![\"Algal](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6MOWIFZOA5FJ5LMHEOATTKYKCI.png\")
A “moderate” bloom is expected this summer.NOAA\/Heidelberg Univ.\/Univ. of Michigan\/NCSU\/)<\/p>\nPUT-IN-BAY, OH \u2014 Scientists say western Lake Erie narrowly avoided a much larger surge of nutrient runoff this spring after the heaviest spring rains missed the Maumee River watershed, likely holding harmful algae to moderate levels this summer.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, June 25, federal forecasters predicted that western Lake Erie will experience a moderate harmful algal bloom this summer, assigning it a projected severity of 3.5 on a 10-point severity index.<\/p>\n
The projection has a likely range between 3 and 4.5. If that forecast holds true, it would make the annual bloom stronger than last year\u2019s unusually mild bloom, but roughly comparable to conditions seen in 2024.<\/p>\n
But the lake nearly faced a far worse scenario.<\/p>\n
A single early April storm delivered about 60 percent of this spring\u2019s bloom-fueling phosphorus load, scientists said. But the lake nearly faced another major hit in May, when heavy rains that caused flooding elsewhere in Ohio largely missed the Maumee River watershed. Had that precipitation tracked further north, the amount of phosphorus runoff would have severely worsened the algae outlook.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis area missed something that would have been historically bad. We are very fortunate by that,\u201d said Rick Stumpf, an oceanographer who leads Lake Erie algae forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).<\/p>\n
\u201cWe really did dodge something up here in May,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
A “moderate” bloom is expected this summer.NOAA\/Heidelberg Univ.\/Univ. of Michigan\/NCSU\/)<\/p>\n
Environmental groups say another moderate bloom is not evidence of meaningful progress \u2014 and that one storm delivering most of the phosphorus needed to fuel the bloom underscores how heavily Lake Erie remains dependent on short-term weather patterns.<\/p>\n
The Alliance for the Great Lakes on Thursday argued the region\u2019s bloom reduction strategy remains fundamentally flawed because states continue emphasizing voluntary conservation programs without stronger regulatory and accountability requirements. <\/p>\n
Thursday\u2019s forecast comes months after Ohio, Ontario and Michigan missed a 2025 deadline set under the 2015 binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement calling for a 40 percent reduction in phosphorus pollution entering Lake Erie.<\/p>\n
More: Michigan algae report shows no turning point<\/a><\/p>\n It also follows Ohio lawmakers approving a new two-year state budget this month that cuts funding for the state\u2019s flagship water quality initiative, H2Ohio, by roughly 39 percent \u2014 reducing from about $270 million proposed by Gov. Mike DeWine to roughly $165 million.<\/p>\n \u201cWe simply cannot accept harmful algal blooms as the new normal in Lake Erie,\u201d said Joel Brammeier, president and CEO of the Alliance for the Great Lakes. \u201cIt\u2019s time to get serious about stopping the pollution that causes blooms at the source.\u201d<\/p>\n A moderate bloom this summer would follow one of the mildest bloom seasons in a decade<\/a>, when the severity only reached 2.4 last year.<\/p>\n Mild conditions and a downward trend in dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) \u2014 the bioavailable form most readily used by cyanobacteria \u2014 have fueled optimism<\/a> among farmers who have attributed the improved lake conditions to subsidized efforts to reduce nutrient loss by using cover crops and changing tillage practices.<\/p>\n But researchers warn that bloom severity still tracks closely with spring weather and river discharge even as some nutrient indicators show tentative improvement from conservation farming.<\/p>\n Algae forecasters began warning in May<\/a> that a wet spring had the potential to elevate algae risk after heavy rains soaked northwest Ohio and northeastern Indiana.<\/p>\n According to the Midwest Regional Climate Center at Purdue, precipitation across much of the Midwest during the first week of April was 300- to 400 percent above normal, with some areas over 500 percent. That erased drought conditions in northwest Ohio.<\/p>\n The Maumee River, which drains heavily agricultural land in northwest Ohio, northeast Indiana and southeast Michigan, contributes roughly half of the phosphorus entering western Lake Erie \u2014 making it the dominant driver of annual bloom formation.<\/p>\n According to scientists at Heidelberg University, most of the phosphorus expected to fuel this summer\u2019s algae bloom came from one storm.<\/p>\n Nate Manning, director of water quality research at Heidelberg, about 60 percent of this spring\u2019s total bioavailable phosphorus load came from an April 2-4 storm. That was enough to push the lake back toward a moderate algae season after last year\u2019s mild reprieve.<\/p>\n Had major spring rains pushed further north, Manning said nutrient loading would have tracked closer to 2019 levels, which produced the fifth most severe bloom since 2000.<\/p>\n \u201cWe did, in that sense, dodge a bullet,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The bloom is filled each year with microcystin, a liver toxin that can sicken humans and animals \u2014 particularly dogs, which are sometimes killed<\/a> by swimming in scum-covered water.<\/p>\n![\"Toxic](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/S222WZRCZVHH5LNKUVM23RPTQI.JPG\")
Toxic cyanobacteria from a harmful algal bloom (HAB) turn western Lake Erie water green at the Maumee Bay State Park beach in Oregon, Ohio on Aug. 7, 2019.<\/p>\n