{"id":282112,"date":"2026-09-09T10:14:55","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T10:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/282112\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T10:14:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T10:14:55","slug":"an-early-look-at-the-race-for-erie-county-executive-investigative-post","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/282112\/","title":{"rendered":"An early look at the race for Erie County executive : Investigative Post"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Hardwick, the only announced candidate, is already polling. Other potential Democratic candidates are maneuvering, as are Republicans.\n <\/p>\n

\t \t\t<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\tNews and analysis by Geoff Kelly<\/a>, Investigative Post’s political reporter<\/p>\n

Get more Investigative Post reporting in your Google results.<\/p>\n

A few weeks ago Erie County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick became the first candidate to announce publicly, if not loudly, his intention to run for Erie County executive next year.<\/p>\n

He did so in the middle of a guest spot on WBEN\u2019s Hardline<\/a>, the Sunday morning politics talk show he used to host before he became a county legislator in 2009.<\/p>\n

Last week Hardwick also became the first to put a poll in the field \u2014 a 21-question text survey designed to see how he sizes up against other Democrats who have their eyes on the job.<\/p>\n

The first two questions establish whether respondents approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump\u2019s job performance, which party they belong to, and whether they \u201cgenerally\u201d vote in primary elections.<\/p>\n

Question 3 asks voters to choose between three Democratic candidates for county executive: Hardwick, Deputy County Executive Lisa Chimera and Assembly Member Pat Burke.<\/p>\n

Question 4 takes Chimera out of that mix and substitutes the name of Amherst Town Supervisor Shawn Lavin, whose day job is deputy commissioner of personnel for the county.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Hardwick speaks at a recent press conference.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s pause here for some context on that substitution.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz is not seeking a fifth term next year. Chimera and Hardwick have been the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination to succeed him, with Burke a dark horse looking for a lane to open up, should party leaders remain split between those two. Poloncarz has advocated for Chimera, a former county legislator and Town of Tonawanda board member. In the last year she has made more public appearances on his behalf and featured in the executive office\u2019s press releases, all with the intention of raising her public profile. Erie County Democratic Committee Chair Jeremy Zellner, a Poloncarz ally, has promoted her candidacy, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, Zellner\u2019s loss in the June primary<\/a> for a state senate seat raised questions not only about his future as chair, but the efficacy of ECDC\u2019s campaign machine and the value of its endorsement. Chimera, I\u2019ve been told, has since been trying to separate herself from Zellner and Poloncarz, worried that being labeled the party\u2019s favored candidate could reduce, rather than enhance, her prospects with voters.<\/p>\n

In response, Zellner \u2014 who has indicated that, despite the party\u2019s unrest, he\u2019d like to stick around as chair<\/a> through next year\u2019s county executive race \u2014 began to float the idea of Lavin as the party\u2019s nominee.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now back to the poll.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Respondents are asked demographic questions including gender, age, ethnicity, education, income, and what part of the county they live in. They are asked whether they think Erie County is on the right track and if its government is doing a good job.\u00a0<\/p>\n

How do they feel about Hardwick\u2019s job performance? How about Poloncarz\u2019s? What do they think of Chimera? Burke? Lavin? Do they even know their names?<\/p>\n

They are also asked to rank Hardwick individually against Chimera and Lavin.<\/p>\n

With nine months before the Democratic primary, it\u2019s early in the game for Hardwick\u2019s campaign to field a poll like this. Only Hardwick, who\u2019s been elected comptroller twice, has countywide name recognition, and the poll\u2019s results are likely to demonstrate that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indeed that may be the point of the exercise. Democratic leaders are ever eager to avoid primaries in which candidates spend donors\u2019 money to drag each other before facing a Republican in the general election. Hardwick may want to show them he\u2019s got the highest profile. The questions determining respondents\u2019 political leanings may be intended to help Hardwick \u2014 a Republican-turned-Democrat \u2014 argue he\u2019s got crossover appeal, as well.<\/p>\n

I asked Hardwick for the results; he said he hadn\u2019t seen them yet and did not expect to for a couple weeks. If he had the numbers and shared them, he\u2019d have been obligated under state election law to publish the results and methodology of the poll.<\/p>\n

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Things are no less settled on the Republican side of the ballot. Republicans may dream of a candidate like Chris Jacobs \u2014 former county clerk, state senator and congressman with cross-party support and boatloads of family money \u2014 coming out of political retirement.\u00a0But the last time I spoke with Jacobs, he didn\u2019t sound interested.<\/p>\n

Erie County Clerk Mickey Kearns, should he win reelection this fall, will surely make a push for the Republican nomination, but he\u2019s been damaged by scathing audits from Hardwick\u2019s office, one of which discovered embezzlement of public funds by a now-former, now-imprisoned employee. Plus, many GOP leaders don\u2019t trust Kearns, who runs on their line but remains a registered Democrat.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Erie County Sheriff John Garcia has some public relations problems, too, courtesy of his former narcotics chief, D.J. Granville.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Other names I\u2019ve heard include businessman A.J. Baynes and former state senator and county lawmaker Edward Rath III, who\u2019s been out of elected office for four years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Also\u00a0 Erie County Legislator Frank Todaro of Lancaster, who has the money to self-fund a campaign but little name recognition outside his suburban district. <\/p>\n

Whoever is elected next year will serve a three-year term, as local elections are being moved to even years, courtesy of a state law adopted in 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Republicans currently are suing for a second time to prevent that change. A federal judge in June dismissed the party\u2019s first lawsuit. Common opinion has it that the higher turnout generated during even-year elections \u2014 when federal and statewide offices are on the ballot \u2014 tends to favor Democrats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There are 270,880 registered Democrats in the county, according to the board of elections, and 161,038 Republicans. Another 193,480 voters belong to minor parties or no party at all.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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