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<\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o could shape South-Central Pennsylvania\u2019s summer weather<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tEXPECTED TO LAND, HERE\u2019S CHIEF METEOROLOGIST CHRISTINE FERREIRA. IT\u2019S TIME FOR OUR SUMMER WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRST, I\u2019D LIKE TO START BY TAKING A LOOK AT THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND THE PROBABILITIES OF EL NINO, OR LA NINA. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE IN AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN INDICATED BY THESE GRAY BARS. BUT LOOK AT EL NINO IN THE RED EMERGING AS THE SUMMER GOES ON AND POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG. IT\u2019S THAT SUPER EL NINO YOU\u2019VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT AS WE APPROACH WINTER. SO WHAT IS EL NINO? IT\u2019S MARKED BY ABOVE AVERAGE OCEAN TEMPERATURES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA, AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE THERE COULD BE AROUND A HALF A DEGREE TO A DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE. WHEN IT GETS TWO DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, THAT\u2019S THE SUPER EL NINO. IT LEADS TO A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM, WHICH COULD BRING RAIN TO MUCH NEEDED AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG NORTHERN JET STREAM. LOOK AT HOW FAR IT\u2019S ARCHED UP INTO CANADA. THERE. THAT IS GOING TO ALLOW WARM AIR TO BUILD THIS SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS. A SPELL OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND FOR US IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, EL NINO. EMERGING SUMMERS TEND TO LEAD TO AVERAGE CONDITIONS AROUND HERE. LET\u2019S TALK ABOUT THE TROPICS AND EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC. WE WILL HAVE LOWER WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT. IT\u2019S LIKELY THAT WE SEE MORE HURRICANES IN THE PACIFIC BASIN, BUT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, IT\u2019S THE OPPOSITE. WE\u2019LL HAVE STRONGER WIND SHEAR, STRONGER TRADE WINDS. THESE WINDS TEND TO DISRUPT HURRICANE FORMATION OR DON\u2019T ALLOW HURRICANES TO BECOME AS STRONG. SO I THINK IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, WE WILL SEE A LOWER IMPACT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS THIS YEAR. NOW TO WILDFIRES. YOU CAN SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR HERE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WITH TWO AREAS OF EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, THE OTHER IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST, WHERE THEY\u2019VE HAD HISTORIC LOW SNOWPACK THIS WINTER AND SPRING. SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE FIRE, POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE, FOR JULY, EVEN FOR AUGUST, YOU SEE THOSE TWO HOT SPOTS, ONE RIGHT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST, EXPANDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE JET STREAM LINES UP CORRECTLY, WE COULD SEE WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSPORTED HERE IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. NOW WE GO TO DROUGHT, AND WE TALKED ABOUT THIS EARLIER IN THE NEWSCAST. YOU CAN SEE THAT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. IT COULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. BUT IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF JULY, DROUGHT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. WE COULD HAVE SOME DAYS WITH BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. LET\u2019S TAKE A LOOK AT OUR SUMMER FORECAST. OVERALL, I DO FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. AVERAGE IS 75 DEGREES. RAINFALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. OUR AVERAGE RAINFALL OFFICIALLY IN HARRISBURG OVER JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST IS ABOUT 12.5IN. SO WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT? I SEE STRETCHES OF HEAT WITH SOME 90 DEGREE DAYS, BUT ALSO COOLER STRETCHES, AND THOSE TWO COULD BALANCE EACH OTHER OUT. IT COULD ALSO BE WETTER TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER. IN AUGUST. FOR OUR SUMMER 2026 IMPACTS, EXPECT ENERGY USAGE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR 90 DEGREE DAYS. WE HAD 23 LAST YEAR. I THINK WE\u2019LL SEE FEWER, MAYBE 18 TO 22 THIS YEAR. TROPICAL INFLUENCE SIMILAR BECAUSE WE DIDN\u2019T HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THE TROPICS LAST YEAR, AND WILDFIRE SMOKE, THE CHANCE OF SEEING HAZY OR SMOKY SKIES IN T\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o could shape South-Central Pennsylvania\u2019s summer weather<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\tUpdated: 6:54 PM EDT May 22, 2026\n\t\t<\/p>\n