Tuesday is Primary Day in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania. We\u2019ll have tons of coverage for you all day, but tonight, let\u2019s focus on Pennsylvania, perhaps the ultimate battleground state.<\/p>\n
In keeping with its recent reputation as the center of the political universe<\/a>, the state may play a decisive role in determining control of the House of Representatives as Democrats try to flip four seats there. Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat widely seen as a potential presidential contender, is also up for re-election<\/a> there this year.<\/p>\n In an interview, he said he was focusing his political muscle on Pennsylvania races at every level of government.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve got at least four competitive congressional races that could determine the outcome of who\u2019s in control of the U.S. House,\u201d he told me. \u201cI\u2019m doing everything in my power to rally the troops, raise funds, build an organization that can help not just win my own re-election, but help Democrats up and down the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n His in-state emphasis reflects the ultracompetitive nature of Pennsylvania. It is also a contrast with a number of other possible candidates \u2014 some of whom aren\u2019t on the ballot this year, or are from politically safer states \u2014 who have made recent pilgrimages to traditional early-voting presidential primary states like South Carolina and New Hampshire.<\/p>\n So far, Shapiro\u2019s re-election contest \u2014 he is expected to face Stacy Garrity<\/a>, the Republican state treasurer \u2014 doesn\u2019t look especially close<\/a>. But November is a long time from now, and he\u2019ll be the first to stress that no one should take anything for granted, especially in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n Trading Beaufort, S.C., for Bucks County<\/p>\n Primary voters in early-voting presidential states expect to meet candidates, sometimes multiple times, often years before voting begins. While Shapiro released a book this year<\/a> and maintains a significant national donor network, he is not doing much on that circuit so far.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s not hard to see how Shapiro\u2019s approach could translate into a national argument, too \u2014 depending on how November goes.<\/p>\n \u201cPrimary voters in those other states are going to be able to appreciate how important it was for him to concentrate on the state this year \u2014 it would almost seem ridiculous if he didn\u2019t,\u201d former Representative Conor Lamb, a Pennsylvania Democrat, said of Shapiro\u2019s potential \u201cnational future.\u201d \u201cHe\u2019s smart enough to know what his responsibility is right now, which is to lead the ticket.\u201d<\/p>\n When I caught up with Shapiro, I said I knew that he was focused on his own race and on races in Pennsylvania, and that he had said<\/a> that no one should be looking beyond the midterms.<\/p>\n \u201cStipulating all of that,\u201d I said, \u201cwhat is the national story you hope to be able to tell about Pennsylvania the day after the midterms?\u201d<\/p>\n He had a ready answer.<\/p>\n \u201cPennsylvania is the ultimate swing state,\u201d he replied. \u201cIt\u2019s the hardest state to win in, and it\u2019s an incredibly hard state to govern in. I\u2019ve managed to win every time I\u2019ve been on the ballot, and we\u2019ve governed successfully. We\u2019ve got a lot more work to do, but we\u2019ve gotten a lot of stuff done.\u201d<\/p>\n He added, \u201cMy hope is that Pennsylvania, in this election cycle, is once again pivotal and helps deliver a Democratic majority in the U.S. House and provides a check on Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n An early test<\/p>\n One measure of his political influence will come tomorrow, in a crowded Democratic House primary race<\/a> to take on Representative Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican.<\/p>\n Shapiro is supporting<\/a> Bob Brooks, who leads a major firefighters union and is backed by a broad spectrum of endorsers, ranging from Senator Bernie Sanders to the House Democratic campaign arm<\/a>. Shapiro and Brooks campaigned together<\/a> yesterday.<\/p>\n There are risks to Shapiro\u2019s decision to wade in, warned former Representative Susan Wild, a Democrat supporting another candidate, Carol Obando-Derstine.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Brooks doesn\u2019t win, Shapiro\u2019s going to have lost some good will,\u201d she said. \u201cWhy do you want to wade into a competitive primary and risk antagonizing part of your base?\u201d<\/p>\n Brooks has also had to walk back<\/a> a comment<\/a> he made about Shapiro, a reminder that political newcomers can come with pitfalls, even in this strongly anti-establishment moment.<\/p>\n The governor dismissed the argument that the endorsement could backfire as a hypothetical.<\/p>\n \u201cI believe in Bob Brooks, I believe in firefighters, and I believe that he is the best candidate to win that district,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n (Complicating the race: A mysterious super PAC<\/a> with links to Republicans has paid for mailers and ads in the district supporting a candidate named Lamont McClure, a former Northampton County executive, and opposing Brooks and another candidate, Ryan Crosswell, a former Justice Department attorney, my colleague Shane Goldmacher reported<\/a>.)<\/p>\n Democrats also have an outside shot<\/a> to flip the Republican-controlled State Senate and to secure a trifecta. If Democrats have total control of Harrisburg, I asked, would Shapiro pursue redistricting that would benefit his party (something a number of other<\/a> Democrats, often from bluer states, are considering<\/a>)? He called that question, too, a hypothetical.<\/p>\n Representative Chris Deluzio, a Pennsylvania Democrat actively involved in the competitive House races this year, said flipping the State Senate would be tough \u2014 but could be significant for Shapiro\u2019s agenda in 2027.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Democrats have the House and the Senate in Harrisburg,\u201d he said, \u201cit opens up the governor\u2019s ability to deliver much more boldly.\u201d<\/p>\n quote of the day<\/p>\n \u201cHe was Trump before Trump was Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n That was Michelle Smith, a longtime aide to Ken Paxton, the hard-right Texas attorney general who is vying for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in his state. Paxton, who has never lost an election in his quarter-century of public life, is up against Senator John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent.<\/p>\n My colleagues Michael Kruse and Lauren McGaughy, who wrote a profile of Paxton<\/a>, describe his story as reliant on a narrative of political persecution not unlike President Trump\u2019s. <\/p>\n One Number<\/p>\n 37 percent<\/p>\n That\u2019s President Trump\u2019s approval rating in the latest New York Times\/Siena poll, a second-term low amid the deeply unpopular war with Iran.<\/p>\n My colleagues Lisa Lerer, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker explained<\/a> that the Republican Party is on rocky political footing heading into the midterm elections as the president\u2019s approval rating sinks and economic concerns rise.<\/p>\n IN ONE GRAPHIC<\/p>\n Redistricting has thrown a wrench in primary schedules, caused incumbents to spar with one another in newly combined congressional districts and generally stoked upheaval. Redistricting is also, my colleague Ashley Wu reports<\/a>, making the midterms less competitive this year.<\/p>\n ONE LAST THING<\/p>\n Kentucky\u2019s curious cast of political characters<\/p>\n What state is home to politicians with nicknames like \u201cHappy,\u201d \u201cMr. No\u201d and \u201cCocaine Mitch\u201d?<\/p>\n