One thing I’ve learned from writing the Reacts series of articles over several years is that fan confidence is a wobbly thing that is heavily influenced by the most recent events.
In the NFC East this week, the fan base with the highest level of confidence if that of the last-place New York Giants — the only division team to have won a game in Week 6. That win was a doozy of an upset, with the Giants stepping on the throats of the 1st place Philadelphia Eagles, crushing them by a score of 34-17 on Thursday Night Football. Much of the confidence expressed by Giants fans comes from that victory, but they have been a pretty buoyant fan base all season because of their belief in rookie QB Jaxson Dart (and despite the loss for the season of their young star receiver Malik Nabers).
Eagles fans, who opened the season with a 96% confidence score, have been on a downward trend ever since. The Philly offense has appeared broken and dysfunctional through most of the 6 games the team has played, even when the Eagles opened up with 4 straight wins. We’ve seen this before from Philly; sometimes the team pulls out of the funk to win a super bowl and sometimes the season crashes and burns around their ears. The loss to the Giants this week felt a lot like the ‘crashing and burning’ variety, but let’s see what happens on Sunday when Philadelphia takes on the Vikings in Minnesota before we declare the patient — who is 4-2 and in the division lead — dead.
The Cowboys fans opened the season with low numbers in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade and have never really recovered despite having the league’s most prolific offense in terms of yards and the 3rd most prolific in terms of points. In 7 weeks, Dallas fan confidence has peeked above 50% only once, in Week 2 of the season. It’s current level (11%) is driven by having a sub-.500 record and the league’s worst defense (measured by yards surrendered) or 2nd worst (measured by points surrendered). Dallas fans were horrified to see their team lose to the Carolina Panthers last weekend.
Commanders fans were equally dismayed by the loss, on Monday night, to the Bears on a walk-off field goal by the Chicago kicker. Washington had the lead, the ball, and 3:10 on the game clock facing a 3rd down and needing 1 yard to start to ice the victory when disaster struck in the form of a lost fumble on a mishandled snap due to a wet, slick football. While there’s been a lot of ‘sky is falling’ commentary from Commanders fans since the loss, the fact is, that slick-ball fumble is the key mistake that prevented Washington from exiting that game with a win that would have secured first-place in the NFC East.
Even with the loss, there’s a lot of context around the current 3-3 record:
Only 6 teams in the NFC have more wins than the CommandersOnly the Lions and Seahawks (each at 49) have a better point differential than the Commanders (+32)Washington is the only NFC East team with a positive point differentialThe Commanders sit just one game back of the Eagles; Sunday’s game in Dallas offers an opportunity to improve the team’s overall record, NFC record, and remain undefeated in the NFC East
What lies beyond Week 7 for the Commanders?
Washington will have played on the road in 4 of their last 6 games by the time the Cowboys game ends, and they have one more road game on Monday in Week 8 in Kansas City.
The reward for that brutal road schedule — starting in Week 9 at home against the Seahawks — will be five home games, three games in opposing teams’ stadiums, and one neutral site game (in Madrid) against the Miami Dolphins, who are currently 1-5 with a -40 point differential in 6 games.
If the Commanders can get the win in Dallas to move to 4-3 this week, they have a pretty decent chance of reaching Week 15 with at least 6 or 7 wins in 13 games. With the final 4 games of the season coming against all NFC East opponents, the Commanders should have the opportunity to take the NFC East crown if they are playing their best football in late-December and January like they did last year.
What are the expectations for Week 7?
While our Hogs Haven Reacts polls are carried out via voting here on the site, SB Nation Reacts polls are undertaken via email weekly, with respondents comprising fans of all 32 teams.
This week, Hogs Haven readers and respondents in the national survey agree about the predicted outcomes of the Philly-Minnesota game and the Washington-Dallas game.
Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
For the third consecutive week, the national survey prediction for Thursday Night Football was wrong. As we are probably all aware by now, Joe Flacco led the Bengals to an unexpected win over the Steelers in front of a raucous partisan crowd in Cincinnati to keep hope alive for the ‘Who dey?’ fan base.
So, we know that the predictions are fallible, but both surveys are predicting wins for the Commanders and Eagles (as well as the Denver Broncos, who host the Giants for a 4:05pm game on Sunday afternoon).
If those predictions all hold true, then the Eagles and Commanders would increase the current lead over the Cowboys and Giants, who would each fall a game further below .500. Of course, a loss by the Eagles and a win by Washington would see the Commanders take over the top spot in the division. By contrast, a win by the Eagles and a loss by the Commanders would see Washington fall to 3-4 and into 3rd place in the division behind the 3-3-1 Cowboys. While this matchup in Dallas was always going to be a big game, the loss to Chicago on Monday night has magnified the downside risk for the Commanders. Washington definitely needs the win; unfortunately, the Cowboys feel much the same way about their situation.
Look for a high-scoring ‘shootout’. While Washington’s defense has taken a lot of heat from fans lately, the Commanders are ranked 13th (slightly above average) in points surrendered per game through six weeks despite being ranked 25th in yards. Dak Prescott and his high-powered offense should have a lot of opportunities against this middling defense.
Washington’s offense is not far behind the Cowboys in points-scoring, ranking 7th in the NFL in points per game, and 13th in yards per game. The Commanders haven’t been throwing the ball a lot, but are in a virtual 3-way tie with Buffalo and Atlanta for the best rushing attack at 151 yards per game. We saw against Chicago, however, that Jayden Daniels (19-26, 211 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) can make the passing game work, even without Terry McLaurin. He may have to do it again against a Dallas defense that is ranked last in the NFL against the pass (270 yards per game) but ‘only’ 29th vs the run (142 yards per game).
Kickoff is at 4:25pm and the game will be widely televised on FOX (the other FOX game will be the Cardinals at the Packers).