offensive line<\/a> for both teams due to injury. That matters a lot. A lot of what decides this game is going to start, and possibly end, up front.<\/p>\nHere are five key statistical matchups that could swing it.<\/p>\n
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.<\/p>\n
More 13-personnel the merrier<\/p>\n
Similar to the Rams preview, you can\u2019t talk about the Steelers\u2019 offense without talking about their 13-personnel usage. Under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Pittsburgh leans into 13-personnel on 15.0% of their offensive snaps (2nd), deploying tight ends Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, and occasionally H-back Connor Heyward to fully embrace the offense\u2019s condensed, heavier-set identity.<\/p>\n
Fortunately for the Lions, the Steelers\u2019 run game doesn\u2019t actually gain much from loading the field with extra tight ends. Their rushing efficiency dips from 3.9 yards per rush overall (28th) to 3.8 yards per rush out of 13-personnel, while their rushing success rate slides from 49.1% (7th) to 48.1%. Their explosive run rate also drops from 5.4% (t-28th) to 3.7%. The lone area of improvement comes in yards before contact per rush, which rises from 1.14 (27th) to 1.37.<\/p>\n
While Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are a solid enough duo, this isn\u2019t a rushing attack that should scare Detroit\u2014especially with Pittsburgh down both left tackle Broderick Jones (IR) and left guard Isaac Seumalo (out) and center Zach Frazier dealing with a triceps injury. The Rams gashed the Lions on the ground, particularly out of 13-personnel (25 carries, 138 yards, three touchdowns), but this should be a ground game that Kelvin Sheppard\u2019s defense can control, limit damage against, and potentially force negative plays. Notably, the Steelers\u2019 stuff rate jumps from 16.6% overall to 23.5% when operating out of 13-personnel. Bottle it up, get them behind the sticks, and keep the defense from getting stuck on the field for extended stretches.<\/p>\n
Where 13-personnel does help Pittsburgh is in the passing game, giving Aaron Rodgers a tight-end-centric look that improves production across nearly every metric.<\/p>\n
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh Steelers \u2014 13-personnel passing offense<\/p>\n
98.9 passer rating68.9% completion percentage47.6% success rate0.00 EPA\/dropback11.1% explosive play rate<\/p>\n
Not breathtaking numbers by any means, but that\u2019s the reality of the Steelers\u2019 passing offense under their weathered signal caller. And 13-personnel remains one of their most effective groupings when they\u2019re hucking it. Despite the heavier bodies on the field, Pittsburgh still generates an impressive 6.24 yards after catch per completion from 13-personnel. That figure would rank third league-wide from all personnel groupings, trailing only their own overall mark (6.89) and the Lions (6.33).<\/p>\n
Detroit\u2019s linebackers and defensive backs will need to be ready to corral some large, hard-to-bring-down bodies like Washington and Metcalf, limiting the extra yards that quietly prop up this offense.<\/p>\n
The Steelers have five players ranked inside the NFL\u2019s top 30 in receiving yards from 13-personnel, led by Metcalf\u2019s 139 yards (3rd) and Freiermuth\u2019s 62 yards (15th). How the Lions handle Metcalf and the tight ends in coverage matchups will be one of the more intriguing chess matches in the game plan. If the Lions can keep 13-personnel from snowballing against them (again), the Steelers will be left asking Rodgers to win the game with an offense that doesn\u2019t exactly scare anyone.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s make this short and quick<\/p>\n
At this stage of his career, much like late-career Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers is deathly allergic to contact. Like my dog and the bathtub, he\u2019ll do just about anything to avoid it.<\/p>\n
Rodgers is tied with Tua Tagovailoa for the lowest average time to throw in the NFL at 2.65 seconds, while his 5.7 average depth of target ranks dead last among qualifying quarterbacks. Only 31.8% of his passes travel to or beyond the first-down marker, also last in the league. To stay upright, Rodgers is living on quick, short throws that effectively function as an extension of the run game\u2014a defining trait of the Steelers\u2019 passing offense right now.<\/p>\n
Defensively, the Lions have faced the second-fewest pass attempts of 2.5 seconds or less this season (210) and the second-fewest passes of five air yards or fewer (198).<\/p>\n
Lions pass defense \u2014 Short (\u22645 air yards) & Quick (\u22642.5 seconds)<\/p>\n
125 pass attempts (31st)8 passing touchdowns, 1 interception5.0 yards\/attempt (t-10th)81.6% completion percentage (20th)105.7 passer rating (23rd)50.4% offensive passing success rate (t-16th)-0.04 EPA\/dropback (t-19th)6.4% explosive play rate (24th)13.6% pressure rate (20th)<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, the Lions\u2019 pass defense hasn\u2019t just struggled recently\u2014it has been consistently below average all season against short, quick passing attacks. Teams have been able to chew up coverage for cheap yards with \u201cpea shooters\u201d that double as a run-game substitute, exactly what the Steelers will attempt to do. Those numbers dip even further against man coverage, where Detroit has already faced 49 short, quick attempts \u2014 the sixth-most in the league.<\/p>\n
The area where the Lions must win\u2014and have had success\u2014is limiting yards after the catch. Detroit allows just 4.3 YAC per completion overall (t-2nd) and only 5.1 on short, quick throws (t-3rd). That ability will be critical against Pittsburgh. On those plays, when Aidan Hutchinson and the pass rush can\u2019t meaningfully impact Rodgers\u2014the Lions have generated just 29 quick pressures this season (t-26th)\u2014coverage discipline and tackling become non-negotiable. That matters even more considering the Steelers rank among the league\u2019s worst passing offenses on plays requiring 3+ seconds to throw, where they\u2019re far more prone to sacks, turnovers, and incompletions (and, surprisingly, haven\u2019t even drawn a vintage Rodgers DPI prayer yet). The quickest way to the quarterback is right up the middle, so Alim McNeill and the interior pass rush could play a huge role in disrupting the quick rhythm throws if they can step up.<\/p>\n
Make Rodgers uncomfortable, erase the easy throws, and suddenly the Steelers are asking a 42-year-old quarterback to survive a game he\u2019s been trying to avoid all season.<\/p>\n
Possessions not at a premium<\/p>\n
Two other areas where the Steelers\u2019 offense consistently loses on the margins show up in their inability to sustain drives and control the game.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh ranks last in the NFL\u2014somehow even behind the Raiders\u2014in average time of possession at just 27:26. It\u2019s been even worse over the last three games, where they\u2019ve gone 2-1 despite averaging only 25:56 with the ball.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re also second-worst in the league, ahead of only the Raiders, with a 41.8% three-and-out rate. That figure is the third-worst single-season mark by any team since 2021 and sits in the bottom 10 league-wide over the past decade.<\/p>\n
That combination should allow the Lions offense to live on the field while keeping their defense from being overworked or gassed. It\u2019s an opportunity for Detroit to reassert its identity\u2014dictating tempo, controlling possession, and playing the game entirely on its own terms.<\/p>\n
Four-time First Team All-Pro T.J. Watt will miss just the 13th game of his nine-year career. Last week marked only the second win the Steelers have ever recorded without him, as they now sit at 2-10 in games Watt has missed.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh will also be without one of its other productive edge rushers in fellow Wisconsin alum Nick Herbig, who would normally fill in opposite Alex Highsmith. With both Watt and Herbig sidelined, that responsibility now falls to Day 3 rookie Jack Sawyer.<\/p>\n
Even if Watt hasn\u2019t been quite as dominant as his peak seasons, he remains a monster on the edge. Evaluating Steelers defensive metrics from this season can get thrown out the window because of how drastically the Steelers\u2019 defense changes without him \u2014 especially with Herbig also out. Over the past three seasons since Herbig was drafted, Pittsburgh has played roughly 180 snaps (about three games\u2019 worth) without either edge on the field, and the results have been ugly.<\/p>\n
With both players available, the Steelers allow a 44.8% offensive success rate. Without them, that number balloons to 52.2%\u2014a figure that would rank worst in the NFL over that span\u2014while also surrendering a 50.0% third-down conversion rate (32nd).<\/p>\n
Despite Pittsburgh still fielding a strong interior defensive line featuring Cameron Heyward, Keeanu Benton, and rookie Derrick Harmon\u2014and despite the Lions recently navigating a gauntlet of interior fronts from the Eagles, Cowboys, and Rams\u2014this matchup shifts without the threat of a presence on both edges. Against a familiar face in defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, and without Watt and Herbig, Detroit should be able to exploit defensive flaws that are typically masked by heat off the edge, particularly in the second and third levels.<\/p>\n
The Steelers have had no semblance of consistency at safety this season, cycling through the junk drawer of journeymen. Jalen Ramsey, Kyle Dugger, Juan Thornhill (since released), Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott, and Jabrill Peppers have all logged at least 100 snaps, with Pittsburgh most recently relying on the converted cornerback Ramsey alongside the acquired Dugger.<\/p>\n
One of the most vulnerable areas in their zone-heavy scheme\u2014exacerbated by that lack of continuity\u2014has been defending post routes. The Steelers have allowed 15 completions on post routes this season, the second-most in the NFL. In total, offenses are 15-of-21 throwing to posts against Pittsburgh, good for a 71.4% completion rate (31st), a 145.4 passer rating (29th), 280 yards, and two touchdowns.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, Jameson Williams specializes in vaporizing coverage on post routes. This season, Williams has eight receptions on posts (t-3rd), 240 receiving yards (3rd), one touchdown, and 104 yards after the catch (2nd).<\/p>\n
Look for the Lions to take at least one deep shot to Williams\u2014and for the Ford Field faithful to try to tear the roof off in response.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Well, well, well. Look what the cat dragged in. The Detroit Lions return to Ford Field for the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66838,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[21803,35469,73,75,74],"class_list":["post-66837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-pittsburgh","tag-detroit-lions-analysis","tag-detroit-lions-game-information","tag-pittsburgh","tag-pittsburgh-headlines","tag-pittsburgh-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}