{"id":305774,"date":"2026-10-13T14:28:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/305774\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T14:28:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:28:10","slug":"pennsylvania-prediction-18-year-olds-will-turn-out-at-higher-rates-than-they-did-in-the-2022-midterms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/305774\/","title":{"rendered":"Pennsylvania Prediction: 18-year-olds will turn out at higher rates than they did in the 2022 midterms"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u2019d like to make a confession. I hate predictions. Especially about elections. They are a distraction. They ignore our own capacity for meaningful action, as if the most important question is what is likely, as opposed to what shall we do?<\/p>\n

Especially because today is just one week until Pennsylvania\u2019s voter registration deadline, the number-one thing I want us all to be thinking about is action, not probabilities. What shall we do? What actions can and will we take to promote robust turnout and contribute to an election that is free and fair for everyone? How about this:<\/p>\n

Our most recent PA data (with registrations through September 27, 2026) show that 27% of 18-year-olds are registered statewide. That\u2019s a low rate overall compared with other states we\u2019re tracking, but it represents an impressive 5 percentage point gain from where the numbers stood in July, just two months earlier. Five points is a major increase in just two months.<\/p>\n

And since today\u2019s post is all about predicting whether 18-year-olds will turn out in PA at a higher rate then they did in the 2022 midterms, the point I want to emphasize is that the September 2026 rate is 6 percentage points above the rate we saw back in September 2022, which was just 21%. With registration running 6 percentage points higher statewide this year compared to 2022, it\u2019s reasonable to predict turnout will be higher, as well.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In addition to the fact that more of Pennsylvania\u2019s 18-year-olds are registered than they were in 2022, our prior reports detailed that in 2024, higher registration rates among 18-year-olds in PA counties had a strong positive correlation with turnout among those who were registered. We saw the same phenomenon in Ohio and New York, as illustrated here.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019re not saying there\u2019s a causation effect necessarily, but when more 18-year-olds in a community are registered, more of them know an election is coming and can encourage one another to turn out.<\/p>\n

In addition, as we reported back in May<\/a>, in PA, registered 18-year-olds have turned out at rates close to older voters in recent presidential elections (above 80% in both 2020 and 2024) and at reasonably strong rates in midterms (above 60% in both 2018 and 2022).<\/p>\n

Because registration rates are running higher than they were in 2022, if turnout among the registered is at, above, or even a bit below where it was in 2022, we\u2019ll see more 18-year-olds turning out in PA than we did in 2022.<\/p>\n

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There\u2019s a lot on the ballot in PA this November<\/a>. There\u2019s every Congressional seat, the Governor\u2019s race, \u00bd of the seats in the state Senate, and all of the seats in the state House.<\/p>\n

As in past years, we see enormous variation within the state. That includes some school districts making extraordinary gains over 2022, and others losing ground.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

At The Civics Center, when it comes to Pennsylvania, we answered the question of \u201cwhat shall we do\u201d three years ago when we started our year-round organizing in the state, and we are seeing that investment \u2013 as well as investments of our state and local partner organizations \u2013 pay off today. An 18-point gain in a major US city in just 4 years is absolutely phenomenal. I\u2019m especially proud of Pittsburgh, since that\u2019s where we co-lead the Allegheny County Youth Vote Coalition. Changes like these don\u2019t happen by accident. They happen by organizing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Even if you didn\u2019t start 3 years ago, there is still time. I focused this post on the great gains since 2022. But the fact remains that as of late last month, closing in on the October 19 registration deadline, only 27% of PA\u2019s 18-year-olds are registered statewide.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s just horrible. It\u2019s horrible for the teens who may not get a chance to vote. It\u2019s horrible for the state, which loses their energy and their voices, and it\u2019s horrible for democracy because our systems only work well when we\u2019re all in the game together. <\/p>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n

Tell everyone you know in PA about the upcoming October 19 deadline, the low levels of 18-year-old voter registration and that there is still time to move the rate much higher. Point them to our state resources to get started registering to vote.<\/p>\n

Learn about registering and voting in PA<\/a><\/p>\n

Please consider a donation. The Civics Center\u2019s work in PA, across the country, and and our data and reporting are only possible with gifts from our supporters.<\/p>\n

Donate<\/a><\/p>\n

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