{"id":202476,"date":"2026-05-26T12:48:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T12:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/202476\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T12:48:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T12:48:09","slug":"democrats-saw-relatively-strong-turnout-for-pa-s-gubernatorial-primary-what-does-that-mean-for-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/202476\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats saw relatively strong turnout for Pa.\u2019s gubernatorial primary. What does that mean for November?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Spotlight PA<\/a> is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and drives positive change in Pennsylvania. Sign up for our free newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

HARRISBURG \u2014 Turnout was much higher among Democrats than Republicans in last week\u2019s uncontested primary elections for Pennsylvania governor<\/a>, a strong sign for the party heading into the general election<\/p>\n

Still, political experts who spoke to Spotlight PA cautioned that information and enthusiasm were low because of the lack of competition in both primaries, that other factors play into higher Democratic participation, and that much can happen in that marquee race between now and the fall.<\/p>\n

More than 1.1 million Democrats cast ballots for Gov. Josh Shapiro, compared to nearly 640,000 Republicans for Treasurer Stacy Garrity, according to unofficial results published by the Pennsylvania Department of State. That means for every three voters who cast their primary ballot for Garrity on Tuesday, roughly five voters did the same for Shapiro.<\/p>\n

Taken alone, that isn\u2019t the cleanest measure of voter enthusiasm. Political scientists and operatives who spoke to Spotlight PA noted the disparity may have less to do with the gubernatorial candidates themselves (who were both uncontested) than with the other races on the ballot. Democrats had several contested congressional primaries that may have driven up party participation statewide.<\/p>\n

However, Democrats\u2019 better turnout still held up in a race with fewer confounding factors.<\/p>\n

The 91st state House District in Adams County was a rare seat that had two competitive primaries \u2014 three people ran for the Democratic nod, and three (including the incumbent, Rep. Dan Moul) ran for the Republican one.<\/p>\n

The results? As a percentage of the parties\u2019 total voters, GOP turnout in the district was 24.7%, and the Democratic turnout was significantly higher, 33.9%. (Republicans have more than twice the registered voters Democrats do in the 91st, so their raw numbers<\/a> were higher.)<\/p>\n

Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, said the relative turnout in Adams County could be indicative of \u201ca real gap of enthusiasm on the ground.\u201d (She noted that the median registered Democrat in \u201csuch an overwhelmingly conservative place\u201d is not necessarily the typical registered Democrat in the state.)<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a weird outlier. The fact that you\u2019ve got strong Democratic turnout there is quite striking,\u201d Putnam said.<\/p>\n

Operatives on both sides of the aisle noted that it isn\u2019t the only sign of trouble for Garrity, a Republican with much lower fundraising numbers and less name recognition than Shapiro.<\/p>\n

Sam Chen, a Lehigh Valley-based GOP strategist, said there was less turnout for Garrity in counties that supported President Donald Trump in 2024 than he would have expected.<\/p>\n

The president\u2019s party historically also tends to do worse during midterm elections<\/a>, and coupled with Trump\u2019s low<\/a> approval ratings, \u201cthe winds are against\u201d Garrity, Chen said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople just weren\u2019t paying attention\u201d<\/p>\n

In the last gubernatorial race, Republicans had a crowded primary that ended with far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County winning the nomination while the rest of the candidates split more moderate GOP voters.<\/p>\n

Mastriano went on to lose decisively to Shapiro<\/a>. At the time, Republican operatives bemoaned the way the primary had gone and the party\u2019s failure<\/a> to build support around an alternative.<\/p>\n

This time around, there was no primary (save an unsuccessful write-in campaign on Mastriano\u2019s behalf). But Stephen Medvic, a political scientist from Franklin & Marshall College, said the open field may have had a downside for Garrity: It cost her valuable attention from voters, who would have likely seen GOP debates or more ads featuring Garrity if there had been a primary.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople would have said, \u2018Oh, you know, there is a competitive gubernatorial race on the Republican side. Let me hear from these candidates,\u2019\u201d Medvic said. \u201cPeople just weren\u2019t paying attention because neither of the parties had a competitive gubernatorial race.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also an open question about how Garrity\u2019s proximity to Trump \u2014 he endorsed her and she held a major fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida club \u2014 will work for her.<\/p>\n

Medvic told Spotlight PA it probably helped Garrity stave off a primary challenge, whether or not that\u2019s a good thing.<\/p>\n

But Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in Western Pennsylvania, argued Garrity risks losing swing voters and independents. At the same time, Trump\u2019s supporters may not turn out to vote for her since the president\u2019s name isn\u2019t on the ballot this fall.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a double-decker problem they have,\u201d Mikus said. \u201c[You can] try to energize your base and repel independents or try to attract independents and stand up to Donald Trump and suppress the MAGA base.\u201d<\/p>\n

With about six months until the election, Jeff Coleman, a former Republican state lawmaker and political strategist, said Garrity needs to do something big to motivate potential donors and voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cTell us what you\u2019re really angry about, what you\u2019re really frustrated about in terms that don\u2019t just sound like you\u2019re trying to defeat a popular incumbent,\u201d he said. \u201cThat you really are bringing a huge, larger-than-life idea about how to fix the state.\u201d<\/p>\n

Coleman said \u201ccatching fire\u201d will be key to fundraising for Garrity, especially if she frames her candidacy as a grassroots campaign.<\/p>\n

As of early May, Garrity reported having about $1.4 million in the bank<\/a>. Shapiro reported having more than $37 million<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It won\u2019t cut it for any Republican \u2014 not just Garrity \u2014 to campaign on policies previous candidates have long fought for, according to Coleman. He said it\u2019s too common for Pennsylvania Republicans to run on preserving the state\u2019s Rainy Day Fund, passing a state budget without a tax increase, or increasing access to public school alternatives.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019ve got to shoot much higher than that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Medvic also noted that comparisons between primaries and general elections always have limitations.<\/p>\n

Plus, he added, \u201cThere\u2019s a long time until the fall.\u201d<\/p>\n

BEFORE YOU GO\u2026 If you learned something from this article, pay it forward and contribute to Spotlight PA at spotlightpa.org\/donate. This story was funded in part thanks to the support of the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund. Learn more about how we are supported here.<\/a><\/p>\n

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