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<\/a><\/p>\nThe Lions\u2019 passing attack continues to show why they\u2019re one of the best in football, and Jared Goff is on a bit of a hot streak. While much of their production this year has been against poor defenses, they\u2019ve produced high numbers against the Packers and Rams in recent weeks, two of the better defenses in the league. This is especially encouraging given the loss of Sam LaPorta over a month ago.<\/p>\n
For the season, the Lions rank:<\/p>\n
Second in passer rating (110.4)Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)Fifth in dropback EPA (0.195)Ninth in success rate (48.9%)<\/p>\n
By just about all efficiency metrics, this is a top-10 pass offense that is bordering on a top-five ranking. And speaking of top-five, the Lions\u2019 duo of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are making a case for one of the best receiving duos in football. In the past six weeks alone, they both are producing ridiculous numbers:<\/p>\n
St. Brown: 505 yards, 4 TDsWilliams: 581 yards, 4 TDs<\/p>\n
And the crazy thing is that includes a 0-yard game for both players over that span.<\/p>\n
As it has been for the entire season, the most suspect unit is the offensive line and pass protection. Detroit ranks 22nd in PFF pass blocking grade, 29th in pass block win rate, 19th in pressure rate allowed (per NFL Pro), and 32nd in time to pressure allowed. The good news is the Lions get the ball out quick (2.72 seconds, fifth in NFL), which mitigates some of that damage.<\/p>\n
The Steelers give up a ton of yardage, as evidenced by the chart above, but their defensive efficiency is much better. Only two quarterbacks over the past two months have significantly outperformed their passer rating average when playing the Steelers. For the season, this pass defense has hung around average in most metrics:<\/p>\n 14th in passer rating (90.3)14th in yards per attempt (7.0)13th in dropback EPA (0.049)13th in success rate (46.3%)<\/p>\n Where they typically thrive is in their pass rush. They rank third in PFF pass rush grade, fourth in ESPN\u2019s pass rush win rate, 25th in pressure rate (NFL Pro), but fourth in time to pressure. Unfortunately for them, they may be without two of their top pass rushers in T.J. Watt (22nd-best PFF pass rushing grade) and Nick Herbig (eighth).<\/p>\n In terms of coverage, there\u2019s been so many moving parts in the secondary that it\u2019s hard to get a good sense of where they\u2019re currently at. Starting cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. was added midseason and Jalen Ramsey was moved to safety about a month ago. There seems to have been some improvement, but it\u2019s worth mentioning Pittsburgh has PFF\u2019s 16th-best coverage grade, and they rank 26th in average separation allowed per target.<\/p>\n Player to watch: CENTER WATCH. At this point, it\u2019s unclear what Graham Glasgow\u2019s status is after a knee injury cost him Thursday\u2019s practice. His backup, Trystan Colon, is dealing with a wrist injury, too. But as we\u2019ve seen all year, the downgrade at center has been a problem, and this could make it worse.<\/p>\n Advantage: Lions +1.5. The Steelers read to me as a pretty average pass defense that will likely be missing a couple key components of their pass rush. Detroit has been bordering on a top-five offense, but I am a little concerned about the injuries on the offensive line. Still, Goff should continue his run of productive days.<\/p>\n Lions run offense (5th) vs. Steelers run defense (16th)<\/p>\n I\u2019ve been warning of an inconsistent running game that is a bit too over-reliant on explosive plays, and that came to roost last week against the Rams, where the Lions produced one of their worst rushing efforts of the season. They\u2019ve now produced four games under 80 rushing yards\u2014all under 3.6 yards per carry\u2014and they\u2019ve lost all four of those games.<\/p>\n It\u2019s the same old story with their efficiency metrics: they look very productive as an overall average, but their below-average success rate suggests fundamental issues masked by explosive runs:<\/p>\n 4.9 yards per carry (fourth)-0.013 rush EPA (eighth)40.8% success rate (20th)<\/p>\n You can\u2019t completely ignore the explosive plays, though. While the Lions only rank 15th in rushes of 10+ yards, when you bump that up to 20 yards, the Lions are tied for the second-most (14), and if you raise it to 30-yard rushes, no one has more than Detroit\u2019s nine.<\/p>\n Still, I have concerns about the consistency of Detroit\u2019s run blocking, which ranks seventh in PFF grade, 25th in run block win rate, and 12th in adjusted line yards.<\/p>\n Talk about an inconsistent unit. The Steelers have managed to hold some of the best rushing attacks (Bears, Colts, Dolphins) well below their season averages, but they\u2019ve also recently allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Bills and Ravens. While those teams benefit from mobile quarterbacks, most of the damage done in those games was via a traditional running game.<\/p>\n For the season, the Steelers rank average or below average.<\/p>\n 20th in yards per carry (4.4)28th in rush EPA (-0.002)20th in success rate (42.4%)<\/p>\n In terms of explosive plays allowed, the Steelers are right around league average, allowing 42 rushes of 10+ yards (t-16th), and seven rushes of 20+ yards (t-15th).<\/p>\n Player to watch: Cameron Heyward. With all the uncertainty surrounding Detroit\u2019s interior offensive line, it\u2019s worth pointing out that the Steelers\u2019 36-year-old defensive tackle is still killing it. He\u2019s got the third-highest run defense grade among interior defenders (83.0) and fifth in the league in run stops (25).<\/p>\n Advantage: Lions +0.5. I can really see this going either way because of the inconsistencies of each unit and the injuries along Detroit\u2019s offensive line. But for the year, Detroit has found more success than the Steelers, so I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see Detroit break out a game-changing explosive run this week.<\/p>\n Steelers pass offense (23rd) vs. Lions pass defense (7th)<\/p>\n The Pittsburgh Steelers don\u2019t pass the ball a ton (24th in attempt) or for much yardage (23rd in yards per game), but their efficiency numbers are actually somewhat respectable. Thus are the benefits of having a veteran quarterback who can get the ball out quick (second shortest time to pass), avoid turnovers, and complete a high percentage of his low-risk passes (seventh in completion percentage).<\/p>\n Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers\u2019 passing attack rank:<\/p>\n Ninth in passer rating (97.1)19th in yards per attempt (6.9)17th in dropback EPA (0.066)20th in success rate (45.5%)<\/p>\n There\u2019s nothing particularly interesting or dynamic about the Steelers\u2019 passing attack. They very rarely test defenses deep, with Rodgers attempting just 34 passes of 20+ air yards (t-26th) resulting in just 26.1 yards per game (28th).<\/p>\n Rodgers has looked a little more comfortable in recent weeks with veterans Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling added to the receiving corps for the past two games, but that has always been against some questionable defenses.<\/p>\n D.K. Metcalf remains the biggest threat, as he has double the receiving yards (808) of anyone else on the team (TE Pat Freiermuth, 352).<\/p>\n While the Steelers typically get the ball out so quick that pass protection doesn\u2019t matter much, it\u2019s worth noting Pittsburgh could be starting their third-string left tackle and backup left guard.<\/p>\n Detroit\u2019s pass defense is in a bit of a rut, although they\u2019ve played some explosive attacks in the past three weeks. Still, allowing over 300 yards and above a 100 passer rating in three of their last four games is not exactly a promising development for a team hoping to hit its stride for a December playoff run.<\/p>\n That said, most statistics probably aren\u2019t as bad as you think right now. Detroit ranks:<\/p>\n 19th in passer rating (94.0)26th in yards per attempt (7.5)18th in dropback EPA (0.073)12th in success rate (45.0%)<\/p>\n I\u2019ll mention it again, the biggest problem with the unit is the continued explosive plays allowed. They\u2019ve allowed the most 20 and 30-yard pass plays. It\u2019s not particularly close when it comes to 30-yard pass plays, as they\u2019ve allowed 29, and the second most (Carolina, Chicago) have allowed just 21.<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a mixture of coverage and pressure that have failed them. While the secondary has been frustratingly close to making plays on deep shots (first in average separation, fifth on deep passes), they are giving up the seventh-highest EPA\/pass on deep passes. It certainly doesn\u2019t help that Detroit\u2019s pass rush ranks 29th in time to pressure.<\/p>\n The good news is the Steelers aren\u2019t a huge threat for deep shots, but don\u2019t be surprised if Rodgers attempts to test Detroit\u2019s secondaries with an abnormal amount of shot plays to Metcalf.<\/p>\n Player to watch: RB Kenneth Gainwell. By receptions, the Steelers\u2019 running backs rank first and third on the team. Gainwell leads the team with 57 catches for 332 yards and Jaylen Warren isn\u2019t far behind with 33 catches for 292 yards. Detroit has done a relatively good job defending running backs in the passing game (14th in DVOA), but they\u2019ll be tested more than ever.<\/p>\n Advantage: Draw. I can\u2019t in good faith give the Lions an advantage here. While I don\u2019t think it\u2019s likely Rodgers goes for 300 or more, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see the savvy veteran exploit some of Detroit\u2019s deep vulnerabilities. Still, if they stick to their normal game plan, it\u2019ll be death by a thousand cuts, which actually plays to Detroit\u2019s relative strengths.<\/p>\n Steelers run offense (12th) vs. Lions run defense (11th)<\/p>\n This is a fascinating disconnect between DVOA and our charts. By no means is this an explosive rushing attack. In fact, it\u2019s pretty darn bad. They\u2019ve only rushed for over 100 yards six times in 14 games, and they\u2019ve been held below 4.0 yards per carry in half of their games. But by some advanced metrics, they actually look a little better than you\u2019d think. Overall, they rank:<\/p>\n 28th in yards per carry (3.9)Ninth in rush EPA (-0.016)Eighth in rushing success rate (43.7%)<\/p>\n Pittsburgh lacks a big-play threat on the ground. They only have 30 rushes of 10+ yards (t-29th) and five of 20+ yards (t-26th). However, they are very efficient in short-yardage situations, ranking 11th in power success (they operate a version of the tush push) and third in red zone success rate (66.7%).<\/p>\n Very much like their passing attack, the run offense isn\u2019t explosive, but they gain yards when they need them and typically helps them avoid getting behind the chains.<\/p>\n The Lions have now allowed 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games, which is a stark contrast to the last four years of run defense in Detroit. There\u2019s still been far more good than bad for Detroit\u2019s defensive front, but the recent trends are certainly concerning.<\/p>\n On the season, the Lions rank:<\/p>\n Eighth in yards per carry (4.0)16th in rush EPA (-0.079)16th in success rate (41.0%)<\/p>\n Detroit typically doesn\u2019t give up big runs, allowing 42 runs of 10+ yards (16th), but just five rushes of 20+ yards (t-fourth). So that lines up nicely against the Steelers\u2019 non-explosive rushing attack. The Lions also still rank first in short-yardage run defense (49% success rate), but that number has dropped drastically after a ridiculously impressive start to the season.<\/p>\n One mildly concerning thing about this matchup is that the Rams saw a ton of success last week utilizing 13 personnel and jumbo packages. The Steelers are second behind the Rams in 13 personnel usage frequency. However, their efficiency numbers are nowhere close to each other.<\/p>\n 62.44 EPA (first)0.47 EPA per pass (fifth)0.10 EPA per rush (fourth)<\/p>\n Steelers in 13 personnel:<\/p>\n 2.71 EPA (11th)0.04 EPA per pass (21st)0.0 EPA per rush (13th)<\/p>\n Player to watch: Darnell Washington. The Steelers\u2019 massive tight end is key to Pittsburgh\u2019s rushing attack, and he carries the second-best run blocking grade (76.8) among all NFL tight ends.<\/p>\n Advantage: Draw. If I were to go completely based on the charts, this looks like a big advantage in Detroit\u2019s favor. But a deeper dive into the stats show pretty average units from both teams. Again, the Steelers aren\u2019t likely to have a monster day on the ground, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see them stay ahead of the chains regularly.<\/p>\n Last week\u2019s prediction:<\/p>\n Honestly, I thought I did a pretty good job with my column last week. I rightfully expressed doubt that Detroit would struggle to run the ball and stop the run. And it was basically a bingo free spot that Matthew Stafford would have a solid game. If there\u2019s one part of the game I didn\u2019t see coming, it was Detroit\u2019s success passing the ball, which kept the game closer than my 34-21 Rams prediction.<\/p>\n In the comment section (over on the predictions post<\/a>), Polishprince81 won the On Paper challenge with their 42-31 Rams prediction. Enjoy your prize:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n