MORE:\u00a0Here are the candidates who are running to replace Rep. Dwight Evans in Congress<\/a><\/p>\n “Both of these seats are in relatively moderate areas,\u201d said\u00a0Mike Sances, associate professor and graduate chair of the Department of Political Science at Temple University. \u201cSo the fact that [Democrats] think they have a shot is really a sign that the national environment favors Democrats this year.\u201d<\/p>\n \nRepublicans currently hold a 217-212 edge in the lower chamber, plus an independent also caucuses with the GOP. It’s the most narrowly divided House majority since the Great Depression.<\/p>\n Dominant wins for the Democrats in last year’s elections, including for Gov. Mikie Sherrill<\/a> in New Jersey, has brought optimism to the minority party that a power shift could be in the cards this November.\u00a0<\/p>\n But Republicans notched a recent victory in a nationwide redistricting battle with a\u00a0ruling<\/a>\u00a0by the Supreme Court that weakened a section of the Voting Rights Act that helped combat\u00a0racial discrimination,\u00a0paving the way<\/a> for some red states to possibly redraw map lines to favor Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n With primaries ahead in Pennsylvania (May 19) and New Jersey (June 2), let’s take a closer look at two local races that could prove to be pivotal in determining which party ends up with control of the House next year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District\u00a0 Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, pictured above in 2023, has represented Pennsylvania’s 1st for nearly a decade.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Pennsylvania’s 1st District, which includes all of Bucks County and a small part of Montgomery County, has voted for Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick since 2017, but there have been recent signs of a\u00a0leftward shift<\/a>\u00a0from voters. In the 2024 presidential race, Trump narrowly edged Kamala Harris by\u00a0less than 300 votes<\/a> \u2014\u00a0198,722 to\u00a0198,431 \u2014 in\u00a0Bucks County.<\/p>\n In the upcoming Democratic primary, Bucks County Commissioner\u00a0Bob Harvie is facing Lucia Simonelli, a former congressional science adviser, for the chance to unseat Fitzpatrick.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which calls itself the\u00a0official campaign arm of House Democrats,\u00a0added Harvie to its \u201cRed to Blue\u201d program<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0supports candidates in critical races across the country. The group has backed four candidates in Pennsylvania \u2014 more than any other state.<\/p>\n \nDCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said Harvie “has an undeniable record of showing up and serving the community that raised him” and cited a Global Strategy Group poll from March<\/a> that showed the incumbent’s support waning.\u00a0Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) has also thrown his support<\/a> behind the commissioner.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is one of the most important congressional races in the entire country,\u201d Harvie said in a statement<\/a> after Shapiro’s endorsement. \u201cAnd Bucks and Montgomery voters have a chance to reject Donald Trump, Brian Fitzpatrick and a broken Washington that is putting the American Dream further out of reach.\u201d<\/p>\n Simonelli, who describes herself as the more progressive candidate, has denounced Harvie’s\u00a0endorsements.<\/p>\n \n\u201cHand-picking a party loyalist did not work for the Democratic establishment during the Harris campaign and it will not work for PA-01,\u201d her campaign said in a statement to the\u00a0Center Square<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Global Strategy Group said Fitzpatrick held a six-point edge over Harvie in a recent survey<\/a> of 400 likely general election voters in the district.<\/p>\n New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) speaks during the second day of the Republican National Convention in 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n New Jersey’s 2nd District, which contains all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Gloucester and Ocean counties, has elected Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew to four consecutive terms.\n<\/p>\n After refusing to vote for Trump\u2019s impeachment in 2019,\u00a0Van Drew switched his party affiliation on Jan. 7, 2020, and pledged his \u201cundying support\u201d <\/a>to Trump. He was one of 147 lawmakers who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election and has since become one of the administration’s most vocal loyalists.<\/p>\n \nFour Democratic hopefuls are running in the upcoming primary: Tim Alexander, a civil rights attorney and former law enforcement officer; Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock;\u00a0Terri Reese, who worked for the\u00a0New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development; and\u00a0Bayly Winder, a\u00a0former official for the U.S. Agency for International Development.<\/p>\n \nAmong the candidates, Winder has emerged as a front-runner in terms of fundraising<\/a>,\u00a0and he’s picked up an endorsement<\/a> from the New Jersey Citizen Action PAC.\u00a0<\/p>\n Winder has been a\u00a0vocal opponent<\/a> of a 2.6 million-square-foot data center that’s been proposed in Vineland. While Gothamist<\/a> reported that the project’s developers have contributed to Van Drew\u2019s campaign, the Republican has tried to distance himself from any ties to the proposal.\u00a0In a statement on Facebook<\/a>,\u00a0his campaign said\u00a0the project has “no federal government component.” The data center has received overwhelming opposition<\/a> from residents, and Democrats seek to capitalize on the issue at the polls.<\/p>\n Bayly Winder paid for a sign on a side of a truck that sits outside the Landis Theater in Vineland on Jan. 21 during a public hearing about a proposed data center.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \n\u201c[Winder’s] concern that AI data center expansion in communities across South Jersey is harming the residents due to environmental damage and leading to rising utility bills is similar to our concerns of undue burden on working families,\u201d Dena Mottola Jaborska, NJCA executive director, said in a statement.\n<\/p>\n While all six counties in the district voted for Trump in the 2024 election, three of them (Atlantic, Cumberland and\u00a0Gloucester) turned blue and supported Sherrill in the Democrats’ landslide victory in last year’s gubernatorial race. This shift combined with a recent\u00a0Rutgers-Eagleton statewide poll<\/a>\u00a0that found\u00a0only 26% people\u00a0have a favorable opinion of Trump could be signal<\/a> that even a district long seen as a Republican stronghold could be up for grabs.<\/p>\n \n\u201cThis is going to be a good year for Democrats just like every midterm election is a good one for the party that doesn\u2019t hold the presidency,\u201d Sances\u00a0said. \u201cGiven the House is so closely divided, even a handful of flips could give Democrats control.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"Brian](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Brian_Fitzpatrick.width-704.jpg\")
Daniella Heminghaus\/Imagn Images<\/p>\n![\"Jeff](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Jeff_Van_Drew.width-704.jpg\")
Jasper Colt\/Imagn Images<\/p>\n![\"Bayly](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Winder_for_Congress.width-704.jpg\")
Amanda Oglesby\/Imagn Images<\/p>\n