Pennsylvania Democrats, including Gov. Josh Shapiro, are pointing to a stunning upset in a special election for a deep-red statehouse district as proof that the party has momentum while campaigning this fall for a trifecta in Harrisburg.<\/p>\n
Butler County Democrat Brandon Dukes said his apparent victory over Republican Scott Timko, by fewer than 100 votes as of Wednesday afternoon<\/a>, was thanks to his focus on local issues, such as a major corridor perennially under construction to the frustration of residents.<\/p>\n \u201cWe kept it local, we kept it practical, and we kept it common sense,\u201d Dukes said, in an interview.<\/p>\n The 12th Pennsylvania House District, just north of Pittsburgh, had gone for President Donald Trump by more than 18 percentage points just two years ago and had been held by Republicans since 1999.<\/p>\n Dukes\u2019 apparent win attracted national attention Wednesday as both a sign of the backlash to the president\u2019s party heading into November and as a north star for centrist Democrats as they seek a path forward.<\/p>\n \u201cWe won that district last night with a middle of the road community leader, who I backed, who won this improbable race,\u201d Shapiro told CBS Mornings, contrasting Dukes against the party\u2019s more left-leaning candidates this cycle.<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing are common sense folk from the community who, I think, reflect a lot more my values and my approach to governing who are winning and are upsetting Republicans in these deeply Republican districts,\u201d said Shapiro, a moderate Democrat widely expected to run for president in 2028.<\/p>\n Shapiro recorded a robocall urging voters to cast ballots in the race, his campaign confirmed.<\/p>\n Recipe for November<\/p>\n Democrats in Pennsylvania are aiming to flip four congressional districts this fall and win control of the Pennsylvania Senate for the first time in 30 years with Shapiro, a popular governor, at the top of the ticket.<\/p>\n Dukes, who will have to win the seat again in November, shattered previous Democratic runs in the Butler County district.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fact we just flipped this seat tonight is a political earthquake,\u201d said U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle, a Philadelphia Democrat, said on X.<\/p>\n The seat was previously represented for more than two decades by one of the Pennsylvania House\u2019s most conservative members, former State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, who retired in 2023 and was known for his anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and actions.<\/p>\n State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, another Philadelphia Democrat, said the seat is one the party \u201cshould not have had a chance to come within sneezing distance of,\u201d but that Dukes\u2019 performance provides a blueprint that can be replicated throughout the state.<\/p>\n \u201cWinning here means there is not a single safe seat for the GOP,\u201d said Kenyatta, a vice chair with the Democratic National Committee, on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Associated Press had not called the race as of early Wednesday evening, but both parties made statements indicating that they expected Dukes\u2019 lead to hold.<\/p>\n Chantell McCurdy, the director of Butler\u2019s election bureau, said the initial count has been completed, and there is a five-day period to challenge the results.<\/p>\n James Markley, a spokesperson the Pennsylvania Republican Party, said in a statement that the race needs to be a \u201cwake up call for Republican voters.\u201d<\/p>\n While noting his confidence that the party would win the seat back in November, he also appeared to fault Republican voters\u2019 hesitance to embrace mail voting as contributing to the party\u2019s defeat in the special election.<\/p>\n \u201cThe General Election will come down to which party does a better job getting their voters to participate in the election using any legal means of casting a ballot. Democrats did a better job of this,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Trump has long railed against mail voting even as Pennsylvania Republican officials have urged more use of the voting method in recent years.<\/p>\n Pennsylvania Republican House Leader Jesse Topper downplayed the significance of the special election, calling the results \u201cdisappointing but unsurprising\u201d because of demographic change in the district, timing of the vote during the summer and the unpredictable electorate for such contests.<\/p>\n Pennsylvania Republican House Leader Jesse Topper downplayed the significance of the special election, calling the results \u201cdisappointing but unsurprising\u201d because of demographic change in the district and timing of the vote during the summer.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is much more yet to unfold in the final months of the 2026 election cycle and we will continue carrying out vision for positive growth in Pennsylvania through November,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But Democrats noted that Dukes\u2019 victory in the district would not have been possible if he did not work to win over Republican voters.<\/p>\n \u201cYou cannot win a deep-red district like this without getting at least a big chunk of independents and at least some Republicans,\u201d who are \u201crejecting the chaos and high prices of Donald Trump,\u201d said Pennsylvania Democratic chair Eugene DePasquale.<\/p>\n \u201cI think this is a recipe for a big November for the Democratic Party,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Dukes, a loan administrator, said listed affordability, infrastructure, and education as the key issues for his campaign.<\/p>\n DePasquale said Dukes\u2019 campaign worked because he \u201cfocused on issues that mattered in the district,\u201d such as high prices and cuts to Medicaid and food assistance under Trump.<\/p>\n But DePasquale dismissed the idea that Democrats should only run certain kinds of candidates to win.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to be a big-tent party, and we need to have candidates that reflect their districts,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are embracing candidates that spread the ideological spectrum of the Democratic coalition, and you\u2019re going to see that lead to success this November.\u201d<\/p>\n Statehouse races often don\u2019t receive as much money or attention as congressional and statewide races, but Dukes received a boost from several major figures in the party.<\/p>\n In addition to Shapiro\u2019s robocall, Dukes campaigned with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis<\/a> and U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio<\/a>.<\/p>\n He also boasted an endorsement from former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, another possible presidential contender, who said Wednesday<\/a> that Dukes\u2019 win \u201creflects voters\u2019 readiness for change.\u201d<\/p>\n Rematch ahead<\/p>\n After he\u2019s sworn in, Dukes will serve out the remainder of a roughly two-and-a-half month term, following the resignation of former state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba, a Republican, from her position.<\/p>\n As an incumbent, he\u2019ll then face a rematch with Timko in November for a full, two-year term.<\/p>\n Dukes said he plans to \u201cstick with what worked best\u201d for his November campaign, which will include maintaining face-to-face contact with voters.<\/p>\n House Speaker Joanna McClinton, a Philadelphia Democrat, said Dukes\u2019 win builds momentum for the party to make the case to voters about how electing Democrats achieves their goals on issues like codifying abortion protections and raising the minimum wage.<\/p>\n