![\"U.S.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/IMG_6014_dfda9e.jpg\")
U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (John Worthington \u2013 MediaNews Group)<\/p>\nPennsylvania is likely to play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, with four U.S. House seats expected to be competitive \u2014 more than any other state.<\/p>\n
\u201cEach of these districts are within a couple of points,\u201d said pollster Berwood Yost of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. \u201cThere aren\u2019t a lot of competitive districts across the United States, and so both parties want to retain those districts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yost is the director of the Center for Opinion Research and the director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at the school.<\/p>\n
Tight margins in three races \u2014 two of which were Republican pick-ups in 2024 \u2014 make them\u00a0targets for Democrats\u00a0looking to regain control of the House. Another seat in the Philadelphia suburbs is a perennial goal for the Democratic Party, but voters have remained loyal to the GOP.<\/p>\n
Though all 19 of the commonwealth\u2019s congressional districts will be on the ballot next year, the four closely watched races and their incumbents are:<\/p>\n
First Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
\n7th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie
\n8th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan
\n10th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Scott Perry<\/p>\n
But Yost noted challenges for the quartet.<\/p>\n
October poll results\u00a0from F&M, overseen by Yost, reported 36% of respondents felt \u201cworse off\u201d financially than they were a year ago in the commonwealth. One area where prices will increase substantially in 2026 are health care costs for moderate-income Pennsylvanians using marketplace plans.<\/p>\n
Congress opted not to extend enhanced subsidies at this time, which Yost said would be \u201can albatross\u201d on candidates.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt makes all of these people vulnerable,\u201d he continued. \u201cBecause everybody\u2019s going to know somebody who either drops their coverage or is complaining about what they\u2019re paying for coverage.\u201d<\/p>\n
Three of those Republicans \u2014 Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie and Bresnahan \u2014\u00a0signed onto a discharge petition\u00a0on Dec. 17 to force a vote on extending subsidies, breaking with party leadership.<\/p>\n
That poll also identified a drop in President Donald Trump\u2019s popularity, with 41% believing he was doing an \u201cexcellent\u201d or \u201cgood\u201d job, compared to 58% who believed he was doing a \u201cfair\u201d or \u201cpoor\u201d job.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a relationship between seats lost and presidential popularity,\u201d said Yost. \u201cThe less popular the president, the more seats they tend to lose.\u201d<\/p>\n
Neither Mackenzie nor Bresnahan have a long congressional record in their districts, making them more at risk, Yost said. Fitzpatrick and Perry, on the other hand, have both held onto their seats against previous challenges.<\/p>\n
The greater political climate<\/p>\n
James Markley, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, told the Capital-Star that next year wouldn\u2019t be much different from previous cycles.<\/p>\n
\u201c2026 will be a challenge, but Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. Our elections are always competitive,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Wins from 2024 \u2014 from Trump down to two congressional seats that flipped from Democratic to Republican \u2014 were \u201ctremendous victories,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
\u201cNew members like Congressman Ryan MacKenzie and Congressman Rob Bresnahan are already leaving their mark on our country. Our goal is to make sure we send them back to D.C. to continue the hard work they\u2019re doing everyday for our commonwealth and our country.\u201d<\/p>\n
But as Trump\u2019s approval ratings fall, Democrats across the nation hope to tie sitting Republicans to his administration.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll four of Pennsylvania\u2019s swing-seat Republican congressmen are uniquely vulnerable due to their own failures and self-inflicted wounds: Bresnahan has become the poster-child of Washington corruption and is stock trading away his seat, Mackenzie is a late-night TV punchline for taking marching orders from his party bosses, Fitzpatrick has become Trump\u2019s doormat, and Perry is so extreme that he disparaged veterans who don\u2019t share his politics,\u201d said Eli Cousin, the Mid-Atlantic regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat Bresnahan, Mackenzie, Fitzpatrick, and Perry all have in common is the fact that they have overseen skyrocketing costs on everything from health care to groceries to electricity \u2013 and they will be held accountable for their records at the ballot box next November,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n
Voters in midterm elections frequently turn to the minority party in Congress, but could also boost a Pennsylvania politician who is believed to have national ambitions.<\/p>\n
As reported by Axios, Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is running for re-election next year, seeks to \u201cengineer a blowout\u201d in the 2026 midterms in order to gain an edge ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries. At the heart of the strategy: flipping all four congressional seats.<\/p>\n
Two candidates openly have the backing of Shapiro in central Pennsylvania, and he appears to have favorites in the other districts, according to the publication.<\/p>\n
1st Congressional District: a Philly suburb<\/p>\n
Straddling two Philadelphia collar counties \u2014 Bucks County and part of Montgomery County \u2014 U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, has retained the seat even as the district swung between the two parties in 2020 and 2024 elections.<\/p>\n
U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (John Worthington \u2013 MediaNews Group)<\/p>\n
A former special assistant U.S. attorney and FBI agent, Fitzpatrick succeeded his brother, Mike, and won a seat for the first time in 2016. A Fitzpatrick has represented the area since 2008.<\/p>\n
In 2024, Fitzpatrick earned re-election with 56% of the vote, more than 59,000 votes ahead of Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz.<\/p>\n
Politico analysts believe that the 2025 election results could spell trouble for the incumbent, however, after Democrats won several local seats. Most recently, Inside Elections\u00a0moved the district\u00a0from \u201clikely Republican\u201d to \u201cleans,\u201d citing November\u2019s results in the area.<\/p>\n
Across the aisle, a slate of Democrats have filed to to run against Fitzpatrick, including:<\/p>\n
Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie
\nDelaware Valley University professor Tracy Hunt
\nAttorney Lucia Dora Simonelli
\nAnd eyewear company manager Robert Strickler<\/p>\n
Axios reported that Shapiro has \u201cquietly\u201d backed Harvie, though it isn\u2019t official. John Hoban, an independent, is also running for the seat.<\/p>\n
7th Congressional District: A Lehigh Valley \u201ctoss-up\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the most competitive seats in the country is expected to be the Lehigh Valley\u2019s 7th Congressional District.<\/p>\n
Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, edged out incumbent Democrat Susan Wild with 50.5% of the vote, a 4,000-vote margin, in 2024. Wild had two terms under her belt.<\/p>\n
![\"U.S.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TMC-L-Vance51.jpg\")
U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie speaks Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, at a Uline warehouse in Lower Macungie Township before an address by Vice President JD Vance on the economy. (Monica Cabrera\/The Morning Call)<\/p>\n
Roll Call ranks Mackenzie as the\u00a0fourth most \u201cvulnerable\u201d\u00a0incumbent, and all three major election forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections) label the race as a \u201ctoss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the national Republican fundraising arm seems to hope for a bruising primary, pointing to a December\u00a0Politico report on \u201cdeep divisions\u201d within Democrat ranks. A\u00a0Dec. 1 post\u00a0from the GOP called the primary \u201ca microcosm of the whole party: messy, out of touch, and having no clear direction.\u201d<\/p>\n
Running for the Democratic nomination:<\/p>\n
Bob Brooks, firefighter and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association
\nFormer federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell
\nNorthampton County Executive Lamont G. McClure
\nFormer PPL Electrics Utilities executive Carol Obando-Derstine
\nLehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley<\/p>\n
Combined, the six Democratic contenders raised\u00a0more than $1.5 million\u00a0by October, months ahead of the May 19 primary vote.<\/p>\n
Shapiro\u00a0endorsed Brooks in December, headlining a fundraiser for the candidate later that month. Obando-Derstine\u00a0has the support of Wild, who previously held the seat, and\u00a0an endorsement from Emily\u2019s List, an abortion rights organization.<\/p>\n
8th Congressional District: Stocks and Scranton<\/p>\n
Though Trump solidly won the Pocono-based district, boosting Republican Rob Bresnahan\u2019s 2024 victory to flip the longtime Democrat-held seat, questions over stock trades have plagued the incumbent.<\/p>\n
In 2024, Bresnahan defeated incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright with nearly 51% of the vote, or more than 6,000 votes. In that time, he has made over 600 stock trades, some of which came ahead of crucial votes \u2014 spurring accusations that he used his position to make advantageous trading decisions.<\/p>\n
![\"State](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/STT-L-DROZ-1206-03.jpg\")
Rep. Rob Bresnahan speaks at the Geisinger Community Medical Center Professional Building in Scranton Friday, December 5, 2025. (SEAN MCKEAG \/ Times-Tribune)<\/p>\n
One such vote includes the decision to sharply cut federal Medicaid funding by adding work requirements and limiting state oversight on provider taxes.\u00a0The New York Times\u00a0reports that Bresnahan sold between $100,001 and $250,000 worth of bonds issued by the Allegheny County Hospital Development Authority for the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.<\/p>\n
He also sold up to $15,000 of stock in Centene, the country\u2019s largest Medicaid plan provider. NBC News additionally reported\u00a0another $130,000\u00a0in Medicaid-related stocks Bresnahan sold.<\/p>\n
In defense of his moves, Bresnahan said he\u00a0doesn\u2019t tell his financial advisors what to do\u00a0with stock purchases.<\/p>\n
The freshman lawmaker, whose initial wealth came from the sale of his family\u2019s construction business, campaigned on the promise to end lawmaker stock trading. In December, he signed a petition\u00a0to force a vote\u00a0on a bill to ban congressional stock trading.<\/p>\n
The Democratic contenders are:<\/p>\n
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti
\nFrancis McHale, a former attorney with the state Dept. of Labor and Industry
\nAnd Scranton-based Eric Stone<\/p>\n
Cognetti\u00a0launched her bid\u00a0for the seat while running for reelection this fall, followed by McHale, who\u00a0criticized Cognetti\u00a0for the dual campaigns.<\/p>\n
Shapiro has \u201cquietly\u201d backed Cognetti, according to Axios.<\/p>\n
10th Congressional District: a 2024 rematch<\/p>\n
While the other three Republicans don\u2019t yet have challengers within their own party, the same can\u2019t be said for U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a\u00a0retired\u00a0Army National Guard\u00a0brigadier general who served in Iraq.<\/p>\n
![\"U.S.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Congress_Trump_Politics_48508.jpg\")
U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-10th District, during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2024, in Oxon Hill, Md., on Feb. 22, 2024. He\u2019s one congressman who could face a tough reelection bid in 2026. (AP Photo\/Jose Luis Magana)<\/p>\n
Representing the 10th Congressional District, which includes all of Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York counties, at least two GOP challengers have lined up: Karen Dalton, a former staff attorney at the capitol, and Josh Hall.<\/p>\n
Along with Mackenzie\u2019s Lehigh Valley seat, Perry\u2019s race is\u00a0considered to be a toss-up\u00a0by election ratings agencies. Perry has held a seat in Congress since 2013 and previously served in the state legislature.<\/p>\n
He won re-election two years ago by less than 51%, just over 5,000 votes ahead of Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former television news anchor. Stelson\u00a0has the nod from Shapiro, who\u00a0headlined a fundraiser campaign launch\u00a0for her in July.<\/p>\n
Stelson also faces a primary before a potential rematch against Perry. Also running for the Democratic nomination are:<\/p>\n
Carlisle-based Jason Cass
\nDauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas
\nAnd Army veteran William Lillich<\/p>\n
Independent Isabella Harman, also an Army veteran, is\u00a0also running for the seat.<\/p>\n
Within this district and other competitive primaries, Yost noted that the right primary candidate can make a difference.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor both parties, there have been times when base primary voters deliver a candidate that suffers at the general election,\u201d said Yost.<\/p>\n
Following the May primaries, the general election will be Nov. 3, 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the fundamental question underlying all of these races is, \u2018How big is the anti-Trump sentiment? How large is the wave or how well can these congressional Republicans separate themselves from people\u2019s feelings about Trump?\u201d Yost said. \u201cWe\u2019ll have to wait and see.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pennsylvania is likely to play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76947,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[836,182,139,28,30,29,50,432],"class_list":{"0":"post-76946","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-pennsylvania","8":"tag-election","9":"tag-local-news","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-pennsylvania","12":"tag-pennsylvania-headlines","13":"tag-pennsylvania-news","14":"tag-politics","15":"tag-top-stories-tmc"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-pa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}