Which party will win the United States Senate? Will OpenAI or Anthropic go public first? And now, what will Penn\u2019s acceptance rate be next year?\u00a0<\/p>\n
According to notices<\/a> filed with its federal regulator this week, the prediction market platform Kalshi could soon open betting markets on admission rates at 22 elite institutions \u2014 including Penn. Users will be able to wager whether a college\u2019s admission rate will be less than, equal to, or greater than a certain value.\u00a0<\/p>\n The process of approving the new markets with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will take several weeks, according to a Kalshi spokesperson.\u00a0<\/p>\n A request for comment was left with a University spokesperson.\u00a0<\/p>\n The markets will only include options to bet on the total application numbers and total admissions rates \u2014\u00a0not specific Early Action or Early Decision results. The company plans to open markets for all eight Ivy League institutions and several peer institutions \u2014 including Stanford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.\u00a0<\/p>\n Get the DP delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n Sign Up<\/a><\/p>\n Wharton School professor Abraham Wyner \u2014 who studies probabilistic modeling \u2014 said in an interview that there is always possible insider trading risk that comes from introducing new betting markets. \u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAdministrators are human beings, like everybody else,\u201d he explained. \u201cThey will have a dangling opportunity, a shiny bright object that will attract them to think that they can make money.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Still, Wyner does not believe the risk of insider trading is all that great. Due to increased scrutiny on small betting markets, he explained that it will likely be hard to translate these markets \u201cinto a substantial potential profit opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe have algorithms that will look for people who are betting oddly on odd events,\u201d he added. \u201cIn other words, there\u2019s a significant probability of getting caught.\u201d<\/p>\n Kalshi plans to use the Common Data Set \u2014 as colleges report individual acceptance rates through their institutional portals \u2014 and annual disclosures that universities submit to the federal government\u2019s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System to verify results.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThis is just the gamification of America,\u201d Wyner said. \u201cSometimes it\u2019s just ridiculous. This one crosses into the \u2018just ridiculous\u2019 category.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Isha Chitirala is a News Editor at The Daily Pennsylvanian and can be reached at chitirala@thedp.com<\/a>. At Penn, she studies economics and political science. Follow her on X @IshaChitirala<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Which party will win the United States Senate? Will OpenAI or Anthropic go public first? And now, what…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":314358,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[69,71,70],"class_list":["post-314357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-philadelphia","tag-philadelphia","tag-philadelphia-headlines","tag-philadelphia-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/314358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}