Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti<\/a> \u2014 challenging U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan<\/a> (R., Luzerne) in the 8th Congressional District, which stretches across the northeastern corner of the state \u2014 is ahead 51% to 46% among likely voters.<\/a><\/p>\n Bob Brooks<\/a>, a union leader and retired firefighter running against U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie<\/a> (R., Lehigh) to represent the 7th Congressional District, which covers the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, is up 49% to 44%, the poll found.<\/a><\/p>\n The results are within the margin of error. Between 3% and 6% of voters remain undecided, according to the survey of about 400 likely voters in each of the districts from Oct. 16 to 22.<\/p>\n But as Democrats<\/a> make an aggressive push to win control of the U.S. House amid Trump\u2019s lagging approval ratings, the polling underscores where the party sees two of its best chances of defeating Trump-aligned Republicans<\/a> \u2014 not just in the state, but across the country.<\/p>\n \u201cI just feel Cognetti has the right outlook for Pennsylvania,\u201d said Mercedes Vinsko, a 23-year-old law student from Shavertown, Luzerne County, who wants Democrats to \u201cflood\u201d Congress in the midterms. \u201cI\u2019m hoping a blue wave will trend in a better direction for America.\u201d<\/p>\n The 5-percentage-point leads held by Cognetti and Brooks in their congressional districts represent Democrats\u2019 widest advantages heading into the final stretch of four battleground races<\/a> in Pennsylvania, according to the poll.<\/p>\n In the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick<\/a> is seeking another term, Democrat Bob Harvie<\/a> leads by 2 percentage points. In the Harrisburg-based 10th Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry<\/a> and Democrat Janelle Stelson are tied, the poll found.<\/p>\n Both parties have invested heavily in all four matchups. Collectively, they have funneled more than $116 million into television ads and have brought in national party leaders<\/a> to stump for their candidates.<\/p>\n Nowhere have the candidates and their allies spent more, though, than in the Lehigh Valley-based 7th and Scranton-based 8th Congressional Districts, where Mackenzie and Bresnahan narrowly beat multi-term Democrats in 2024<\/a>. As Trump won the state and surged to the White House that year, Mackenzie and Bresnahan combined to win 10,300 more votes than their opponents out of nearly 790,000 votes cast.<\/p>\n Two years later, both freshman lawmakers have closely aligned themselves with the president \u2014 promoting his economic agenda and defending controversies like the war in Iran \u2014 while Democrats hope that unpopular alliance benefits their nominees. Trump\u2019s job performance gets low grades across both districts, and particularly in the Lehigh Valley region, where his approval sits at 37%, according to the poll.<\/p>\n Another factor working in Democrats\u2019 favor, observers say, is Gov. Josh Shapiro<\/a>\u2019s expected strong performance at the top of the ticket as he seeks reelection, which could elevate downballot candidates from his party<\/a>. In the Lehigh Valley district, Shapiro\u2019s 19-percentage-point lead over Republican Stacy Garrity<\/a> matches the statewide result from The Inquirer\/New York Times\/Siena poll in September. In the Northeastern Pennsylvania district, Shapiro leads by 11 percentage points, the latest poll found.<\/p>\n \u00bb READ MORE: Why Josh Shapiro put himself on the line for the midterms \u2014 but still won\u2019t talk about 2028<\/a><\/p>\n Former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican who represented the Lehigh Valley seat until it flipped blue in 2018, said Shapiro\u2019s commanding performance is \u201ccompounding\u201d the issues around Trump\u2019s favorability that are dragging down GOP candidates across the country.<\/p>\n \u201cThe challenge for Pennsylvania Republicans is the governor\u2019s race, \u2026 Trump\u2019s approval rating, and just the overall midterm environment,\u201d Dent said, calling it a \u201cdaunting\u201d mix.<\/p>\n 7th District: Mackenzie vs. Brooks<\/p>\n Among the four competitive Pennsylvania races, the 7th District was the first to move further in Democrats\u2019 direction in recent months.<\/p>\n Two frequently cited nonpartisan election ratings groups reclassified the race from a \u201ctoss-up\u201d to one that \u201cleans Democratic\u201d as the national environment changed and as Brooks and his national allies poured money into his campaign.<\/p>\n The president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association, Brooks was considered a top Democratic recruit after Shapiro encouraged him to run and he consolidated support from across the party\u2019s ideological spectrum. Over the summer, he raised $2.6 million \u2014 more than three times as much as Mackenzie brought in and, according to Brooks\u2019 campaign, more than any previous candidate over a similar period in the Lehigh Valley.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are running this like we\u2019re losing,\u201d Brooks said in an interview last week.<\/p>\n \u00bb READ MORE: Will Democratic leaders\u2019 \u2018working-class\u2019 candidate in the high-stakes Lehigh Valley race be the answer they\u2019re looking for?<\/a><\/p>\n Mackenzie, a former state representative, has spent much of the recent weeks of the race lobbing attacks at his opponent \u2014 alleging Brooks has a troubled business background and personal life. In mailers that went out to voters last week, Mackenzie\u2019s campaign depicted Brooks in a prison jumpsuit with the message, \u201cIs jail the next stop for Bob Brooks?\u201d<\/p>\n Brooks has denounced the accusations, which focus on whether he was required to pay for workers\u2019 compensation insurance for his small business. Brooks said he was not required to do so, and his lawyer sent a cease-and-desist letter to Mackenzie\u2019s campaign<\/a>, which the Republican rejected, then doubled down on the message.<\/p>\n Christopher Karabinus, 51, an educator who lives in Northampton County and responded to the poll, said that he has been inundated with negative political advertising in recent weeks but that it has \u201czero impact\u201d on how he decides whom to vote for.<\/p>\n He said he is voting for Mackenzie because he trusts that Republicans can get the cost of living \u201cunder control.\u201d He said his message to elected officials from both parties is simple: \u201cDemocrat, Republican, just unite everybody, solve our problems, make it a better place. Let\u2019s stop the fighting, let\u2019s stop the arguing, and let\u2019s make it a better country.\u201d<\/p>\n Donald Jennings, 85, who lives outside Allentown in Lehigh County, said he plans to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. He said he has not seen \u201cany Republican\u2019s bills help anybody,\u201d citing cuts to healthcare coverage under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m just hoping that [Brooks] will be able to convince people to pass bills that will lower the costs and increase our freedoms,\u201d Jennings said, adding that a Democratic-controlled Congress could serve as a check on the Trump administration.<\/p>\n According to The Inquirer\/New York Times\/Siena poll, 59% of voters in the district disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president. About the same percentage of people believe Mackenzie supports Trump too much, 39%, as those who think his support for Trump is \u201cabout right,\u201d 35%.<\/p>\n Rating the candidates\u2019 abilities to handle issues in Congress, the voters polled said Brooks would handle the cost of living, foreign wars, data centers, and corruption better than Mackenzie. Voters were split evenly on who has better character between Brooks and Mackenzie, while more believed Brooks would do \u201cwhat\u2019s best for ordinary Pennsylvanians.\u201d<\/p>\n 8th District: Bresnahan vs. Cognetti<\/p>\n Pennsylvania\u2019s 8th District is the only one of the four competitive races in the state that is still considered a true \u201ctoss-up\u201d by the ratings experts.<\/p>\n The district covers all of Lackawanna, Wayne<\/a>, and Pike Counties, as well as parts of Luzerne and Monroe Counties. Trump\u2019s biggest gains in Pennsylvania between his 2020 and 2024 campaigns<\/a> were in this corner of the state<\/a>, and his approval ratings now \u2014 at 43% approve and 57% disapprove \u2014 remain slightly higher than the statewide and national averages.<\/p>\n Bresnahan, who led his family\u2019s electrical contracting business before entering Congress, has largely backed the president\u2019s agenda but distanced himself from his party\u2019s positions on organized labor and has earned union support in his campaign for a second term<\/a>.<\/p>\n Cognetti, who originally ran for and won the Scranton mayor\u2019s office as an independent, has been a prolific fundraiser \u2014 raising $2.5 million to Bresnahan\u2019s nearly $1 million in the recent quarter \u2014 and received the backing of national Democrats. She has relentlessly targeted Bresnahan over his stock trading<\/a> while in office, making fighting public corruption a hallmark of her campaign.<\/p>\n
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