Last week\u2019s record<\/a>: 1-3, -2.30 units
Season record: 20-12, +7.04 units, 20.0% ROI<\/p>\nOnly three plays on the card to kick things off this week, but I\u2019ll be looking to add some more in the coming days. It\u2019s hard to bet some totals this week as the weather could get a little tricky in a couple of games, so keep an eye out. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!<\/p>\n
Week 7 best betsPittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-105) at Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Steelers -5.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
Trey Hendrickson is expected to be out tonight for the Bengals, and that\u2019s bad news for this defense. This firmly makes the Cincinnati defense the worst in the league according to my model, and the matchup couldn\u2019t be worse tonight. This season, Aaron Rodgers ranks 32nd out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when facing pressure, according to TruMedia. When he\u2019s facing no pressure? He ranks seventh. That\u2019s enough for me to think the Steelers score enough to win by the margin tonight.<\/p>\n
Houston Texans +3 (-102) at Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Texans +3 (-110)<\/p>\n
Listen, the Seahawks have been impressive this year. They\u2019re playing well on both sides of the ball, and that\u2019s more than what the Texans can say. I still don\u2019t have a ton of faith in the Houston offense, but I think this matchup favors the Texans\u2019 defense. Sam Darnold and the offense have been awesome in the early going of 2025, but they\u2019re very reliant on explosive plays. The Seahawks offense ranks third in explosive plays, but the Texans defense ranks eighth in explosive plays allowed. The Texans have an argument for the best defense in the league, and I\u2019m backing them on Monday night.<\/p>\n
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-104) at Detroit Lions<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Buccaneers +4.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
Baker Mayfield has been playing at an MVP level so far this season, and it\u2019s time for me to back him in a marquee matchup. If history has told me anything, I\u2019m sure the Bucs offense and Mayfield will be dreadful in this spot, but my model can\u2019t get to this number. The Bucs have had a solid injury report so far today, and there is a possibility they get a handful of players back, including Mike Evans. We all know the Lions\u2019 secondary has been riddled with injuries, and I think Mayfield can make them pay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Some weeks you win, some weeks you lose. Week 6 of the NFL season was a losing week…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7423,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[6516,1418,73,75,74,1833,6518,6517],"class_list":["post-7422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-pittsburgh","tag-houston-texans","tag-nfl","tag-pittsburgh","tag-pittsburgh-headlines","tag-pittsburgh-news","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-sports-betting","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}