon County sponsored a bill<\/a> that skill games supporters oppose, while Washington County\u2019s Bartolotta has been a vocal critic of the industry. The two incumbents have been previously attacked<\/a> by a political group funded by the conservative organization Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n

Citizens Alliance has in turn received funding from<\/a> skill games developer and distributor Pace-O-Matic. Citizens Alliance has previously backed<\/a> successful conservative<\/a> primary campaigns against incumbents.<\/p>\n

Capitol insiders expect Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance to be active in this year\u2019s Senate GOP primaries, although neither group answered Spotlight PA\u2019s questions about their efforts or relationship with each other, and there have not yet been enough campaign finance disclosures to assess their spending in the primary.<\/p>\n

Both challengers in these races have sought to communicate strong conservative bona fides. Gebhard\u2019s opponent, professional cowboy Clovis Crane, calls himself \u201cTHE Conservative Republican for District 48\u201d on his campaign website. Bartolotta\u2019s, masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan, boasts a \u201cconservative platform and principles\u201d and decries career politicians.<\/p>\n

\"StateState Sen. Camera Bartolotta, R-Washington, speaks at a 2024 press conference. (Commonwealth Media Services)<\/p>\n

Still, Senate Republicans say they are \u201cconfident that Republican primary voters will see through the lies and false narratives.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSpecial interest groups will spend big money and create false narratives for one reason only, their own interest, and Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance are no different,\u201d Senate Republican campaign committee spokesperson Michael Straw said in a statement to Spotlight PA.<\/p>\n

Not every primary centers on ideology.<\/p>\n

Judy Trombetta, a Haverford Township commissioner and former legislative staffer, is challenging state Rep. Greg Vitali, D-Delaware, a 33-year incumbent and vocal champion of environmental issues.<\/p>\n

Trombetta told Spotlight PA she doesn\u2019t differ much from Vitali in terms of the issues. However, she thinks she can bring energy and a fresh perspective to the office. For instance, she argued Vitali should have been more active during last session\u2019s inconclusive public transit funding debate<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cA good legislator can tackle multiple issues and know the timing is right based upon relationships and conversations,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Below are some of the primaries involving state House and Senate incumbents that may be competitive or are otherwise worth watching:<\/p>\n

State Senate<\/p>\n

Democratic: 18th District (Northampton) \u2014 Sen. Lisa Boscola vs. former Easton Council Member Taiba Sultana
\nRepublican: 20th District (Luzerne, Wyoming, Susquehanna, Wayne and Pike) \u2014 Sen. Lisa Baker vs. behavioral health specialist and army veteran Tyler Meyers
\nDemocratic: 22nd District (Lackawanna and Luzerne) \u2014 Sen. Marty Flynn vs. therapist Jeffrey Lake
\nDemocratic: 42nd District (Allegheny) \u2014 Sen. Wayne Fontana vs. software engineer Paul Steenkiste
\nRepublican: 46th District (Beaver, Greene and Washington) \u2014 Sen. Camera Bartolotta vs. former Carmichaels School Board member and masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan
\nRepublican: 48th District (Lebanon, Lancaster and Berks) \u2014 Sen. Chris Gebhard vs professional cowboy and horse breeder Clovis Crane<\/p>\n

State House<\/p>\n

Democratic: 22nd District (Lehigh) \u2014 Rep. Ana Tiburcio vs. Allentown Council Member Ce-Ce Gerlach
\nRepublican: 91st District (Adams) \u2014 Rep. Dan Moul vs. Conewago Valley School Director Lindsay Krug vs. Littlestown Area School Board President Nickolas Lovell
\nRepublican: 117th District (Luzerne) \u2014 Rep. Jamie Walsh vs. former PNC Bank VP and local nonprofit chief Bill Jones
\nDemocratic: 159th District (Delaware) \u2014 Rep. Carol Kazeem vs. former state Rep. Brian Kirkland
\nDemocratic: 166th House District (Delaware) \u2014 Rep. Greg Vitali vs. Haverford Township Commissioner and former legislative staffer Judy Trombetta
\nDemocratic: 195th House District (Philadelphia) \u2014 Rep. Keith Harris vs. social worker Sierra McNeil vs. pastor and former mayor\u2019s office administrator Kenneth Walker<\/p>\n

Primaries in districts with competitive general elections<\/p>\n

The winners in these seats will carry their party\u2019s standard for the November election in key swing districts that will decide who controls the General Assembly next year.<\/p>\n

But the high-profile nature of those general election races also makes party leaders reluctant to go through with bruising primaries in these districts, as they\u2019ll need all the resources they can muster for November.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe last thing in my view that we need is a primary,\u201d state Sen. Steve Santarsiero, who also chairs the Bucks County Democrats, said at the January meeting to decide on a preferred candidate in the 16th Senate District, according to PhillyBurbs.com<\/a>. Democrats aim to flip the upper chamber for the first time since the \u201890s, making this a key race.<\/p>\n

\"StateState Sen. Steve Santarsiero, D-Bucks, speaks at a 2025 news conference. (Commonwealth Media Services)<\/p>\n

However, the party couldn\u2019t agree, and two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination.<\/p>\n

Republicans face a similar situation in the 36th Senate District in northern Lancaster County, which flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2025 special election upset. The GOP has blamed its candidate in that race for the loss, and party leaders are gunning to take the seat back to help preserve their majority.<\/p>\n

The local party endorsed conservative state Rep. Tom Jones, who called for unity at the time. But others have said an outsider candidate may be a better option, according to LNP<\/a>. Jones faces a local committee person for the nomination.<\/p>\n

Below are some of the key primaries where the winning candidates will face a competitive general election that could help decide control of the General Assembly:<\/p>\n

State Senate<\/p>\n

Democratic: 16th District (Lehigh and Bucks) \u2014 Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley vs. Pennridge School Board member and middle school history teacher Bradley Merkl-Gump
\nRepublican: 36th District (Lancaster) \u2014 Rep. Tom Jones vs. former Rapho Township Supervisor Jere Swarr<\/p>\n

State House<\/p>\n

Democratic: 45th District (Allegheny) \u2014 Allegheny County Council President Patrick Catena vs. tech worker Fred Coleman vs. attorney Brittany Bloam
\nRepublican: 88th District (Cumberland) \u2014 former lobbyist Savannah Martin vs. retired law enforcement officer Jeff Clark
\nDemocratic: 121st District (Luzerne) \u2014 Wilkes-Barre Councilperson Jessica McClay vs. paramedic Michael Stadulis<\/p>\n

Primaries in districts that likely won\u2019t have competitive general elections<\/p>\n

The winners in these races probably won\u2019t face formidable challenges in November, which means there\u2019s a good chance they\u2019ll be the people representing their districts in Harrisburg.<\/p>\n

Because of that context, these primaries can provide some hints about the arguments motivating either party\u2019s base, or which interest groups or factions are gaining power.<\/p>\n

Take the 148th House District in the Philadelphia suburbs, where four Democrats are facing off. The candidates range from local officials with years of experience in government to a fresh college graduate whose campaign website promises to bring \u201cenergy, radical transparency, and above all, a necessary sense of urgency\u201d to governing.<\/p>\n

\"StateState Rep. Bryan Cutler, R-Lancaster, speaks at a state budget news conference in 2022, while he was state House speaker. (Commonwealth Media Services)<\/p>\n

For Republicans, there\u2019s rural Lancaster\u2019s 100th House District, which Cutler is vacating after representing it since 2006.<\/p>\n

The two GOP candidates, businessman Dave Nissley and retired state Trooper Kelly Osborne, promise conservative governance. However, Osborne, who serves on a local school board, promises \u201creal conservative results,\u201d while Nissley, who has never held elected office, promises \u201cservant-based leadership.\u201d<\/p>\n

Below are some of the key primaries (all in the state House) in which the winner will likely face little competition:<\/p>\n

Republican: 12th District (Butler) \u2014 business executive Ethan Nicholas vs. Air Force veteran and business owner Scott Timko
\nRepublican: 98th District (Lancaster) \u2014 Elizabethtown School Board member Danielle Lindemuth vs. Lancaster County Clerk of Courts Nicky Woods
\nRepublican: 100th District (Lancaster) \u2014 Business owner and church deacon Dave Nissley vs. retired state Trooper and Lampeter-Strasburg School Board member Kelly Osborne
\nRepublican: 130th District (Berks) \u2014 former school Superintendent Melissa Brewer vs. elementary school teacher Mitch Micale
\nDemocratic: 148th District (Montgomery) \u2014 Narberth Mayor Andrea Deutsch vs. attorney and LGBTQ activist Jason Landau Goodman vs. legislative staffer Megan Griffin-Shelley vs. UPenn campus activist Leo Solga
\nDemocratic: 200th District (Philadelphia) \u2014 School District of Philadelphia staffer Christopher Johnson vs. business owner Qasim Rashad vs. pastor and mental health counselor Deshawnda Williams<\/p>\n

BEFORE YOU GO\u2026 If you learned something from this article, pay it forward and contribute to Spotlight PA at spotlightpa.org\/donate<\/a>. Spotlight PA is funded by foundations and readers like you<\/a> who are committed to accountability journalism that gets results.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":154140,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[836,139,28,30,29,50,1478,432],"class_list":{"0":"post-154139","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-pennsylvania","8":"tag-election","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-pennsylvania","11":"tag-pennsylvania-headlines","12":"tag-pennsylvania-news","13":"tag-politics","14":"tag-spotlight-pa","15":"tag-top-stories-tmc"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=154139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/154140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=154139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=154139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=154139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}