Cole Hamels knew it for years, even before pitching his last major league game. Eventually, a day would come when his name appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot.<\/p>\n
Even so, there was something about actually seeing it.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen they do put your name on the ballot, they send you a letter,\u201d Hamels recently told Phillies Extra<\/a>, The Inquirer\u2019s baseball podcast. \u201cYou can frame it.\u201d<\/p>\n Better yet, cast it in bronze, just like those plaques on the walls in Cooperstown, N.Y. Because although only one, maybe two former players on this year\u2019s ballot will get elected Tuesday night and inducted this summer, all 27 had careers worth recognizing. <\/p>\n \u00bb READ MORE: \u2018Phillies Extra\u2019 Q&A: Cole Hamels on Kyle Schwarber\u2019s return, his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot, and more<\/a><\/p>\n Take, for instance, Hamels. He finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA six times in 15 seasons, 10 of which came with the Phillies<\/a>. He ranks fourth in Phillies history in strikeouts (2,560) and sixth in innings (2,698). He was the MVP of the 2008 World Series<\/a> and threw a no-hitter in 2015 in his final Phillies start.<\/p>\n By every measure, a brilliant career.<\/p>\n Yet Hamels\u2019 name might be checked on fewer than one-quarter of the 400 or so ballots \u2014 and not the one cast by this voter. Hamels was polling at 31.1% as of Friday evening, according to industrious ballot collector Ryan Thibodaux\u2019s tracker<\/a>, more than the minimum 5% to stay on the ballot, far from the 75% for election.<\/p>\n But here\u2019s what makes baseball\u2019s Hall of Fame special: the quality of the players on the 1-yard line, a Tush Push<\/a> from getting in. (Too soon for the Eagles reference?)<\/p>\n Consider that less than 24,000 players have made it to the majors, even for one day. A fraction of those stuck around for 10 years, the minimum requirement to be considered by the screening committee that annually puts together the Hall of Fame ballot.<\/p>\n Whittle it all down, and only about 5% of all major leaguers see their name on that sheet of paper. And since the inaugural Hall class in 1936, a total of 279 players have been elected, only 137 on the writers\u2019 ballot.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not a disservice to anyone that doesn\u2019t get that checkmark in any single year,\u201d said Hamels, making his ballot debut this year. \u201cThey\u2019re all some of the best baseball players that I was fortunate to play against.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, that\u2019s helpful to remember when the results are announced at 6 p.m. Tuesday on MLB Network.<\/p>\n \u00bb READ MORE: Top 2026 Phillies storylines: J.T. Realmuto or Bo Bichette, Zack Wheeler\u2019s return, and more<\/a><\/p>\n Full disclosure: I voted for Carlos Beltr\u00e1n, F\u00e9lix Hern\u00e1ndez, Dustin Pedroia, Andy Pettitte, and Chase Utley. Pedroia was the only addition to my ballot from last year. I strongly considered Hamels, in addition to David Wright, Andruw Jones, and Jimmy Rollins and might come around on some, or all, next year.<\/p>\n Every voter has a threshold for where to draw the 1-yard line. Over the years, my tendency has been to favor players who had a big peak, even if they lacked the longevity of classic Hall of Famers. Hern\u00e1ndez, Pedroia, and Utley fall into that category.<\/p>\n For observers of the Phillies, it was another loaded ballot, with four candidates \u2014 Bobby Abreu, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley \u2014 who spent the bulk of their careers with the team. Howie Kendrick and Hunter Pence briefly played for the Phillies; Kendrick works for them as a special assistant.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s dive into the Hall of Fame candidacies of the four longtime Phillies, from the most to the least likely to eventually get elected.<\/p>\n Chase Utley<\/p>\n Years on the ballot: Three<\/p>\n 2025 vote total: 39.8%<\/p>\n The writers haven\u2019t elected a player with fewer than 2,000 career hits since Ralph Kiner in 1975.<\/p>\n Utley finished with 1,885.<\/p>\n But Utley appears to be trending toward eventual election, likely because of the height of a peak that lasted at least six seasons and, if you squint, as many as 10. From 2005 to 2014, he had a 127 OPS+ and ranked second among second basemen in extra-base hits behind Robinson Can\u00f3, who was suspended twice for failing a drug test. Utley also had the second-most wins above replacement of any player, trailing only Albert Pujols.<\/p>\n Utley made a healthy ballot debut (28.8%) in 2024, then got an 11-point bump last year. Without a strong first-year candidate, he\u2019s set for his biggest leap yet, tracking above 60% in early returns, although players don\u2019t tend to fare as well among voters who don\u2019t make their ballot public.<\/p>\n Second basemen are historically underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. The writers have elected only two (Craig Biggio and Roberto Alomar) since 2006. Jeff Kent was elected last month<\/a> by an era committee after topping out at 46.5% in 10 years on the writers\u2019 ballot. Maybe it will help Utley and Pedroia with the writers.<\/p>\n Utley already got to almost 40% in only his second go-around. His statistics won\u2019t change, but voters\u2019 perspectives often do. It wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see Utley climb over 50% this year and get the call to Cooperstown sometime around, oh, 2028.<\/p>\n Cole Hamels<\/p>\n Years on the ballot: One<\/p>\n Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Pedro Mart\u00ednez, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz went into the Hall of Fame in a two-year parade of starting pitchers in 2014 and \u201915.<\/p>\n Since then, the writers have elected only three starters.<\/p>\n Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, and CC Sabathia will be joined in five years by Clayton Kershaw and eventually by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Maybe Zack Greinke, too. But beyond that group, who\u2019s the next surefire Hall of Fame starter?<\/p>\n At a time when teams ask less of their starters than before, in an age of reduced workloads and an arm-injury epidemic that has shortened careers, starters no longer reach the classic benchmarks \u2014 300 wins, 3,000 strikeouts, etc. \u2014 that the all-time greats once did.<\/p>\n \u00bb READ MORE: From last year: Rethinking Andy Pettitte\u2019s Hall of Fame case and what it might mean for Cole Hamels\u2019 chances in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n It has been reflected in Hall of Fame voting. Johan Santana had a six-year peak with two Cy Young Awards and five top-five finishes but dropped off the ballot after one year because he apparently wasn\u2019t dominant for long enough.<\/p>\n Voters appear to be recalibrating. Hern\u00e1ndez\u2019s peak lasted slightly longer than Santana\u2019s and featured one Cy Young and two runners-up. He appeared on 20.6% of ballots as a first-time candidate last year and was tracking at better than 50%.<\/p>\n It\u2019s difficult to assert that Hamels\u2019 career, which didn\u2019t include a top-three Cy Young finish, reached King F\u00e9lix\u2019s heights. But check out their numbers from 2007 to 2016:<\/p>\n Hamels: average of 208.2 innings, 126 ERA-plus, 46.5 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. <\/p>\n Hern\u00e1ndez: average of 214 innings, 129 ERA-plus, 47.2.<\/p>\n It\u2019s close. Fortunately, Hamels will get additional consideration. He\u2019s going to hang around on the ballot, maybe even topping Hern\u00e1ndez\u2019s first-year total.<\/p>\n Jimmy Rollins<\/p>\n Years on the ballot: Five<\/p>\n 2025 vote total: 18.0%<\/p>\n Rollins\u2019 significance to the Phillies would be undeniable even if he wasn\u2019t their all-time hits leader. He was a soothsaying league MVP in 2007 and a World Series champion in 2008, and authored one of the biggest postseason hits in team history in the 2009 NL Championship Series.<\/p>\n The Phillies\u2019 143-year story can\u2019t be written without their best shortstop.<\/p>\n But many Hall of Famers were franchise icons. Should every franchise icon be a Hall of Famer?<\/a><\/p>\n The writers didn\u2019t vote in Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly, whose excellence symbolized an era for the Braves and Yankees, respectively. Lou Whitaker didn\u2019t get into the Hall of Fame after 19 starry seasons with the Tigers.<\/p>\n And thus far, J-Roll hasn\u2019t gotten much traction either.<\/p>\n Despite sharing the middle infield with Utley for a dozen seasons, Rollins hasn\u2019t matched his double-play partner\u2019s ballot momentum. He debuted at 9.4% in 2022 and made only modest increases: 12.9% in 2023, 14.8% in 2024, and 18% last year. He\u2019s tracking at about 23%, which would signal another small bump.<\/p>\n Rollins\u2019 supporters within the electorate often note that he\u2019s the only shortstop ever with at least 2,000 hits, 200 homers, and 400 steals. He also won a league MVP, four Gold Gloves, and a World Series ring.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s difficult to ignore Rollins\u2019 below-league-average OPS+ (95), although it wouldn\u2019t be the lowest ever for a Hall of Fame shortstop (Phil Rizzuto, Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, and Rabbit Maranville were worse).<\/p>\n Bobby Abreu<\/p>\n Years on the ballot: Seven<\/p>\n 2025 vote total: 19.5%<\/p>\n Twenty-one players had at least 900 extra-base hits and 1,400 walks. Here\u2019s the list: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Carl Yastrzemski, Pete Rose, Mike Schmidt<\/a>, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones \u2026 and Abreu.<\/p>\n Good company, right?<\/p>\n