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While computer models remain at sea on the fate of a nor\u2019easter taking shape off the Southeast coast, it is all but certain that floodwaters will be covering some roads at the Jersey Shore<\/a> the next few days while the beaches lose some sand.<\/p>\n Already, the Army Corps of Engineers beach-fill contractor working in Avalon<\/a> has decided to halt operations and move the equipment out of harm\u2019s way, said Army Corps spokesperson Steve Rochette.<\/p>\n Inland impacts remained a source of considerable less certainty, but the National Weather Service posted a flood advisory<\/a> for the tidal Delaware River from northern Delaware to central Bucks County<\/a> from 10 p.m. Wednesday until 4 a.m. Friday. <\/p>\n Advisories were up for the Jersey Shore<\/a> for minor flooding Tuesday, and a flood warning<\/a> for potentially road-swamping moderate flooding was issued for 4 p.m. Wednesday until 1 a.m. Friday. \u201cMany roads\u201d may become impassable, the weather service said.<\/p>\n And after that?<\/p>\n \u201cOnce you get to Friday and beyond, the forecasts becomes uncertain,\u201d said Zachary Cooper, a meteorologist at the weather service\u2019s Mount Holly office. <\/p>\n As expected, a coastal storm was beginning to take shape off the Carolina coasts Tuesday afternoon and was forecast to mature through the workweek, generating winds from the northeast \u2014 that\u2019s why they are called nor\u2019easters \u2014 adding to an already brisk onshore flow. <\/p>\n In addition, with a full moon due Saturday, the tides are going to get an additional astronomical tug.<\/p>\n \u201cThere could be some shenanigans with that,\u201d said Matt Benz, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.<\/p>\n The timing of the storm\u2019s impacts at the Shore and in the Philly area<\/p>\n The winds already were gusting to 25 mph at the Shore and in the immediate Philly region on Tuesday afternoon, and they were forecast to increase Wednesday, with gusts to 45 mph at the coast and 35 mph in the Philly area.<\/p>\n Minor flooding was expected Tuesday evening on the oceanfront and back bays at the Shore, with more-significant moderate flooding at high tides Wednesday and Thursday evenings. <\/p>\n Along the Delaware River in Philadelphia, any high-tide flooding was like to be minor Tuesday night and Wednesday, but could approach moderate levels with Thursday\u2019s high tide at 11 p.m.<\/p>\n No significant rains were in the forecast at least through Thursday, but the outcome for the weekend would depend on the intensity and path of the coastal storm, with rain more likely at the Shore than inland. <\/p>\n What\u2019s with all the forecast uncertainty?<\/p>\n The food fight among computer models has persisted, with the European favoring a more westward track, and the U.S. model more out to sea. <\/p>\n In general the more recent runs have been favoring a slightly more westward track, which would make substantial rains, and more wind, more likely, Cooper said. For now, the weather service was going with a 20% to 30% chance of rain across the region Friday into Sunday. <\/p>\n The forecasts are far more certain on the winds. <\/p>\n The onshore winds Tuesday were the result of high pressure, or heavier air, over southeastern Canada. Winds circulate clockwise around centers of highs, and thus the winds from the northeast, which also explain the October-like chill, with temperatures getting no higher than the 60s this week.<\/p>\n An intense coastal storm would add mojo to those winds and could make for quite a raw weekend. <\/p>\n One thing that is a near certainty is that the forecasts will undergo significant changes in the next day or two.<\/p>\n Yes, this is early for a nor\u2019easter<\/p>\n This is unusually early to be concerned about a nor\u2019easter. They usually wait until later in the fall, when the temperature contrasts that ignite storms become sharper as warm air lingers and interacts with the ambitious colder air from the north.<\/p>\n However, a precocious nor\u2019easter would not be as unusual as what is happening with the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.<\/p>\n That would be: nothing.<\/p>\n