Lake scientists say the assessment indicates year-to-year changes in severity remain closely tied to weather and Maumee River discharge.<\/p>\n
![\"2025](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/3HLPOJFPUBERFPZVO57OTC5X3E.jpg\")
A NOAA Lake Erie harmful algae bloom severity index for 2000-2025. The index is based on the amount of cyanobacteria biomass over three 10-day composites. The 2025 bloom had a severity of 2.4,
\nwhich is considered mild.NOAA<\/p>\n
Tom Bridgeman, an ecology professor and director of the University of Toledo Lake Erie Center, said the mild severity of this year\u2019s bloom is \u201cprimarily due to the reduced flow of water from the Maumee River due to relatively dry spring and summer weather.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, there is data suggesting that the concentration of nutrients in the river is also beginning to decline in recent years, which would presumably be due to the increased adaption of agricultural best management practices by producers in the watershed,\u201d Bridgeman said. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a lot of \u2019noise\u2019 in the data which means it may take several more years of improvement before we can clearly see the difference being made by farmers, but it looks like things are moving in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ohio\u2019s latest Nutrient Mass Balance Study<\/a>, published in late 2024, found that nonpoint agricultural runoff continues to account for about 90 percent of the Maumee River phosphorus load and swings in loading remain tightly tied to wet and dry years.<\/p>\n The study notes that while millions in conservation funding have flowed into the western basin, \u201ca delay is expected in observing load reductions as the impact of legacy nutrient management practices wanes over time.\u201d<\/p>\n Nonetheless, this year\u2019s bloom severity fell within what\u2019s being called an \u201cacceptable\u201d range by some scientists.<\/p>\n \u201cA 3 is the target,\u201d said Ohio Sea Grant Director Chris Winslow on Aug. 27 during a presentation at Ohio State University\u2019s Stone Laboratory<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019d probably like to see a little less green, but this is something that we would call \u2018acceptable\u2019 given the condition and what we use the watershed for.\u201d<\/p>\n Winslow said that long-term watershed monitoring data shows dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) \u2014 the form most readily used by cyanobacteria \u2014 is trending downward while particulate phosphorus has increased in recent years, possibly due to changes in tilling practice.<\/p>\n Winslow attributed reductions in dissolved phosphorus to farmers in the Maumee River basin adopting recommendations such as subsurface fertilizer placement and avoiding applications ahead of rainfall.<\/p>\n \u201cWe think we\u2019re seeing the recommendations for farmers start to grab hold,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are seeing success.\u201d Nonetheless, he expressed frustration with cuts to the H2Ohio program \u2014 which state lawmakers cut by about $105 million over the next two years\u2014 raising concerns that reduced incentives could slow adoption of runoff-reducing practices. <\/p>\n Winslow also noted that internal phosphorus released from lake sediments contributes only a small fraction of bloom-fueling nutrients \u2014 about 3-to-7 percent depending on conditions \u2014 meaning watershed inputs continue to dominate the system.<\/p>\n At a Nov. 19 water quality roundtable in Hardin County, Ohio, convened by the Institute for Journalism and Natural Resources (IJNR), farmers said fertilization and nutrient conservation practices have improved substantially<\/a> over the past decade, but adoption is uneven.<\/p>\n More farmers are taking advantage of H2Ohio subsidies to plant cover crops and change tillage practice. However, Jeff Duling, a no-till and strip-till farmer who participates in the state program said some older farmers will probably have to \u201cdie off\u201d before a younger generation sees the value in changing nutrient management techniques. <\/p>\n Farmers also warned that federal upheaval is causing disruption. Edge-of-field monitoring \u2014 the main source of real-world runoff data \u2014 has been reduced due to staffing cuts at the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) arm of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re shutting down those sites,\u201d said Kris Swartz, a Wood County farmer who chairs the Ohio Agriculture Conservation Initiative (OACI<\/a>). \u201cMaybe they\u2019ll come back in the future but there\u2019s gonna be a data gap.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe always say we\u2019re doing science-based farming. We want that science to prove our practice,\u201d Swartz continued. Without the edge-of-field data, \u201cultimately, it\u2019s going to lead to\u2026 not having as much confidence in the decisions we\u2019re making and maybe making the wrong decisions because that\u2019s not proving out the practices we\u2019re doing.\u201d<\/p>\n Bill Kellogg, a Hardin County soybeans, corn and wheat farmer who demonstrates conservation techniques, said the H2Ohio subsidies just about cover the cost of the practices.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re not making money on this,\u201d Kellogg said. \u201cWe\u2019re not getting rich.\u201d<\/p>\n Independent of the bloom forecast, lake scientists warned that recent federal disruptions are undermining the region\u2019s ability to track the bloom<\/a> and evaluate improvement progress. <\/p>\n The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab in Ann Arbor has lost roughly 40 percent of its staff due to Trump administration staffing cuts and other federal cuts have hampered toxin monitoring and field sampling, said Greg Dick, director of the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research at the University of Michigan.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, some U.S. Geological Survey stream gages essential for calculating Maumee River phosphorus loads were also briefly shut off during federal budget disputes. The annual NOAA algae assessment itself was delayed this fall due to the shutdown.<\/p>\n Advanced early warning devices known as environmental sample processors, or ESPs, weren\u2019t deployed in the lake this year<\/a>. The devices transmit water sample data to labs in real-time and warn drinking water systems when algal toxins are forming.<\/p>\n The bloom is filled each year with microcystin, a liver toxin that can sicken humans and animals \u2014 particularly dogs, which are sometimes killed<\/a> by swimming in scum-covered water.<\/p>\n![\"Stone](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/LYVPYWAB4BDY7F76REO522EF7U.jpeg\")
Chris Winslow, director of Stone Lab, holds water samples from Lake Erie on Aug. 28, 2025.Garret Ellison<\/p>\n![\"Edge](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/THHFBGGDQ5AHNHNQAW6WR2ZZAQ.jpeg\")
A USDA ARS edge-of-field monitoring station at the Chris Kurt demonstration farm in Dunkirk, Ohio, Nov. 19. 2025. (Garret Ellison | MLive)Garret Ellison<\/p>\n
![\"Conservation](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/BRF7JRQGPJGGFAA2WY2G7RSTAY.jpeg\")
Ohio conservation farmers Jerry McBride, (left) and Kris Swartz, (right), speak to journalists at the Bill Kellogg farm in Hardin County, Nov. 19, 2025.Garret Ellison<\/p>\n